sauss06 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 What a windy pattern coming up. I don't know if the wind at HR 120-126 will hold but that is one dang windy day. Would be Sustained 30-35 gusting to 55-65 if that held. Something to watch. this isn't Kansas Dorothy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Wind really whipping around out now, temp dropping fast it feels like as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Lots of black ice issues on some of the back roads this eve as the meltdown got stopped by the fresh shot of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Lots of black ice issues on some of the back roads this eve as the meltdown got stopped by the fresh shot of cold. my road (dirt road) has been a sheet of ice since the ice storm. one spot had close to 4 inches of ice on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Lots of black ice issues on some of the back roads this eve as the meltdown got stopped by the fresh shot of cold. my road (dirt road) has been a sheet of ice since the ice storm. one spot had close to 4 inches of ice on it. Our backyard has a path where we walk the greyhound for her to do her biz. The melt then refreeze made it into an ice path. That all is a memory after Friday. MAG, what's your take on the Euro ensembles for the early next week storm? Heard it's colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hmmm 12z Euro holds serve from last night...actually looks better imo...a decent snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 hmmm 12z Euro holds serve from last night...actually looks better imo...a decent snowstorm for us. wow. That's pretty interesting. PS anyone who tries to claim that it won't accumulate due to warm ground from our warm spell will get bopped in the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Our backyard has a path where we walk the greyhound for her to do her biz. The melt then refreeze made it into an ice path. That all is a memory after Friday. MAG, what's your take on the Euro ensembles for the early next week storm? Heard it's colder? Yea that's how they've generally been i suppose. They had been southeast of the op up through a couple runs ago. Last night's and now today's operational runs looked to have come around to that further southeast suggestion. Last nights 0z Euro was probably an all snow event north of I-80 with i'd say the central counties seeing snow to mix. Today's 12z goes even further and keeps most everyone (even harrisburg and philly) all snow basically with a fading ohio valley low going to a secondary off the VA coast. This whole setup reminds me alot of the groundhog day ice storm. The euro squashes what would otherwise be an easy eastern lakes or even central lakes cutter to an ohio valley miller b because it has a sprawling high pressure due north up in Canada effectively throwing the block. The other models don't seem to do that and it has various versions of a GLC, though i need to have a look at the 12z GGEM. Otherwise the GFS has this way up in the lakes and even the infamous NOGAPS runs a low through the lower lakes and into NY making a rain event. As alluded to the other day, this storm is probably going to come down to how well the cold air presses after things cool off after the late week heat wave. And of course, that is something that reared its ugly head with the Feb 1-2 ice storm/rainstorm. The storm ended up a bit further nw at the end, and the snow boundary set up much further north. I'm keeping my expectations low for now, i still think this has a better chance of being a mix to rain or mostly rain than anything with alot of snow or snow to mix. Still something that will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yea that's how they've generally been i suppose. They had been southeast of the op up through a couple runs ago. Last night's and now today's operational runs looked to have come around to that further southeast suggestion. Last nights 0z Euro was probably an all snow event north of I-80 with i'd say the central counties seeing snow to mix. Today's 12z goes even further and keeps most everyone (even harrisburg and philly) all snow basically with a fading ohio valley low going to a secondary off the VA coast. This whole setup reminds me alot of the groundhog day ice storm. The euro squashes what would otherwise be an easy eastern lakes or even central lakes cutter to an ohio valley miller b because it has a sprawling high pressure due north up in Canada effectively throwing the block. The other models don't seem to do that and it has various versions of a GLC, though i need to have a look at the 12z GGEM. Otherwise the GFS has this way up in the lakes and even the infamous NOGAPS runs a low through the lower lakes and into NY making a rain event. As alluded to the other day, this storm is probably going to come down to how well the cold air presses after things cool off after the late week heat wave. And of course, that is something that reared its ugly head with the Feb 1-2 ice storm/rainstorm. The storm ended up a bit further nw at the end, and the snow boundary set up much further north. I'm keeping my expectations low for now, i still think this has a better chance of being a mix to rain or mostly rain than anything with alot of snow or snow to mix. Still something that will be interesting to watch. Either this model is waaaaaayyy off, or it's going to score a major coup. It's thicknesses and 850 temps are a little suspect with the 850 low running up to Lake Erie @ 162, but then again it does portray a 1028 high just north of the lakes. Like you, I have a hard time seeing much snow with this, except perhaps far northern and northeastern PA, with an icy/rainy mix elsewhere. Plenty of time to watch, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Oh.... and if it does snow it won't stick much since it's gonna get so warm over the next few days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I have a random question for our meteorologists. What do you guys do in the summer? I mean, during periods of the summer where everyday is around low of 65 and high of 88 with partly cloudy and a chance of afternoon t-storms. What do you do to fill the day since there really aren't any weather patterns that need hours upon hours of research like in the winter / early spring / late fall? (I'm not saying you guys aren't working hard, just like to have as much knowledge of the career as possible because it's probably the most publicly impossible jobs to please people for!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I have a random question for our meteorologists. What do you guys do in the summer? I mean, during periods of the summer where everyday is around low of 65 and high of 88 with partly cloudy and a chance of afternoon t-storms. What do you do to fill the day since there really aren't any weather patterns that need hours upon hours of research like in the winter / early spring / late fall? (I'm not saying you guys aren't working hard, just like to have as much knowledge of the career as possible because it's probably the most publicly impossible jobs to please people for!) Well.... when we get into the pattern of afternoon/evening storms.... I'm on the air if they pop warnings. I also like to start working on our wintercast in July and August, so that takes up some time. Otherwise if there's no warnings and it's beautiful outside, I take vacation time!!!!!!!!! October to April is the best time of year for this job. At least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Oh.... and if it does snow it won't stick much since it's gonna get so warm over the next few days.... fight - fight -fight -lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I have a random question for our meteorologists. What do you guys do in the summer? I mean, during periods of the summer where everyday is around low of 65 and high of 88 with partly cloudy and a chance of afternoon t-storms. What do you do to fill the day since there really aren't any weather patterns that need hours upon hours of research like in the winter / early spring / late fall? (I'm not saying you guys aren't working hard, just like to have as much knowledge of the career as possible because it's probably the most publicly impossible jobs to please people for!) I'll get back to you if I manage to land a full time job in the field somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 here are some pics of the ice from today at my place. my driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 here are pics of the road i live on. the bus coundnt make it back out our road today at 3:00pm. after dropping my son off. almost slid over the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 here are pics of the road i live on. the bus coundnt make it back out our road today at 3:00pm. after dropping my son off. almost slid over the bank. Wow. That's awful. Tell your local plow guys that CaCl2 does wonders for icy roads.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 here are some pics of the ice from today at my place. my driveway man that's one icy driveway. Thats been what ours had looked like until that surge of warmth yesterday with the high winds finally got most of the shale exposed. I'm sure the thaw at the end of the week will transform that into lots of mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Wow. That's awful. Tell your local plow guys that CaCl2 does wonders for icy roads.... they dont even like to put anti-skid down out here. the bus company called them today when the bus was stuck and gave them hell. this is the 2nd day in a row for that. the bus would'nt even come out our road yesterday. i had to drive to the end of the dirt road to have my son catch the bus on the paved road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 man that's one icy driveway. Thats been what ours had looked like until that surge of warmth yesterday with the high winds finally got most of the shale exposed. I'm sure the thaw at the end of the week will transform that into lots of mud. yeah i will take mud at this point. with all the tree's around most of the area is shaded and really keeps the ice locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Yea that's how they've generally been i suppose. They had been southeast of the op up through a couple runs ago. Last night's and now today's operational runs looked to have come around to that further southeast suggestion. Last nights 0z Euro was probably an all snow event north of I-80 with i'd say the central counties seeing snow to mix. Today's 12z goes even further and keeps most everyone (even harrisburg and philly) all snow basically with a fading ohio valley low going to a secondary off the VA coast. This whole setup reminds me alot of the groundhog day ice storm. The euro squashes what would otherwise be an easy eastern lakes or even central lakes cutter to an ohio valley miller b because it has a sprawling high pressure due north up in Canada effectively throwing the block. The other models don't seem to do that and it has various versions of a GLC, though i need to have a look at the 12z GGEM. Otherwise the GFS has this way up in the lakes and even the infamous NOGAPS runs a low through the lower lakes and into NY making a rain event. As alluded to the other day, this storm is probably going to come down to how well the cold air presses after things cool off after the late week heat wave. And of course, that is something that reared its ugly head with the Feb 1-2 ice storm/rainstorm. The storm ended up a bit further nw at the end, and the snow boundary set up much further north. I'm keeping my expectations low for now, i still think this has a better chance of being a mix to rain or mostly rain than anything with alot of snow or snow to mix. Still something that will be interesting to watch. 12z run looks like another anomalous run -- it had one over the weekend with a storm of a similar track moving through on Sunday. The trough is already tilting negative when the storm is in the Plains states, so how this manages to track south of us is a mystery to me. The evolution of the high looks wacky with the single high over eastern Canada morphing into a banana high. Put me in the brief mix to rain camp... I expect the 00z to look much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I have a random question for our meteorologists. What do you guys do in the summer? I mean, during periods of the summer where everyday is around low of 65 and high of 88 with partly cloudy and a chance of afternoon t-storms. What do you do to fill the day since there really aren't any weather patterns that need hours upon hours of research like in the winter / early spring / late fall? (I'm not saying you guys aren't working hard, just like to have as much knowledge of the career as possible because it's probably the most publicly impossible jobs to please people for!) Nothing really changes for me during the summer. Just like the winter, there are days the forecast takes much more effort, like when severe weather is possible or remnants of a tropical storm come up. Thunderstorms can be very unpredictable, so to me they can be just as interesting if not a little moreso than winter storms. Why? Because there are no computer models, just nowcasting. You're judging the stability of the atmosphere and the evolution of thunderstorms -- can be a lot of fun. And around our area, terrain can add an extra wildcard to the equation. And while we don't get many tornado warnings around here, when tornado warnings are issued -- people's lives are in danger. Winter storms generally just annoy people. I'm really looking forward to forecasting thunderstorms again. That's what makes forecasting in this area nice -- we have true seasons, so you get to forecast a little bit of everything, from snow to flooding to severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 12z run looks like another anomalous run -- it had one over the weekend with a storm of a similar track moving through on Sunday. The trough is already tilting negative when the storm is in the Plains states, so how this manages to track south of us is a mystery to me. The evolution of the high looks wacky with the single high over eastern Canada morphing into a banana high. Put me in the brief mix to rain camp... I expect the 00z to look much different. 0Z is still a cold storm. It's insistent. Nothing really changes for me during the summer. Just like the winter, there are days the forecast takes much more effort, like when severe weather is possible or remnants of a tropical storm come up. Thunderstorms can be very unpredictable, so to me they can be just as interesting if not a little moreso than winter storms. Why? Because there are no computer models, just nowcasting. You're judging the stability of the atmosphere and the evolution of thunderstorms -- can be a lot of fun. And around our area, terrain can add an extra wildcard to the equation. And while we don't get many tornado warnings around here, when tornado warnings are issued -- people's lives are in danger. Winter storms generally just annoy people. I'm really looking forward to forecasting thunderstorms again. That's what makes forecasting in this area nice -- we have true seasons, so you get to forecast a little bit of everything, from snow to flooding to severe weather. That's very true. It's never boring as a forecaster. BTW, on that bolded part - I had to chuckle a bit because at some point on American you get this huge debate with severe weather/hurricane enthusiasts about whether it is moral to wish a hurricane hits. Part of the debate includes the hurricane enthusiasts attempting to argue that snowstorms are every bit as dangerous and destructive as hurricanes, which is kind of silly. I mean, DC didn't end up like New Orleans or Homestead FL after their blizzards last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Oh.... and if it does snow it won't stick much since it's gonna get so warm over the next few days.... lolz.......I had people freak out on me when we got snow two Octobers ago that accumulated after being fairly warm after I posted a few photos in reply to "it's not going to accumulate." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Nothing really changes for me during the summer. Just like the winter, there are days the forecast takes much more effort, like when severe weather is possible or remnants of a tropical storm come up. Thunderstorms can be very unpredictable, so to me they can be just as interesting if not a little moreso than winter storms. Why? Because there are no computer models, just nowcasting. You're judging the stability of the atmosphere and the evolution of thunderstorms -- can be a lot of fun. And around our area, terrain can add an extra wildcard to the equation. And while we don't get many tornado warnings around here, when tornado warnings are issued -- people's lives are in danger. Winter storms generally just annoy people. I'm really looking forward to forecasting thunderstorms again. That's what makes forecasting in this area nice -- we have true seasons, so you get to forecast a little bit of everything, from snow to flooding to severe weather. Wait, you try to forecast storms? You mean the obligatory "30 percent chance of afternoon t-storms" isn't scripted into the computer database from June 1-Sept. 15? I kid, I kid! Thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 0Z is still a cold storm. It's insistent. Yes, it is. It's ensembles are along the same line as well. And the GFS is trending southward over the last two days. Looks like some advisory snows on the way Mon-Tue. Lots of back and forth on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I'm ready for some wind. NAM is cranking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 What's the deal on the GFS today? It's 12 PM and it's out to hr 30.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 CMC says hold the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 here is a cool pic that was in our local paper today http://theprogressnews.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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