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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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Heavy snow here in Pittsburgh. I have almost an inch of snow already in the last hour or so.

Thanks for the update, I like Pittsburghers offering input. Appreciate it.

Broke through here now. it looks like ice melt pellets.

lol, those pellets do look like that.

18z NAM Cobb Data Table gives UNV 10.4: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kunv

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Looking at the regional radar, water vapor and surface observations, I feel the Mason-Dixon counties are in a prime setup for around 6" of snow...including Lancaster County and extreme SW Chester County (places like Oxford and Hickory Hill). Now what makes me so confident in this (greater than 50%)? Well I'll explain.

1.) Looking at the observations in western PA and Ohio, the magic number for the dew point is 23 degrees for snow to begin. Lancaster (KLNS), York (KTHV), Krout Airport in SW Adams County (KRYT), Harrisburg (KMDT) and Chester County (KMQS) all have a DP near 23. Virga will not be an issue in the aforementioned locations, and this is true since I have flurries ongoing right now.

2.) The latest radar trends are showing moderate to occasionally heavy snow breaking out as far north as Clearfield County, PA. While the dry air will eat up initial snow, it is a sign the system is more energetic. Also in Fulton and Franklin counties, there are echoes pushing 30dbz which are below 10,000ft. They don't have to fall too far through the column!

3.) I've noticed a slight north and east shift with the axis of heavier precip on the short term and hi-res models have been showing the aforementioned counties breaking the 6-inch mark for several runs. While this will be a quick system, it will be noteworthy!

Enjoy folks! :)

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Looks like the initial gradient is setting up in a line going WNW to ESE such that Altoona sees heavy snow and State College gets nothing for a few hours. Any observations out of Altoona? Curious to see how heavy the snow is there.

Good closeup radar centered around State College:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_CTP/animauto.html

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Looks like the initial gradient is setting up in a line going WNW to ESE such that Altoona sees heavy snow and State College gets nothing for a few hours. Any observations out of Altoona? Curious to see how heavy the snow is there.

Good closeup radar centered around State College:

http://www.meteo.psu...P/animauto.html

The dew pts. are dropping like a rock in northern Pa.

http://www.erh.noaa..../dewpt_loop.htm

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Looks like the initial gradient is setting up in a line going WNW to ESE such that Altoona sees heavy snow and State College gets nothing for a few hours. Any observations out of Altoona? Curious to see how heavy the snow is there.

Good closeup radar centered around State College:

http://www.meteo.psu...P/animauto.html

Looks heavy in Altoona: http://www.511pa.com/Traffic.aspx

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Looks like the initial gradient is setting up in a line going WNW to ESE such that Altoona sees heavy snow and State College gets nothing for a few hours. Any observations out of Altoona? Curious to see how heavy the snow is there.

Good closeup radar centered around State College:

http://www.meteo.psu...P/animauto.html

Hmm....at least for now, radar doesn't look great for Centre County.

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