Reviewing the processes behind this winter's snowstorms

[earthlight]

Here's a link to an article written by myself this evening. In an attempt to wrap a bow around the past three winter storms we've all experienced, check out the blog post which details the processes at work. Comments, criticism, etc are obviously encouraged. Enjoy

http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/2011/02/understanding-processes-behind-this.html

[Chris L]

John, I do have a case study of the Boxing Day Blizzard, here it is.

http://cms.met.psu.e...0/26Dec2010.pdf

Enjoy!

You'll love it.

[earthlight]

John, I do have a case study of the Boxing Day Blizzard, here it is.

http://cms.met.psu.e...0/26Dec2010.pdf

Enjoy!

You'll love it.

Awesome link. Snow totals seem a bit low across the board, not sure if others can support that..but it seems that way to me just glancing over it.

[earthlight]

Here's the coolest image from that link...00z model verification two nights before the storm system. Light blue is the observed track. You don't see this too often in todays day of modeling.

[Chris L]

Yeah, that is why that storm was so special for us, IMO.

[simpsonsbuff]

Come on John, we know the moon was too warm to support that sort of a track.

[earthlight]

Come on John, we know the moon was too warm to support that sort of a track.

The sad truth is that I will always remember it as the "initialization errors" storm. By the way, here's one of the images from the blog post. Pretty incredible 30 days of winter we had between Dec 25-Jan 26.

[Chris L]

They all have a strong H500 closed low; with an intense vortmax(es) right in the ideal spot. Now, one might argue that if the January 12th storm underwent bombing a bit earlier, we would have gotten another 20-30 inch snowfall rather easily. Oh, what could have been with that one..

[Kaner587]

They all have a strong H500 closed low; with an intense vortmax(es) right in the ideal spot. Now, one might argue that if the January 12th storm underwent bombing a bit earlier, we would have gotten another 20-30 inch snowfall rather easily. Oh, what could have been with that one..

but we benefitted from a perfect vortmax with Jan 26th and 27th while areas north and east that got slammed with the 11th and 12th got more pedestrian amounts. It was like a switcharoo

[earthlight]

Here's a text message from simpsonsbuff during the 3"/hr rates on December 26th.

"personally I think this is all fake. initialization errors created alternate universe."

[Chris L]

but we benefitted from a perfect vortmax with Jan 26th and 27th while areas north and east that got slammed with the 11th and 12th got more pedestrian amounts. It was like a switcharoo

Yeah, the 26-27th has a weak +NAO, yet timing prevailed.

Jan 11th-12th could have easily been as big Dec 26th, (The totals in New Haven-North Haven, CT show that)... I think John would have gotten another 30 inches of snow from that one IF it had just been a bit faster with the bomb, because Union County is truly the jackpot this winter.

[jm1220]

I won't soon forget the incredible snow rates I had on the morning of 1/27... 13 inches in just a few hours. Visibility was pretty much zero during those few hours, and the dynamics under that upper low were incredible. I can't remember the last time I had a sleet thunderstorm, but that was it. The impact was severe as well, with tree damage and scattered power outages. The heaviness of the snow made it difficult to move and added a lot of weight to the trees. It also made it stick around longer and not melt as fast as a dry snow would.

In terms of the overall effect, 12/26 was probably the worst, but the intensity of that storm's snowfall was slightly less here than 1/27. The wind however was absolutely ferocious. It was almost impossible to stand up against it at the height.

[bmc10]

Here's the coolest image from that link...00z model verification two nights before the storm system. Light blue is the observed track. You don't see this too often in todays day of modeling.

Could be my favorite image! Models really played catch up with that storm! Awesome, writeup bro! I read the whole thing...

[Chris L]

I won't soon forget the incredible snow rates I had on the morning of 1/27... 13 inches in just a few hours. Visibility was pretty much zero during those few hours, and the dynamics under that upper low were incredible. I can't remember the last time I had a sleet thunderstorm, but that was it. The impact was severe as well, with tree damage and scattered power outages. The heaviness of the snow made it difficult to move and added a lot of weight to the trees. It also made it stick around longer and not melt as fast as a dry snow would.

In terms of the overall effect, 12/26 was probably the worst, but the intensity of that storm's snowfall was slightly less here than 1/27. The wind however was absolutely ferocious. It was almost impossible to stand up against it at the height.

January 26th was like December 2000... Just a WALL of white, will never forget both.... Although, Dec 2000 had a higher total by an inch or so.

But I have said this before: December 2010 Blizzard was the worst since January 1996 blizzard, or even exceeded it. You know me as the biggest '96 fan there is, it takes a lot for me to say that, but DEC 2010 had done it for me, IMO in every aspect but duration... I mean, it fell in 18 hours! If Dec 26 was 24 hours, John would have gotten 36 inches plus.

Duration, though, '96 is unmatched... 36 hours of snow, total in my neck of the woods, according to my dad, was 28.5" (24 with Dec 2010).

[jm1220]

Could be my favorite image! Models really played catch up with that storm! Awesome, writeup bro! I read the whole thing...

Me and just about everyone else had long given up on it by X-mas Eve. The system looked sheared out and the models kept looking worse and worse. Then came the infamous "initialization error" GFS run and the rest was history.

I did think that very high totals could occur if the storm bombed out nearby and briefly stalled because of the blocking, and they sure did. I don't think many predicted much more than 12" for the area.

[jm1220]

January 26th was like December 2000... Just a WALL of white, will never forget both.... Although, Dec 2000 had a higher total by an inch or so.

But I have said this before: December 2010 Blizzard was the worst since January 1996 blizzard, or even exceeded it. You know me as the biggest '96 fan there is, it takes a lot for me to say that, but DEC 2010 had done it for me, IMO in every aspect but duration... I mean, it fell in 18 hours! If Dec 26 was 24 hours, John would have gotten 36 inches plus.

Duration, though, '96 is unmatched... 36 hours of snow, total in my neck of the woods, according to my dad, was 28.5" (24 with Dec 2010).

In terms of the snow, you guys got it worse on 12/26 in NJ than I did here, due to the fact that the snow became patchy later that night and we had to catch up at the very end. I was stuck at 14-15" for a while until the last couple of hours brought the heavy snow back in and I ended up with my ~20" total (though it was very hard to measure). The drifts were incredible, and something you would expect from a Dakotas blizzard. There were people in my town who had to climb out of windows to get out of their homes. The front of my house was snowed in pretty good as well. Took FOREVER to shovel because the wind just kept re-drifting the snow the next day. Even after the snow long stopped we still had gusts well over 40 mph. It was the first verified blizzard I think I've seen since 1996 (and there was no question it was a true blizzard here as well unlike other major storms we've had).

[bmc10]

Me and just about everyone else had long given up on it by X-mas Eve. The system looked sheared out and the models kept looking worse and worse. Then came the infamous "initialization error" GFS run and the rest was history.

I did think that very high totals could occur if the storm bombed out nearby and briefly stalled because of the blocking, and they sure did. I don't think many predicted much more than 12" for the area.

I made a bet on christmas eve with a family friend who is a doctor that our area in NNJ would see 12+ inches of snow. Sure enough he took it, because the media was saying OTS with a dusting at most. That worked out well for me

[bmc10]

In terms of the snow, you guys got it worse on 12/26 in NJ than I did here, due to the fact that the snow became patchy later that night and we had to catch up at the very end. I was stuck at 14-15" for a while until the last couple of hours brought the heavy snow back in and I ended up with my ~20" total (though it was very hard to measure). The drifts were incredible, and something you would expect from a Dakotas blizzard. There were people in my town who had to climb out of windows to get out of their homes. The front of my house was snowed in pretty good as well. Took FOREVER to shovel because the wind just kept re-drifting the snow the next day. Even after the snow long stopped we still had gusts well over 40 mph. It was the first verified blizzard I think I've seen since 1996 (and there was no question it was a true blizzard here as well unlike other major storms we've had).

Yea man, where I live (Franklin Lakes extreme NW Bergen County) it is unusual for a storm to meet blizzard conditions for our area because of our interior location away from the coast. This storm was an exception! We easily had 6-8 hours of true whiteout conditions under the mega band with strong gusty winds. I have never seen a more intense storm in my area.

[earthlight]

Amazing to think 12/26 was only a month and a half (or so) ago. Since we're reminiscing...I still have a bunch of texts on my phone. These are keepers... occasionally I go to delete old ones but can't delete these because I start laughing.

12/23/10 5:23pm

gkrangers: new rule. dont follow modeling till the players are onshore and sampled. this all went to sh** when the shortwave made landfall

gkrangers: the gfs is doing what a girl did to me the last few months. let me tell you, it does not end with an accumulating snowfall

me: bermuda snow ftw

12/25/10 5:00pm

gkrangers: gfs is mind blowing.

gkrangers: im glad to hear you say the phase happened. should just be sit and wait now.

me: yup, and enjoy.

gkrangers: you too. WE DID IT.

me: YES. can you believe it?

gkrangers: watching the northern stream dig into the gom is pretty nice

me: its incredible

12/25/10 4:25am

me: text me 06z gfs?

simpsonsbuff: sure

simpsonsbuff: through hour 24 it's 25-50miles west of 00z.

me: oh sweet baby jesus

simpsonsbuff: huge huge huge hit from phl to nyc

me: goodnight. get some sleep. blizzard coming.

simpsonsbuff: winterwarlock is devestated, are u sure the satellite doesnt have initialization errors?

12/25/10 11:20pm

simpsonsbuff: worried about sun angle keeping down accumulations

me: storm cancel. moon is too warm.

12/25/10 3:11am

me: so stoked

me: cant sleep because of stokedness

simpsonsbuff: i think the srefs are wetter again. if thats possible. lol.

12/27/10 4:57am

simpsonsbuff: personally i think this is all fake, initialization errors created alternate universe.

me: should have listened to hpc. la nina progressive pattern doesnt support a phase. we should have known better.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah, that is why that storm was so special for us, IMO.

We'll remember that one forever.

John, you have some great writing abilities. You should include more pics of the storm-- that was one for the ages.

[CooL]

Here's the coolest image from that link...00z model verification two nights before the storm system. Light blue is the observed track. You don't see this too often in todays day of modeling.

This had to be a bad data ingest issue as all the models were picking up on something east of the benchmark, pretty tightly clustered too. Cant blame the models themselves, they just use the data they are given.

[nzucker]

John, awesome write-up and visuals! I worked as a sports journalist at a newspaper for years, and I've got to say your writing talents are second to none, really impressive. Maybe a second career in the making if you don't become the next Cantore or Kocin. You need to stop writing "it's" when you mean "its", though, bugs me to no end.

In all seriousness, what we experienced from 12/26 to 2/2 was unparalleled...three huge snowstorms, arctic outbreak, a major icing event, and lots of smaller snows to keep the pack fresh. These were good times indeed, some of the best I've enjoyed in three years of tracking. I honestly can't remember a stretch of wintry weather like this in all my years of living near NYC, maybe the second best was Jan/Feb 2003 or the February 10-26 period last year. I think with the -NAO decadal cycle and solar minimum, we will enjoy much more frequent occurrences of these conditions, although Winter 10-11 will still stand in its own category. Of course, I said that last year, thinking 09-10 was about the best we could do.

[Manny]

Man, awesome write-up. I truly love this winter.

[baroclinic_instability]

Great writeup! Weather at its finest--and chaotic feedbacks at their finest. As you mentioned--we can have all the teleconnectors in the world--but the small details eventually are what count. Hence why analogs to past season can eventually mean nothing in the big scheme of things. This is why I love weather so much--we never fully know how it will all play out. Just think if that plains S/W for the Christmas Blizzard was a hundred miles W or E--out to sea and it would have been forgotten. Instead--it was a historic event for many reasons--and many will remember it for quite a long time to come. "Weather is cool" my favorite professor always said--well said. My favorite quote in your writeup--shows how delicate and "chaotic" the atmosphere can be at times--and there is a high likelihood that even tiny changes in the overall flow would have meant none of these storms verified. Truly a historic winter for many.

"There were other contributors at play, including jet stream phases, positive convective feedback, low level jet and subtropical jet moisture, high pressure gradients, barocolinic zones (see the sea surface temperatures), latent heat release. You name it, we've seen it."

[NJwinter23]

Me and just about everyone else had long given up on it by X-mas Eve. The system looked sheared out and the models kept looking worse and worse. Then came the infamous "initialization error" GFS run and the rest was history.

I did think that very high totals could occur if the storm bombed out nearby and briefly stalled because of the blocking, and they sure did. I don't think many predicted much more than 12" for the area.

Not true, I think several people noted the dynamics and banding potential once everything shifted towards reality Xmas Eve night/xmas. On Christmas morning I made a map predicting widespread 10-18" with over 20" amounts possible in banding. Of course I also had accumulationg snow too far west especially down in the DC/Bmore area as well so that forecast did have it's flaws (as they usually do)..here's the article from Xmas morning:

By the way, GREAT write-up John

http://www.examiner....nditions-likely

[earthlight]

Great writeup! Weather at its finest--and chaotic feedbacks at their finest. As you mentioned--we can have all the teleconnectors in the world--but the small details eventually are what count. Hence why analogs to past season can eventually mean nothing in the big scheme of things. This is why I love weather so much--we never fully know how it will all play out. Just think if that plains S/W for the Christmas Blizzard was a hundred miles W or E--out to sea and it would have been forgotten. Instead--it was a historic event for many reasons--and many will remember it for quite a long time to come. "Weather is cool" my favorite professor always said--well said. My favorite quote in your writeup--shows how delicate and "chaotic" the atmosphere can be at times--and there is a high likelihood that even tiny changes in the overall flow would have meant none of these storms verified. Truly a historic winter for many.

"There were other contributors at play, including jet stream phases, positive convective feedback, low level jet and subtropical jet moisture, high pressure gradients, barocolinic zones (see the sea surface temperatures), latent heat release. You name it, we've seen it."

Thanks for the response and all of the kind words, bud. I couldn't agree more with your professor that you quoted. I joked a day or so before the event that somebody sneezing in Mississippi could completely wreck the event. To say that meteorology is a delicate process would be an understatement. When everything works out, down to the intricate details, those are the events and occasions that we remember forever.

[earthlight]

Not true, I think several people noted the dynamics and banding potential once everything shifted towards reality Xmas Eve night/xmas. On Christmas morning I made a map predicting widespread 10-18" with over 20" amounts possible in banding. Of course I also had accumulationg snow too far west especially down in the DC/Bmore area as well so that forecast did have it's flaws (as they usually do)..here's the article from Xmas morning:

By the way, GREAT write-up John

http://www.examiner....nditions-likely

Good stuff, I do remember you were all over that event. I believe that with the afternoon package on 12/24 we forecasted something very similar...10-18 with higher amounts in banding. I distinctly remember with all of the drama ongoing with HPC I took it upon to myself to analyze the entire situation from the floor up. Once I got to the plains, saw the past 6 GFS runs trending stronger with that shortwave each time, and got a look at the water vapor/shortwave sampling on simuawips...I didn't need to see much more. The rest was mesoscale stuff. I was pretty much sure this thing was going to tuck in near the coast.

Regarding HPC...I do believe that there in fact were initialization errors. If you ask me, though, they were blown out of proportion, and to completely ignore it and advise NWS offices to toss their own GFS and NAM models, when it was clear even globals had caught on to the same thing, could have been an absolutely epic disaster. Some may say it was. I know by the evening package on the 24th OKX basically said "f this" and ignored HPC guidance. So I guess we will never really know what went on there.

[Edge Weather]

John,

As a teacher myself, I used the HPC disaster as a teachable moment. I think my students learned more from this episode and severe mistake than from anything else I taught that day. It is a perfect example of how large organizations can really mess things up. It reminds me of the NASA disasters with the space shuttles. Kind of the same thing.

Good stuff, I do remember you were all over that event. I believe that with the afternoon package on 12/24 we forecasted something very similar...10-18 with higher amounts in banding. I distinctly remember with all of the drama ongoing with HPC I took it upon to myself to analyze the entire situation from the floor up. Once I got to the plains, saw the past 6 GFS runs trending stronger with that shortwave each time, and got a look at the water vapor/shortwave sampling on simuawips...I didn't need to see much more. The rest was mesoscale stuff. I was pretty much sure this thing was going to tuck in near the coast.

Regarding HPC...I do believe that there in fact were initialization errors. If you ask me, though, they were blown out of proportion, and to completely ignore it and advise NWS offices to toss their own GFS and NAM models, when it was clear even globals had caught on to the same thing, could have been an absolutely epic disaster. Some may say it was. I know by the evening package on the 24th OKX basically said "f this" and ignored HPC guidance. So I guess we will never really know what went on there.

[EasternLI]

Excellent write up man, great analysis of the whole unbelievable winter (so far).

[NJwinter23]

Good stuff, I do remember you were all over that event. I believe that with the afternoon package on 12/24 we forecasted something very similar...10-18 with higher amounts in banding. I distinctly remember with all of the drama ongoing with HPC I took it upon to myself to analyze the entire situation from the floor up. Once I got to the plains, saw the past 6 GFS runs trending stronger with that shortwave each time, and got a look at the water vapor/shortwave sampling on simuawips...I didn't need to see much more. The rest was mesoscale stuff. I was pretty much sure this thing was going to tuck in near the coast.

Regarding HPC...I do believe that there in fact were initialization errors. If you ask me, though, they were blown out of proportion, and to completely ignore it and advise NWS offices to toss their own GFS and NAM models, when it was clear even globals had caught on to the same thing, could have been an absolutely epic disaster. Some may say it was. I know by the evening package on the 24th OKX basically said "f this" and ignored HPC guidance. So I guess we will never really know what went on there.

That was a truly memorable stretch of incredible short term developments with that storm, arguably as memorable/exciting as the storm itself for me. I recall Christmas Eve morning the dissapointment had fully settled in on a failed event. After all we were 48 hrs away and everything, including the euro which had so persistently suggested the big dog 4-7 days out, had fully gone to crap. Uneasiness was abound as this would be failed attempt number 2 in a week's time, and what looked like a wasted December pattern and wasted retrograding Greenland Block, which was forecasted to dissipate after Christmas. Not to mention, the La Nina had everyone up in a frenzy that this would be our only opportunity. Come January we would be torched ... Anyhow, Xmas eve morning I was writing this article saying how the storm would be a miss with maybe some light snow if westward trends occurred, just as I glanced at the 12z gfs..Hmm, WTF is the gfs trying to do here?! Every other model in that suite held steady to out to sea, so i was perplexed as all hell, not believeing it but looking for an explanation. When HPC came out with the "bad initialization" and the euro remained east, that was enough for me to disregard the 12z gfs. Being the "prepare for the worst" type when it comes to forecasting, I was smart enough to at least add some more open-ended wording in that article before posting, despite not truly believeing the 12z 12/24 gfs. By the time 18z runs came in, and other things such as the water vapor loop came to my attention (baroclinic_instability I recall also wrote up a great post on the convection/dynamics in the gulf of mexico and how the models may be mishandling..something along those lines), it began to hit me that a "miracle" could be in the works.. The balance between spending time with the family and following the unfolding situation was, well lopsided towards the weather by then lol. It was astonishing to say the least.

Here is the Boxing Day blizzard summary I wrote up after the storm was over:

http://www.examiner....jersey-pictures