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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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We ended up with 9.6" here on the mountain south of IPT...NWS forecast...3-5". NEVER updated to a Warning....severe travel disruptions, I couldn't even make it up the hill in a subaru to go to class...sitting out for the day lol.

I havent measured outside yet but it there is alot of snow out there. Biggest snow by far in a long while here. The liquid amount of precip was .66 at IPT airport. I agree the NWS blew this one bad, well, they should have at least put us in a WSW.

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I havent measured outside yet but it there is alot of snow out there. Biggest snow by far in a long while here. The liquid amount of precip was .66 at IPT airport. I agree the NWS blew this one bad, well, they should have at least put us in a WSW.

I was surprised at no upgrade there.

Looks like the next one is to our south.

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A guy doesn't log in for 12 hours and look what I've missed!

First, congrats to you guys up north. Very nice "surprise" storm you all got - so awesome to see!

Second, just reading comments here and seeing the maps I'd say MDT easily sees 3" and may top 5". Not bad, not bad ... especially since it was 68 degrees three days ago!

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A guy doesn't log in for 12 hours and look what I've missed!

First, congrats to you guys up north. Very nice "surprise" storm you all got - so awesome to see!

Second, just reading comments here and seeing the maps I'd say MDT easily sees 3" and may top 5". Not bad, not bad ... especially since it was 68 degrees three days ago!

I'm going with 5-7, unless something major changes in the next couple hours

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Wow we ended up with 10.5" for the storm. From 4-6AM there was hardly any accumulations, the storm was basically over, only picked up another .4" during this period. We still have managed to avoid that elusive 12" mark for storms but I'm not complaining, that was the biggest storm of the year by far this winter! The biggest storm before that one was 4.4" and that was back on December 2nd :arrowhead: . Now its my wx friends to the south that need to get in the action! Hopefully wave 2 hammers you guys.

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Here is a look at the 12z NAM simulated radar for 16z compared with the actual radar at 16z (11am):

Sim:

sim.bmp

Observed:

obs.bmp

The NAM is clearly underplaying the precip occurring across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Also, the actual precip is significantly further north than depicted. I think that may be something to watch over the next several hours, as this will be crucial as to where the northern cutoff situates itself.

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Here is a look at the 12z NAM simulated radar for 16z compared with the actual radar at 16z (11am):

Sim:

sim.bmp

Observed:

obs.bmp

The NAM is clearly underplaying the precip occurring across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Also, the actual precip is significantly further north than depicted. I think that may be something to watch over the next several hours, as this will be crucial as to where the northern cutoff situates itself.

The nam is definitely playing the cold, dry air card for northern/eastern sections. Temp is down to 17 at BFD with a strong NE wind. This may end up being a snow eater east of the mtns later tonight.

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