Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,603
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

How do you think the radar looks? Of course, I guess radar trends can blow up in one's face, lol.

Radars looking nice and expansive. At this point I'm def not concerned about at least reaching the numbers that CTP has forecasted. They have a pretty decent forecast out I think. But I would not be surprised if there were 1-3 more inches than forecasted for the corridor between route 22 and I-80, which would hopefully render my initial fears of an I-80 screwzone ribbon moot. Although when I mentioned about that, I was defining screw zone as like 1-3 inches total for the whole 2 pronged event, and that corridor generally scored that with the first wave. At any rate the radar looks fine right now.

What looks even better for the likes of the Altoona/State College to Harrisburg folks is the 18z HRRR :lol:

Hour 8

post-1507-0-54701300-1298318670.png

Hour 9

post-1507-0-50815500-1298318701.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Explain a bit more, please? On phone SP can't see it well. Thanks in adva nce. :)

It basically showed the cutoff of precip right thru MDT. SW got alot, while MDT and points NE got basically nothing. BTW, new NAM is a little further north.I think MDT should do well with this storm.IMHO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Radars looking nice and expansive. At this point I'm def not concerned about at least reaching the numbers that CTP has forecasted. They have a pretty decent forecast out I think. But I would not be surprised if there were 1-3 more inches than forecasted for the corridor between route 22 and I-80, which would hopefully render my initial fears of an I-80 screwzone ribbon moot. Although when I mentioned about that, I was defining screw zone as like 1-3 inches total for the whole 2 pronged event, and that corridor generally scored that with the first wave. At any rate the radar looks fine right now.

What looks even better for the likes of the Altoona/State College to Harrisburg folks is the 18z HRRR :lol:

Hour 8

post-1507-0-54701300-1298318670.png

Hour 9

post-1507-0-50815500-1298318701.png

that looks great to me!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If that is the trend, then Lanc. Co. should be upgraded.

Yea radar trends will need to be watched as this gets underway in PA. I think the printout from that particular model is ok till about about the 4 or 5 inch line. The corridor of 4-5+ is likely about 50 miles or so too far northeast, and it maybe pretty robust on totals once it gets to that part of PA.. but we shall see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z NAM came in meaningfully north with the heavier precip for the central regions. Now UNV is over 0.5" instead of around 0.25" on the 12z.

12z:

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html

18z:

http://www.meteo.psu...8z/etaloop.html

good sign for those North and maybe can add to what they got last night

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea radar trends will need to be watched as this gets underway in PA. I think the printout from that particular model is ok till about about the 4 or 5 inch line. The corridor of 4-5+ is likely about 50 miles or so too far northeast, and it maybe pretty robust on totals once it gets to that part of PA.. but we shall see.

This is getting interesting.

Noted snow has now reached Altoona as per 511PA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea radar trends will need to be watched as this gets underway in PA. I think the printout from that particular model is ok till about about the 4 or 5 inch line. The corridor of 4-5+ is likely about 50 miles or so too far northeast, and it maybe pretty robust on totals once it gets to that part of PA.. but we shall see.

I hear ya, very sharp gradient setup,not fun to forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...