Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Certainly up your way, I think you're far from done. (at least as far as chances go) Even with a crappy pattern upcoming over the next couple of weeks, you can still cash in big time in mid March. Heck, I had a foot down here on the 16th just 4 years ago. And that was like 2 days after I hit 80.

Honestly, I still think the southern tier is in the running for something special later in March. Big snows that late in the season, while not exactly "normal", have happened several times that I can recall.

Well technically I didn't say winter is over, it is far from over I know that, but looks like the next week and a half winter takes a back seat. I wouldn't be surprised to see flood watches go up with the next system potentially bringing a 1"+ QPF which looks to be in the form of liquid but time will tell. This storm for me anyways looks like initially sleet then switching over to plain snow so hopefully I can pick up 4-6" . March is always an interesting month in winter because it can go either way. Some winters are huge in terms of snowfalls and others torch like last winter. I agree though, I wouldn't be surprised to see winter come back with vengence after this next thaw like pattern for the week. I left the house at 7AM this morning and temps were -8°F and it looked like it was slightly falling more as I left, so I will report the official number once I get home, hopefully it reached -9°F would be pretty cool. PA couldn't ask for a better day today, crystal clear skies and plenty of sunshine until clouds slowly increase throughout the day with the advancement of the next storm system. Hopefully we can get that NAO to go neutral or slightly negative to get a favorable storm track instead of it cutting. According to CPC we just had the NAO go neutral which I think was the main reason for the round of winter storms we just encountered. I just think its going to be tough for I-80 south to see much snow with a -PNA and +NAO for the remainder of the week, usually thats a bad combo and with no blocking (-AO) to go with it which means if a storm becomes too amplified there is nothing keeping it from heading to the lakes. I think the big problem is the PV retrogrades to the west establishing itself in central Canada which isn't good because it pumps up the 500mb heights in the NE.

[JamieOber]

Well technically I didn't say winter is over, it is far from over I know that, but looks like the next week and a half winter takes a back seat. I wouldn't be surprised to see flood watches go up with the next system potentially bringing a 1"+ QPF which looks to be in the form of liquid but time will tell. This storm for me anyways looks like initially sleet then switching over to plain snow so hopefully I can pick up 4-6" . March is always an interesting month in winter because it can go either way. Some winters are huge in terms of snowfalls and others torch like last winter. I agree though, I wouldn't be surprised to see winter come back with vengence after this next thaw like pattern for the week. I left the house at 7AM this morning and temps were -8°F and it looked like it was slightly falling more as I left, so I will report the official number once I get home, hopefully it reached -9°F would be pretty cool. PA couldn't ask for a better day today, crystal clear skies and plenty of sunshine until clouds slowly increase throughout the day with the advancement of the next storm system. Hopefully we can get that NAO to go neutral or slightly negative to get a favorable storm track instead of it cutting. According to CPC we just had the NAO go neutral which I think was the main reason for the round of winter storms we just encountered. I just think its going to be tough for I-80 south to see much snow with a -PNA and +NAO for the remainder of the week, usually thats a bad combo and with no blocking (-AO) to go with it which means if a storm becomes too amplified there is nothing keeping it from heading to the lakes. I think the big problem is the PV retrogrades to the west establishing itself in central Canada which isn't good because it pumps up the 500mb heights in the NE.

We didn't torch last winter, unless you meant March. Then we torched. But winter for the northern half of PA was more or less average in temps and snow. It was epic for the southern half.

March, on the other hand, last year was a torch and a half.

It does look like a break next week but not sure how long that lasts. We weren't supposed to see any winter weather for the rest of this month, the way it looked last week at this time.

[The Iceman]

if NAM is right, central pa gets dry slotted in southern areas, still over an inch of rain though. wonder if flood watches will go up tonight, i would have to think it's a decent possibility as the ground is already saturated from all the melting snow.

[NortheastPAWx]

Potter has a great chance of seeing heavy snow with this one.

Other areas in the north seem to be on the border.

Good luck everyone. Looks like I'll be dealing with 35 and rain Friday.

[The Iceman]

Potter has a great chance of seeing heavy snow with this one.

Other areas in the north seem to be on the border.

Good luck everyone. Looks like I'll be dealing with 35 and rain Friday.

i was thinking, i can't really remember any all day all rain events this winter....certainly a first for me.

[NortheastPAWx]

i was thinking, i can't really remember any all day all rain events this winter....certainly a first for me.

Last I remember was December 12th. February 5th was as well for some (For me it was ice to rain).

[The Iceman]

gfs prints out widespread 1.25"+ for the entire region. potter gets destroyed.

[kdskidoo]

gfs prints out widespread 1.25"+ for the entire region. potter gets destroyed.

so you're thinking the mountains of northern Lycoming, Potter, and Clinton counties should see mostly snow?

[The Iceman]

so you're thinking the mountains of northern Lycoming, Potter, and Clinton counties should see mostly snow?

yeah right now it looks that way imo

[PottercountyWXobserver]

gfs prints out widespread 1.25"+ for the entire region. potter gets destroyed.

The QPF is certainly there, but I think its going to be closer than most think on here. The NAM cuts it pretty close with mixing literally just 20 miles to my south. I will be sweating it out until the event is within 24hrs. I'm hoping the Canadian is showing its bias with the track being to far inland, but the GFS might be showing its bias also with the SE track with it possibly being the outlier. The NAM is still in the medium range and I would trust it's solution until at least 00Z tonight. In a way, this system could set the stage for terrible flooding early next week. With this storm potentially dropping over a 1" of QPF combined with the .85-1" already on the ground through snowpack, any storm that brings rain with it will cause flashing flooding issues. Usually with a storm track over Harrisburgh the northern sections of PA manage well with snow. I haven't gotten the chance to check out the Euro, how is its solution? I heard it was similar with the JMA and UKMET? So is it Foreign vs. North American models still?

[MAG5035]

Winter storm watches going up for the traditional north-central counties... standby

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

321 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

.ANOTHER WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-240430-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.110225T0900Z-110226T0000Z/

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-

NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...

ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...

LAPORTE

321 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY

NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER.

* TIMING...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME

NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR POOR TRAVEL

CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS. THERE WILL BE

POTENTIAL FOR THE WET SNOW TO BRING POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF

THE PERIOD.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY

TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER

INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO

BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

[2001kx]

Winter storm watches going up for the traditional north-central counties... standby

seems like im always 1 county away from the fun

maybe things will change for the better once we get closer.

[Festus]

Definitely shaping up as a significant event.

WSW's north.

Flood watches west.

Gotta think the flood potential flags will be issued east by this time tomorrow.

[MAG5035]

seems like im always 1 county away from the fun

maybe things will change for the better once we get closer.

Yea, things are starting to lock in with that track along the mason-dixon line or slightly above through PA. What will likely happen when the period gets closer is that CTP might bring another tier or two into advisories for snowfall falling on friday as the low starts to move by and likely start dropping the rain/snow line into the central counties. This should be a pretty cut and dry rain vs snow event with not very much ice to speak of, given the fact there's no anchored high thats going to provide low level cold over the overrunning warm air aloft. The new snowfall map has most of Clearfield in 3-4". As a side note, NWS Binghamton threw up watches for THEIR northern tier counties.. so its pretty obvious what nationality of guidance they're leaning toward for right or wrong (euro/canadian). Gonna be one of those events where a couple degrees and ultimate tracks makes a big difference.

Definitely shaping up as a significant event.

WSW's north.

Flood watches west.

Gotta think the flood potential flags will be issued east by this time tomorrow.

It's possible, but I think they'd get hoisted in the further southeast counties in the Susquehanna valley.. say Perry, Dauphin counties and south to the border. I'm pretty pessimistic about it getting warm enough for a rapid snowmelt situation overall.. but thats the only place that may have a chance of busting into temps of >40ºF along with the PBZ counties that are already headlined with FF watches. Most folks are probably going to see the bulk of the rain fall with temps in the 30s, and that will allow the snowpack to absorb alot of rain without rapid release into the streams. I'll be curious to see what CTP thinks when they update the rest of the discussion soon.

[JSTWX]

seems like im always 1 county away from the fun

maybe things will change for the better once we get closer.

I have a feeling that by tomorrow evening, even McKean and Tioga will be one county away. This is going to be a warm storm, SE ridge is

[JSTWX]

Once again, CTP and myself are at odds on the extended:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY RAIN ON THU...WET

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON THU NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL

GO OVER TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY...AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. UPWARDS OF

6 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE NY BORDER...THUS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH.

WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON QPF THAN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT.

THERE IS 2 SYSTEMS...MUCH OF THU NIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE

ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM TRENDING STRONGER

AND FURTHER SOUTH NOW. 558 THICKNESS LINE SOUTH OF THIS

AREA...THUS NOT REAL CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS OR SEVERE STORMS.

SNOW SHOULD END BY 00Z SAT.

SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NOT LOOKING BAD.

SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NOW STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH. RAISED MIN TEMPS

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE

FORM OF RAIN...BUT LEFT MENTION OF SNOW IN FCST.

THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE 558 THICKNESS LINE GETS CLOSE...HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL

FOR STRONG STORMS. BY THEN...SNOW PACK WILL BE LESS...HAVE TO WATCH

FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

STILL LOOKING WINDY AND COLDER ON TUE

[Festus]

Kind of a lame Long Term discussion by CTP but this sentence caught my eye...

"558 THICKNESS LINE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...THUS NOT REAL CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS OR SEVERE STORMS."

I'll do a Central PA version of "Ask a Met".

What's being described here?

[CranberryWX]

The QPF is certainly there, but I think its going to be closer than most think on here. The NAM cuts it pretty close with mixing literally just 20 miles to my south. I will be sweating it out until the event is within 24hrs. I'm hoping the Canadian is showing its bias with the track being to far inland, but the GFS might be showing its bias also with the SE track with it possibly being the outlier. The NAM is still in the medium range and I would trust it's solution until at least 00Z tonight. In a way, this system could set the stage for terrible flooding early next week. With this storm potentially dropping over a 1" of QPF combined with the .85-1" already on the ground through snowpack, any storm that brings rain with it will cause flashing flooding issues. Usually with a storm track over Harrisburgh the northern sections of PA manage well with snow. I haven't gotten the chance to check out the Euro, how is its solution? I heard it was similar with the JMA and UKMET? So is it Foreign vs. North American models still?

Hey...we're heading up to our camp in Potter County on Friday. I've been trying to keep up with this event for our travel plans. Either way it looks warm enough to keep potential road issues okay with salt, and it looks like we will only run into snow once we get close to the northern tier counties. My main concern is losing power at the camp if the snow is wet and heavy.

[dcfox1]

Down here the ground was already soaked from the earlier melt off before the 5-6" and refreeze. The sun and 30's today has done its number to get at least around here the pack to 2-3". If we get at least 1" of rain I would assume at least minor flooding.

[JSTWX]

Kind of a lame Long Term discussion by CTP but this sentence caught my eye...

"558 THICKNESS LINE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...THUS NOT REAL CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS OR SEVERE STORMS."

I'll do a Central PA version of "Ask a Met".

What's being described here?

Thickness depends on the average temperature and moisture content in a column of air. As temperature and/or moisture increases, the thickness increases. This occurs since warm air has more energy (more collisions of air molecules with each other) and thus expands to a larger volume. The 558 thickness is where the air is typically warm enough (moist enough) to generate storms if the other parameters are in place. (LI, fronts, CAPE, etc)

[MAG5035]

Once again, CTP and myself are at odds on the extended:

Yea this is a pretty interesting discussion.. again haha. He does bring up a point about this coming in two pieces or "systems" i guess. But I don't really see a further south trend as much as I see the models zeroing in on what had been pretty much the consensus between the euro and gfs models, with the Euro putting the low thru southwest to northeastern PA and the GFS coming north a bit again to a hair southeast of the ecmwf. Both models do show support for the northern tier watch, but its gonna be after a period of rain. I think the Canadian is the nw outlier at this point.

[Festus]

Thickness depends on the average temperature and moisture content in a column of air. As temperature and/or moisture increases, the thickness increases. This occurs since warm air has more energy (more collisions of air molecules with each other) and thus expands to a larger volume. The 558 thickness is where the air is typically warm enough (moist enough) to generate storms if the other parameters are in place. (LI, fronts, CAPE, etc)

Thanks dude, much appreciated.

Always a bit humbling to see the huge gap between my hobbyist knowledge and the experts.

[JSTWX]

Yea this is a pretty interesting discussion.. again haha. He does bring up a point about this coming in two pieces or "systems" i guess. But I don't really see a further south trend as much as I see the models zeroing in on what had been pretty much the consensus between the euro and gfs models, with the Euro putting the low thru southwest to northeastern PA and the GFS coming north a bit again to a hair southeast of the ecmwf. Both models do show support for the northern tier watch, but its gonna be after a period of rain. I think the Canadian is the nw outlier at this point.

My concern for the WSW area is the nam. It's been coming north every single run since 0z Tuesday. The 18z run is wicked warm.

I saw the 925 temps on the Euro weren't below 0°C anywhere in the state until midday Friday.

[MAG5035]

My concern for the WSW area is the nam. It's been coming north every single run since 0z Tuesday. The 18z run is wicked warm.

I saw the 925 temps on the Euro weren't below 0°C anywhere in the state until midday Friday.

Oh wow that new run did come in really high, pretty much the canadian's track. Overall its def telling what this current storm pattern is going to yield without a nice high in place like with monday's event.

[NortheastPAWx]

I'm kind of hoping it goes further north...if it rains, it may as well be warm. What good is 35 and rain (Besides increasing one's chances of getting sick)?

[Rick G]

I'm kind of hoping it goes further north...if it rains, it may as well be warm. What good is 35 and rain (Besides increasing one's chances of getting sick)?

We will have to see, my concern is the possiblity of flooding with an inch of liquid. we have about 8 inches still on the ground and the rain/mix should just push it right to the creeks and streams. Anyway I am still stuck at home..

[pawatch]

My concern for the WSW area is the nam. It's been coming north every single run since 0z Tuesday. The 18z run is wicked warm.

I saw the 925 temps on the Euro weren't below 0°C anywhere in the state until midday Friday.

Tony or anyone

You said that you was looking at the 925 temps. Alot of times 850 temps get used as reference.

Looking at these upper level temps is it important to look at each layer. Or just looking at one level will that pretty much indicate what the temp are going to be.

I guess what I am asking is any one level more important?

Thank You for your replies!

[MAG5035]

Tony or anyone

You said that you was looking at the 925 temps. Alot of times 850 temps get used as reference.

Looking at these upper level temps is it important to look at each layer. Or just looking at one level will that pretty much indicate what the temp are going to be.

I guess what I am asking is any one level more important?

Thank You for your replies!

In certain situations it can snow or change over to snow while the surface temps are above freezing. With the case of the deepening storm as it starts moving off to the northeast of us, the air aloft starts to cool first. 850 mb temps can be below freezing but still be rain if its warm enough at the 925 level down to the surface. If the 850mb and 925 mb level are below freezing, that can support snow making it to the ground even if temps are still like 34 or 35 degrees initially after changing over from rain as the 925mb level translates to about 3000' in altitude (generally), or whatever you get when you subtract your elevation from that.

[pawatch]

In certain situations it can snow or change over to snow while the surface temps are above freezing. With the case of the deepening storm as it starts moving off to the northeast of us, the air aloft starts to cool first. 850 mb temps can be below freezing but still be rain if its warm enough at the 925 level down to the surface. If the 850mb and 925 mb level are below freezing, that can support snow making it to the ground even if temps are still like 34 or 35 degrees initially after changing over from rain as the 925mb level translates to about 3000' in altitude (generally), or whatever you get when you subtract your elevation from that.

Mag thanks so much!! I'm learning slow but steady

[dcfox1]

In certain situations it can snow or change over to snow while the surface temps are above freezing. With the case of the deepening storm as it starts moving off to the northeast of us, the air aloft starts to cool first. 850 mb temps can be below freezing but still be rain if its warm enough at the 925 level down to the surface. If the 850mb and 925 mb level are below freezing, that can support snow making it to the ground even if temps are still like 34 or 35 degrees initially after changing over from rain as the 925mb level translates to about 3000' in altitude (generally), or whatever you get when you subtract your elevation from that.

Good info