Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NCEP Preliminary Discussion: "...WITH REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF EC MEAN AND GEFS FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 AND OPERATIONAL EC AND EC MEAN DAYS 5-7. AFTER INITIALLY WARM OVER WRN CONUS AND COLD EAST THE PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF WET TO VERY WET CONDITIONS TO THE PAC NORTHWEST AND DOWN THE COAST WELL INTO CA LATER THIS PERIOD WITH A CONSIDERABLE WARM OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO THE LONGER TERM AS A MEAN TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG 130W. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A COOLER AND WETTER WRN CONUS AND A WARMER CENTRAL AND ERN HALF OF THE NATION....' This could be it folks past about D7, if we put a lot of stock in the PNA being the primary pattern drive. Frankly, I think that is risky however, as this season's anomaly distribution as a whole (and last season to name another, and there are many more in history) has been heavily drawn up by the polar field indices, with the -AO/-NAO couplet, or propensity in general at more times than fewer demonstratively muting out the otherwise La Nina preferred pattern. The AO is currently falling concertedly falling at CPC. Although there is some dischord among the members as to how far it will ultimately come down, a beginning point near 2SD positive regime collapsing to -.5 by D7 is a significant enough drop to assume imposition upon middle latitude flow orientation. Mop-ended prognostics commence at that time, which is not unusual for extended leads. I still believe the background terran signal (as it balances in solar) is to favor the negative polar field index states, and is on-going; and probably also (would need scientific scrutiny/testing...) is heavily related to why cooler anomalies have verified given relatively limited actual negatively measure values of these indices. That seasonal trend/thus far verification has me a little spooked by the straight up interpretation of the -PNA/+EPO having all that much proxy in means - certainly the dailies could have counter-thetic events translating through; partiuclarly at 40N, where these polar field modalities leading (the NAO is gradually recessing as well, and will be less than 0 per the GEFS mean by D7-10), will load cold into the southern/southeastern tiers of Canada, creating potent ambient gradient and most likely sufficient cold bleeds south post respective fast moving systems. I do agree and suggest heavy conservation of the PNA's ability to exert progressivity to the flow characteristic over N American, below the latitudes of the AO/NAO influence (~40-45N parallel). Above that latittude, slower balanced velocities in the mid-levels and additional blocking may and likely would evolve at just about any time. I see the next 2 weeks as flat wave storm potential and NJ Model lows perhaps favored. Case in point, the D4-6 00z Euro (and previous runs have bene flagging this) we see transient leading PNAP pattern then cycle, to which the 140-150W trough axis in the eastern Pac is bumped down stream; subsequently, a new trough drills in its stead, and this transiently excites renewed PNAP orientation down stream over the CONUS. The previous dislodged trough then gets a feed-back as it passes through 100 W in route to the OV, and we see kick back amplitude passing eventually off the MA as a result of all this synoptic evolution. The model outrightly bombs a surface reflection and probably clips southern and eastern areas of SNE with a snow event. The other deterministic guidance have this wave in the flow, with the GFS quite naturally given to its native bias being the fastest and thus incapable of allowing the meridional component of amplitude to express out in time. This event should be watched as our next player here in SNE. After that, I have no problem with warming coming here, but my conclusion for now is that these warm intervals over the next 2 or perhaps 3 weeks heading into March will be transient in nature, as the discussion tells why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey John, agree with the thoughts of the fast paced pattern. It's possible that we could get into interludes of warm and cold that you alluded too. The Ec ensembles are probably the most aggressive in developing some sort of a -NAO.as Scandinavian ridging retrogrades over to Greenland. However, I use the term "aggressive" in a loose manner because it's not a very strong -nao by any means..but it is there. It's still a little up in the air as to how the pattern will progress from the 11-15 day, but given the time of year and climo, I would think any height rises in the NAO or EPO domain will have the propensity to buckle the flow to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Just to summarize, after the cape scrape, any major storms or prolonged bouts of cold are a long shot, until March...agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Onto the SWF and Miller B threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Onto the SWF and Miller B threats. GFS likes to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS likes to think so. We shall see, Thats all the hope there is right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The clipper is more amped on gfs and is actually a miller b threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Man all out torch on the GFS. 552 thicknesses with sw flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 well, all you guys are still on the snow train...i enjoyed the ride through January...but i think i'm off now, the sun angle is now strong enough to warm the interior of my car...i'm ready for spring...or at least i'm ready to melt off this ridiculous snow pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Tip's warm-cold-warm-cold is evident on the 12z GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like a roller coaster ride on temps heading into the last week of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ensembles are not buying what the GFS op is selling, for Sunday Night..lol. Way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Man all out torch on the GFS. 552 thicknesses with sw flow. That would rock!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ensembles are not buying what the GFS op is selling, for Sunday Night..lol. Way north. Not suprising. I should have taken the bet with Steve, as well...would have been 2\2 this week.....but I was uncomfortable betting within my 1-3" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That would rock!! I'm more and more inclined to agree; we are just going to rot this fossilized pack away for the next 3 weeks and I'd frankly just assume blast it away and start anew next month.....parkling lots are just a mess and it's losing it's appeal with each passing day further rotting it....I think you folks in the densely populated urban corridors would be even further tempted to make the leap into this school of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I enjoy snow on the ground til the bitter end, usually mid-April in my parts. Torches come and go, but I'm confident the snow will remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 well NNE/CNE will be riding the fence, and maybe the I-90 pike crowd too. im not 100% sold on an all out torch, the op runs of various camps have been waffling back and forth with the depth of the polar fields and the extent and placement of the gradient. though there will be no bigstorms should be plenty of opportunities for ongoing on and off snoww wherever that setsup. just looking to keep building up here nickel and dime as we have most of the year, and avoid a strong torch. hopefully the gradient doesnt blast north into james bay which it could on a whim, but im encouraged with the overall feel of the op runs the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not suprising. I should have taken the bet with Steve, as well...would have been 2\2 this week.....but I was uncomfortable betting within my 1-3" range. Shoulda coulda la de da de da. Seeing Ryan wishing for heat is not unusual, maybe just enough so he is driving through puddles everyday skidding on ice in the morning, oh yea that would just rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I enjoy snow on the ground til the bitter end, usually mid-April in my parts. Torches come and go, but I'm confident the snow will remain. Granted you don't live in the rocky mountains, but this occurence isn't as great an anomaly for your region, thus you aren't faced with some of the externailities inflicted upon me over the past week or so; the party is over and all I am left with is a stained roof and pot-hole induced scrapes in the fender of my low-riding car.....this shift focuses to this once the weekly storm bus stops rolling....oh, and by the way.....not only have the various snow piles lost their "epicness", but they now resemble mounds of rea discharge. Your infrastructure is better equipped for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Granted you don't live in the rocky mountains, but this occurence isn't as great an anomaly for you region and thus you aren't afflicted with some of the externailities inflicted upon me over the past week or so; the party is over and I'll I am left with is a stained roof and pot-hole induced scraped in the fender of my low-riding car.....this shift focuses to this once the weekly storm bus stops rolling....oh, and by the way.....not only have the various snow piles lost their "epicness", but they now resemble mounds of rea discharge. nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The snow is only going to look uglier with a torch. I'll try and keep it intact with a refresher every now and then before the pattern flips back to favorable for a larger storm. No thanks on the melt off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I love how when it's fluff, people are complaining that it has no staying power. Then we get some snow grains/ice and people are stoked their glacier is in place. Then once it's in place they're sick of it and want it gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That's why I love March snow. 14" of concrete that plasters everything and then it's gone in 2 days and I'm back to shorts and sitting outside drinking a beer. That's good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 We will survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 nasty Don't get me wrong....I can not describe how thoroughly I enjoyed that month period of time.....but when the pack goes stale and there are no more storms occuring, you are reminded of the implications of that around these parts and they are vastly different than the ones experienced further n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm more and more inclined to agree; we are just going to rot this fossilized pack away for the next 3 weeks and I'd frankly just assume blast it away and start anew next month.....parkling lots are just a mess and it's losing it's appeal with each passing day further rotting it....I think you folks in the densely populated urban corridors would be even further tempted to make the leap into this school of thought. City folks, sucks you have to live with the brown slushy turd looking snow daily. Down here at work the snow cover is about 12-15 . I see some southern hillls with patchy grass showing through, cannot wait to get back home. All this overreaction to a warm period that has been pushed back daily is funny, now Ray has us torching for three weeks. Does suck for those with a city perspective without the benefits of long rolling hills buried in deep snow, having to deal with browned city streets etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm more and more inclined to agree; we are just going to rot this fossilized pack away for the next 3 weeks and I'd frankly just assume blast it away and start anew next month.....parkling lots are just a mess and it's losing it's appeal with each passing day further rotting it....I think you folks in the densely populated urban corridors would be even further tempted to make the leap into this school of thought. i was thinking that on dec 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Don't get me wrong....I can not describe how thoroughly I enjoyed that month period of time.....but when the pack goes stale and there are no more storms occuring, you are reminded of the implications of that around these parts and they are vastly different than the ones experienced further n. We were late getting to the party but we will be one of the last to leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not suprising. I should have taken the bet with Steve, as well...would have been 2\2 this week.....but I was uncomfortable betting within my 1-3" range. Well this may be a case where ensembles might not totally handle the situation all that well. I'm not saying this out of being a weenie, but the op runs show some sort of potential..including the 12z Canadian now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Just to summarize, after the cape scrape, any major storms or prolonged bouts of cold are a long shot, until March...agreed. City folks, sucks you have to live with the brown slushy turd looking snow daily. Down here at work the snow cover is about 12-15 . I see some southern hillls with patchy grass showing through, cannot wait to get back home. All this overreaction to a warm period that has been pushed back daily is funny, now Ray has us torching for three weeks. Does suck for those with a city perspective without the benefits of long rolling hills buried in deep snow, having to deal with browned city streets etc. Really.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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