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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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I hope this isn't too OT, but I had to vent to folks who understand. This is an e-mail I just got from the booking agent of a concert in Baltimore tonight....

"i dont plan on cancelling the show! mainly because i don't think it'll snow but also because it should be too warm today for snow?? low of 30 sooo fingers crossed :) "

Is this really how she's making her decision??! people.....

that is pretty lol-tastic, although I guess it would depend on the time of the show.

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that is pretty lol-tastic, although I guess it would depend on the time of the show.

well, I did lol briefly after removing my palm from my face. my band headlines at 10:45.... so leaving baltimore around 12. i think the shows like 8ish maybe? on a weather note, the n wind is picking up here and temp has dropped 4 degrees to 35

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well, I did lol briefly after removing my palm from my face. my band headlines at 10:45.... so leaving baltimore around 12. i think the shows like 8ish maybe? on a weather note, the n wind is picking up here and temp has dropped 4 degrees to 35

Temps have taken a sudden downturn. I was at 38 for the longest time this morning into the early afternoon. Now Im down to 33. Dropped 3° in one hour.

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Temps have taken a sudden downturn. I was at 38 for the longest time this morning into the early afternoon. Now Im down to 33. Dropped 3° in one hour.

I'm down to 31.1º, I'm still surprised that the trees are hanging with ice. I figured there would be a time this morning where I'd have temps like that 38, but guess it never happened. That cold air must've started bleeding into the central valleys early today.

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I'm down to 31.1º, I'm still surprised that the trees are hanging with ice. I figured there would be a time this morning where I'd have temps like that 38, but guess it never happened. That cold air must've started bleeding into the central valleys early today.

This arctic air means business. I wouldn't be surprised to see some high ratios (higher amounts) later tonight. Especially since it's falling after sunset for the most part

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This arctic air means business. I wouldn't be surprised to see some high ratios (higher amounts) later tonight. Especially since it's falling after sunset for the most part

Yea thats a potential wildcard to keep an eye out for. I would think there will be some great snow growth and with surface temps prolly getting down thru the 20s later in the eve, there could be some 15:1 ratios could pop up in places when the heavy stuff gets in here. If some heavier bands punch up northeast enough, that possible enhanced ratio could jack up the snows a couple more inches in say southern Clearfield and southern Centre.

I bet someone in the Laurels see 12+ tonight.

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Yea thats a potential wildcard to keep an eye out for. I would think there will be some great snow growth and with surface temps prolly getting down thru the 20s later in the eve, there could be some 15:1 ratios could pop up in places when the heavy stuff gets in here. If some heavier bands punch up northeast enough, that possible enhanced ratio could jack up the snows a couple more inches in say southern Clearfield and southern Centre.

I bet someone in the Laurels see 12+ tonight.

Your words to God's ears. Or something like that.

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Discussion from MU's Horst...

Sorry for the delay updating...crazy busy! Tonight's storm is fascinating in that it's small, potent, and fast-moving...and it could dump up to a foot of snow on a small "sweet spot"! My bet is that Garrett county MD and Somerset county PA will be that sweet spot (highlighted on my Storm Outlook map below). Here in Lancaster, we'll be on the northern edge of the heavy snow band as it tapers eastward along the Mason-Dixon Line. I slight shift north/south, in the west-to-east storm track, would give us a couple inches more/less. My 2- to 5-inch forecast is the most likely outcome. Like the storm on January 26th, most of our snow will fall in a 6- to 8-hour period (8:00pm to 3:00am) and it could fall heavily for a short time. One important aspect of this storm is that Arctic air will be pressing in from the North throughout the night. So, while temperatures this afternoon are in the mid 30s, they will fall through the 20s tonight and perhaps reach the upper teens by dawn. The advance of this cold, dry air will help cut off the steady snow sometime between midnight and daybreak, so the faster the cold air moves in the faster the snow will end (and the less snow we'll get). I do expect the snow to be out of here before daybreak, so that the clean up can begin early Tuesday. Partly sunny skies will return, but Arctic air will hold temps below normal through Wednesday before a warming trend develops late in the week. Might this be winter's parting shot at the Lancaster area?

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Yea thats a potential wildcard to keep an eye out for. I would think there will be some great snow growth and with surface temps prolly getting down thru the 20s later in the eve, there could be some 15:1 ratios could pop up in places when the heavy stuff gets in here. If some heavier bands punch up northeast enough, that possible enhanced ratio could jack up the snows a couple more inches in say southern Clearfield and southern Centre.

I bet someone in the Laurels see 12+ tonight.

yeah i think i will be on the edge here dead center of the county.

my prediction for my backyard = 2.5"

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