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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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Still have solid snow cover here in the south east part of York County. This snow is dense. Wouldn't mind a thaw so I can get to my buried firewood! Down here we have had solid snow cover for over a month.

The vast majority of my snowcover is gone here on Long Island (we had some wicked coastal front 45F torches 1-2 weeks ago), and what's left in my town will almost definitely be gone by the end of this week considering most of us should get above 50 multiple times by then. We're mostly reduced to the ugly black side of the road piles that are better taken out of their misery. Areas that are shaded most of the time still do have some good snowpack though.

You guys are at least lucky you're not vulnerable to massive few hour or so long torches when southerly winds off the ocean dominate during a storm. The funny thing is, about 5" of my snow was eliminated on the day we had close to half an inch of freezing rain to start. The precip completely stopped, but a warm front briefly went north of us and spiked our temp up past 40 and with high humidity. NOTHING will destroy snow more efficiently than that.

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The vast majority of my snowcover is gone here on Long Island (we had some wicked coastal front 45F torches 1-2 weeks ago), and what's left in my town will almost definitely be gone by the end of this week considering most of us should get above 50 multiple times by then. We're mostly reduced to the ugly black side of the road piles that are better taken out of their misery. Areas that are shaded most of the time still do have some good snowpack though.

You guys are at least lucky you're not vulnerable to massive few hour or so long torches when southerly winds off the ocean dominate during a storm. The funny thing is, about 5" of my snow was eliminated on the day we had close to half an inch of freezing rain to start. The precip completely stopped, but a warm front briefly went north of us and spiked our temp up past 40 and with high humidity. NOTHING will destroy snow more efficiently than that.

It's def going to be a process for the folks that still have decent snowpacks back here, esp in the more wooded areas. The ice storm from a couple weeks ago really made the stuff on the ground into concrete. I took the snowboard out on it last night in the backyard and couldn't even get an edge into it. It looks like the best days of this warm up are going to be Thursday and Friday before things cool back down to a regime similar to what we'll see tomorrow and Tuesday. But def widespread 55-65 for the commonwealth looks pretty likely both of those days. Funny u mention about the oceans hand in spiking the temps after storms. In this case, the warmest days on Long Island are probably going to be a bit cooler than the folks inland because of what would be in this setup.. colder ocean waters.

As we get to the end of the week and are basking in the heat wave, the potential event thats been lurking off and on in the models for next week will likely become some kind of a more noteworthy topic of conversation. CTP also acknowledges possibility of a sig precip event in their long term disco. 12z Euro ultimately runs an eastern lakes GLC and possibly a mix to rain scenario for some.. maybe. 12z GFS was much further north and warmer and the new 18z GFS looks more like the Euro. There's going to be a point where the frontal boundary settles over or south of us giving us at least a marginally chilly setup beforehand, and may present a more wintry scenario if the cold air makes a great press. But given the really negative PNA pattern vs a generally netural NAO i'd say the chances of that event being a mainly rain event is very high.. Unless the -PNA pattern neutralizes in future model runs there's just nothing there really to keep the boundary from being lifted northward in response to a deepening storm. With that said, it will be something to watch for a least some of the interior northeast. Attm I just tend to think that could pose more of a wintry threat in interior New England and maybe upstate NY above I-90.

Beyond, I don't think winters done at this point. There's a lot of cold air in the pattern that will likely rear its ugly head at some point and probably make for perhaps another cold period where there could be snow/ice threats. What's debatable is how quickly that happens. Until the PNA backs off to at least a more neutral regime assuming the NAO/AO is status quo, established cold is going to be unlikely. Obviously, if you like the prospects of another good snow event or so you'd want something like that to reestablish by say at least the first week of March. But if it lags and doesn't happen to the middle of March or later, it becomes alot harder given climo averages/sun angle/etc and then your just stuck with crappy cold and rainy weather. As I said the other day, this la nina hasn't exactly been "normal", so anything can happen. But I don't expect a repeat of last March this year.

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It always surprises me how UNV is so high on nights like these. It's certainly not in the downtown area and it's in the middle of mostly sheltered farm and valley land outside of town.

The only reason for it being so warm some nights that I can see is that it sits above the areas of the valley immediately surrounding it. The majority of the airport is 1215-1230ft, go 1-2 miles in any direction and you end up between 975 and 1150ft in general.

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Looks like this maybe a decent wind event, hoping to see some gust around 40MPH. It looks like we are screwed in winter terms, the long range looks horrible, and the -PNA is going to stick around which will allow the storm track to cut into the lakes, especially with no blocking with the AO being positive. Hopefully March can save winter, which would be nice seeming how it torched the area last spring.

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34F. Apparently a cold spot as places to the South are already well into the mid 40's.

Some cooler air trapped in the Lebanon Valley temporarily? Pretty common...there have a been a few times where I've left my house in Lebanon County when it was 40° or so, and by the time I hit Harrisburg and then Perry County it's well into the 50s.

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I wonder if we can make a run at 70 later this week. I read recently that models struggle this time of year with daytime heating, often overdoing cold air and underestimating warm air. Would be nice if it happened...

I don't know what's gotten in to me, as much as I love snow and normally hate the onset of spring, I'm sick of the cold weather right now. I think I'd actually be content if we were done with the cold and wintery precip down here, though I do wonder if we end up getting a big storm sometime in March. I think all of the talk that winter is definitely over seems awfully bold right now considering it's still the middle of February...in 1982 we had 7" of snow in early April. A lot can still happen yet down the road.

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I like the beginning of CTP's near term discussion...inspires confidence...:lol:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TEMPS CONTINUE TO DEFY GUIDANCE...HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING IN

SOME AREAS WHEN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE FALLING. MAKES TODAY`S

HIGH TEMP FORECAST A REAL CHALLENGE AS WE ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

I was not expecting to be sitting at 50.5° already, but I'll take it...feels great.

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I wonder if we can make a run at 70 later this week. I read recently that models struggle this time of year with daytime heating, often overdoing cold air and underestimating warm air. Would be nice if it happened...

I don't know what's gotten in to me, as much as I love snow and normally hate the onset of spring, I'm sick of the cold weather right now. I think I'd actually be content if we were done with the cold and wintery precip down here, though I do wonder if we end up getting a big storm sometime in March. I think all of the talk that winter is definitely over seems awfully bold right now considering it's still the middle of February...in 1982 we had 7" of snow in early April. A lot can still happen yet down the road.

I think that's quite possible, a run at 70.

I don't think anyone can say, at least for up here, that winter is done. I have seen too many premature proclamations of winter's demise become buried in snow to think that.

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