Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 12z ec ens still pretty warm in the wed-sat time period (after a pretty sharp cold snap tuesday - which i actually think the GEFS showed first yesterday FWIW) but they too have a general oozing southward of cold air by next weekend. Heavy heavy low level cold. Pete repete, Ryan will not like this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Heavy heavy low level cold. Pete repete, Ryan will not like this post. i like the idea that scooter has been pushing of an oscillating pattern. maybe some of the teleconnectors shift, but that's where i'd lean right now. good thing is that doesn't mean it can't be fun...and i'd actually welcome that kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 i like the idea that scooter has been pushing of an oscillating pattern. maybe some of the teleconnectors shift, but that's where i'd lean right now. good thing is that doesn't mean it can't be fun...and i'd actually welcome that kind of pattern. Really climo for a while until the AO bomb drops is the way I see it. Lots of volatility and air mass battles looming as usual in late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just catching up after being gone all day. Nice to see the torch getting muted a little bit in the long range. Clipper/redeveloper potential hasn't improved much...doesn't look like much will come out of that threat...maybe an inch or two. A long ways out but ensembles and the OP EC/GFS all have some pretty good overrunning potential after Feb 20th. Hopefully that pattern can set up and start us off for a solid month finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 i like the idea that scooter has been pushing of an oscillating pattern. maybe some of the teleconnectors shift, but that's where i'd lean right now. good thing is that doesn't mean it can't be fun...and i'd actually welcome that kind of pattern. Seasonably mild when the pattern sucks as opposed to never-ending dry and cold, inter-mingled with semi-transient periods of cold and snow. I would welcome something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just catching up after being gone all day. Nice to see the torch getting muted a little bit in the long range. Clipper/redeveloper potential hasn't improved much...doesn't look like much will come out of that threat...maybe an inch or two. A long ways out but ensembles and the OP EC/GFS all have some pretty good overrunning potential after Feb 20th. Hopefully that pattern can set up and start us off for a solid month finale. I have my remote on mute, hopefully it mutes a little more and we end up with a last weekend deal then back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 12z ec ens still pretty warm in the wed-sat time period (after a pretty sharp cold snap tuesday - which i actually think the GEFS showed first yesterday FWIW) but they too have a general oozing southward of cold air by next weekend. Are they alot warmer than the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I was just looking at the FROPA on Saturday afternoon and the NAM has a good look on the WINDEX checklist.. 1. Steep LL lapse rates....check 2. Good low to mid-level RH....check 3. Big 6-12h LI spike...check 4. Good PVA for lift....check We could see some nice snow squalls Sat afternoon or Sat evening if that look remains intact. No guarantees though as those setups are always subject to small changes. Euro is slightly too far north of optimal but the 18z NAM and 18z GFS both look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 i like the idea that scooter has been pushing of an oscillating pattern. maybe some of the teleconnectors shift, but that's where i'd lean right now. good thing is that doesn't mean it can't be fun...and i'd actually welcome that kind of pattern. Yeah it's possible we see something like that. Maybe a pattern that goes 2 storms cold---------1 storm warm..or vice-versa. Quite possible it doesn't even go that route...just one of the many possibilities I guess. The euro ensembles actually have split flow in western Canada. This in turn leads to some troughing in the northeast after d10. There is some ridging into the nao region as Nick alluded to. I just would like to see an active pattern..preferably overrunning, but at least it does look to turn more active after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Are they alot warmer than the op? bump for answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Are they alot warmer than the op? I think it's more that they keep the torch lasting longer. They don't show the sneaky cold fropa on Thursday that the op has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I was just looking at the FROPA on Saturday afternoon and the NAM has a good look on the WINDEX checklist.. 1. Steep LL lapse rates....check 2. Good low to mid-level RH....check 3. Big 6-12h LI spike...check 4. Good PVA for lift....check We could see some nice snow squalls Sat afternoon or Sat evening if that look remains intact. No guarantees though as those setups are always subject to small changes. Euro is slightly too far north of optimal but the 18z NAM and 18z GFS both look good. That's actually a real good signal. Even if we didn't have that LI spike..all the others look good, which is enough for me. As you said, these setups can fall apart as time goes by, but not bad. Good RH is big to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 That's actually a real good signal. Even if we didn't have that LI spike..all the others look good, which is enough for me. As you said, these setups can fall apart as time goes by, but not bad. Good RH is big to me. The biggest components seem to be good RH up to like 700mb (but you can get away with a little lower even) and steep LL lapse rates.The lift in these windex events seems to be centered a bit lower like in LES....but if you can get it higher, all the better. During the Jan 28th event last year, we had saturation up to like 400mb, lol...and huge lift right through 700mb and much higher. It was about as good as a signal as it gets which is why we had so much thunder and lightning from that line....esp out in western and central MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ginx needs to chime in for a WINDEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The biggest components seem to be good RH up to like 700mb (but you can get away with a little lower even) and steep LL lapse rates.The lift in these windex events seems to be centered a bit lower like in LES....but if you can get it higher, all the better. During the Jan 28th event last year, we had saturation up to like 400mb, lol...and huge lift right through 700mb and much higher. It was about as good as a signal as it gets which is why we had so much thunder and lightning from that line....esp out in western and central MA If I recall correctly..there was alot of thunder snow all along the 84 corridor in CT almost simutaneously. I had 2 flashes and bangs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ginx needs to chime in for a WINDEX Yeah this is the first one all year that looks decent...though it can change. I remember we saw the Jan 28 one last year from at least 2 days out...maybe even a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I was just looking at the FROPA on Saturday afternoon and the NAM has a good look on the WINDEX checklist.. 1. Steep LL lapse rates....check 2. Good low to mid-level RH....check 3. Big 6-12h LI spike...check 4. Good PVA for lift....check We could see some nice snow squalls Sat afternoon or Sat evening if that look remains intact. No guarantees though as those setups are always subject to small changes. Euro is slightly too far north of optimal but the 18z NAM and 18z GFS both look good. Ohh la la, only thing left off my winter check list 20 inch snowstorm .....check twice Record snow depth.......check Long lasting snow pack......check Tsnow..............................check twice Record cold....................check Severe Tstorm on a two foot snow pack.......check Ice storm........................check Strong Windex squall...........unchecked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 EVen the 18z GFS wants to drive the coldfront close to sne on Thursday, but gets hung up in NNE. It's close. The other issue is that it's possible the torch is prolonged into early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 1-3 Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 1-3 Monday? Fast foreward to march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Fast foreward to march. Winter returns next Saturday dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 EVen the 18z GFS wants to drive the coldfront close to sne on Thursday, but gets hung up in NNE. It's close. The other issue is that it's possible the torch is prolonged into early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Winter returns next Saturday dude Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 EVen the 18z GFS wants to drive the coldfront close to sne on Thursday, but gets hung up in NNE. It's close. The other issue is that it's possible the torch is prolonged into early Saturday morning. Yeah that's sort of the downside of that thur energy.. It could bog progression down temporarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Fast foreward to march. What is up? You are blowing off the last week of Feb too now, looks like a stormy fun filled week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 LOL, here comes the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 LOL, here comes the battle. I knew what I was doing, too.......here comes the gang-rape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah that's sort of the downside of that thur energy.. It could bog progression down temporarily Pick your poison..lol. In any case, we'll see what happens I guess. The whole setup still doesn't look set in stone over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ohh la la, only thing left off my winter check list 20 inch snowstorm .....check twice Record snow depth.......check Long lasting snow pack......check Tsnow..............................check twice Record cold....................check Severe Tstorm on a two foot snow pack.......check Ice storm........................check Strong Windex squall...........unchecked you forgot: 8" per hour snownado vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 LOL, here comes the battle. Was just gonna say i rally hope we can avoid trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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