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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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Does it look like Pittsburgh could get snow from this? It seems to me that we always tend to switch over to rain when storms move that close to us.

The potential is there for a wintry mix in sw pa, but even there it looks rather cold on the Euro, JMA and CMC.

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I was thinking the same thing... but it feels really good to hear it from a met. :) Looks like definitely something to track.

Certainly. And the GFS is trending that direction as well. The only thing that bothers me now is how far south/dry the euro was at 12z. Most other modeling has qpf's on the order of .3-.6 for the event, with the JMA at almost 1" (likely overdone)

The 18z MREFs have a wide spread as well... some juicy and some rather dry.

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I sense an overwhelming desire for springtime and warmer temperatures by the lack of discussion on our event for next week!!

I'll probably start caring this weekend, after I've enjoyed my 55° and sun tomorrow and a brush with 60° on Friday. :sun:

Still 45° here at the moment. Snowpack holding strong in the woods and neighborhood north of PSU's campus...on campus it's fading fast.

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I'll probably start caring this weekend, after I've enjoyed my 55° and sun tomorrow and a brush with 60° on Friday. :sun:

Still 45° here at the moment. Snowpack holding strong in the woods and neighborhood north of PSU's campus...on campus it's fading fast.

We lost a good bit of snow yesterday and today in the wide-open areas. My yard, which receives very little afternoon sun, still has about 8"

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We lost a good bit of snow yesterday and today in the wide-open areas. My yard, which receives very little afternoon sun, still has about 8"

We are re-freezing. Right now it's 28.8 here, and when I was walking the dog I saw a guy turn onto a side street here in town and hit an ice patch and skid.

And lol, 42 at UNV. My next door neighbor and I were talking about gardening tonight, and he said we are definitely in a different USDA zone (5) than State College (6). Some wild radiational cooling.

As I was typing this, a PennDOT truck went past. Probably hitting a few icy patches.

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I sense an overwhelming desire for springtime and warmer temperatures by the lack of discussion on our event for next week!!

Haha i'm not gonna lie.. i enjoyed the warm day today and will thoroughly enjoy the next two warmer days, then i'll be ready to see the last few weeks of winter. Plus I was in a bit of a wait and see how the models evolve with this event. Since things have come around a good bit today to what the euro has been advertising the chances appear to be increasing that we could be back to business at the beginning of the week. The key is going to be that cold air press.

We lost a good bit of snow yesterday and today in the wide-open areas. My yard, which receives very little afternoon sun, still has about 8"

Altoona pretty much has no snow left, you get up around here and its patchy in the fields and such. Our house is situated on a north facing hill, so the woods behind still has several inches of snow and the yard itself is still about 75% covered i'd say. At least the driveways thawed out.

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We are re-freezing. Right now it's 28.8 here, and when I was walking the dog I saw a guy turn onto a side street here in town and hit an ice patch and skid.

And lol, 42 at UNV. My next door neighbor and I were talking about gardening tonight, and he said we are definitely in a different USDA zone (5) than State College (6). Some wild radiational cooling.

As I was typing this, a PennDOT truck went past. Probably hitting a few icy patches.

Wow... talk about a meso-climate. Interesting!

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Haha i'm not gonna lie.. i enjoyed the warm day today and will thoroughly enjoy the next two warmer days, then i'll be ready to see the last few weeks of winter. Plus I was in a bit of a wait and see how the models evolve with this event. Since things have come around a good bit today to what the euro has been advertising the chances appear to be increasing that we could be back to business at the beginning of the week. The key is going to be that cold air press.

I hope the 0z euro juices back up again. The 12z was strangely dry, while the CMC and JMA have almost 1" of qpf with subfreezing 850s. I suppose it depends on how strong that high gets.

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I hope the 0z euro juices back up again. The 12z was strangely dry, while the CMC and JMA have almost 1" of qpf with subfreezing 850s. I suppose it depends on how strong that high gets.

I think at this point of the game I don't mind the euro setting the southern boundary with a solution that's so cold and supressed that it doesn't even give us precip. Since models have been trending toward the Euro the reality will likely end up being between the 12z GFS lakes cutter and 12z Euro and the issue will be what part's of the region (if any) end up under the gun for a possible mix or rain. I'd still be more worried about something that ultimately gets modeled back up into the lower lakes than getting squashed south.

Although, that would be some brutal irony if we come out of a few days of 60 degree weather and have a storm get stomped all the way to the south of us.

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I think at this point of the game I don't mind the euro setting the southern boundary with a solution that's so cold and supressed that it doesn't even give us precip. Since models have been trending toward the Euro the reality will likely end up being between the 12z GFS lakes cutter and 12z Euro and the issue will be what part's of the region (if any) end up under the gun for a possible mix or rain. I'd still be more worried about something that ultimately gets modeled back up into the lower lakes than getting squashed south.

Although, that would be some brutal irony if we come out of a few days of 60 degree weather and have a storm get stomped all the way to the south of us.

You're right. It's not good to be in the bullseye 5 days out! Let's wait until Friday evening or Saturday morning.

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Wow... talk about a meso-climate. Interesting!

Neighbor said to me last night without looking that State College was at least 40. We have more snowcover, valley etc. He also noted that as a vfd, he has seen a fair amount of wrecks due to surprise black ice. Also last night there was a strong smell of rain.

We were 28.8 when we left so not much additional drop.

How about that wacky euro?

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Neighbor said to me last night without looking that State College was at least 40. We have more snowcover, valley etc. He also noted that as a vfd, he has seen a fair amount of wrecks due to surprise black ice. Also last night there was a strong smell of rain.

We were 28.8 when we left so not much additional drop.

How about that wacky euro?

Bizarre. Looks like some of the ensembles are further south. Perhaps this was a hiccup run, because there seems to be growing support amongst all ensembles for a southward track. The majority of the 6z MREF members show a decent event for almost the entire state.

Steady as she goes at this point. The pattern seems to favor a storm track to our south.

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