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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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The new GFS seems to show winter returning in the last several days; I don't buy it's exact idea of course but I am skeptical of this being the end of winter. But damn, I am looking forward to a bit of mild weather.

Agreed, I can't see us having another March-April like last year where winter disappeared March 1 and never reared its head again....pretty unusual around here.

45° and sunny would feel tropical at this point. :sun:

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This ridge means business - I would not be surprised at all if our Susquehanna Valley friends see 60 or better by next Friday or Saturday. :sun: It will be nice, dodging patches of ice is only fun for so long...

Yea after being delayed a bit by the shortwave coming thru of the lakes this warm-up is def going to have its way once to the latter half of the week. Beyond that 0z Euro and GFS diverge a bit, with the GFS trying to reinstate a colder regime relatively quickly and the Euro gets really warm with +10ºC at 850mb just a lil ways below the mason-dixon around the next sunday timeframe, and stays pretty warm right through 240.

At the moment, even if cold air does return quicker in the long term like the GFS any storms that develop have a high chance of cutting given the dominant forecast -PNA regime and neutral NAO/+AO. It will be interesting to see what the models start looking like once we're basking in the warmth by the end of next week. The one thing about the +AO is that is going to allow the arctic air up north to build up and eventually make another run once teleconnections start supporting such things. I'm def thinking that it might be wise to enjoy the warmth while its around next week and however longer it ultimately ends up staying...given the la nina climo with March. Of course, there hasn't been anything regular about this particular la nina. I don't expect a repeat of last March though.

Btw, its at least 5 degrees currently, as per my wireless thermometer with the somewhat protected sensor. I probably could get a few degrees colder going outside with the handheld, but the point is made.. its effing cold out. :snowman:

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Yea after being delayed a bit by the shortwave coming thru of the lakes this warm-up is def going to have its way once to the latter half of the week. Beyond that 0z Euro and GFS diverge a bit, with the GFS trying to reinstate a colder regime relatively quickly and the Euro gets really warm with +10ºC at 850mb just a lil ways below the mason-dixon around the next sunday timeframe, and stays pretty warm right through 240.

At the moment, even if cold air does return quicker in the long term like the GFS any storms that develop have a high chance of cutting given the dominant forecast -PNA regime and neutral NAO/+AO. It will be interesting to see what the models start looking like once we're basking in the warmth by the end of next week. The one thing about the +AO is that is going to allow the arctic air up north to build up and eventually make another run once teleconnections start supporting such things. I'm def thinking that it might be wise to enjoy the warmth while its around next week and however longer it ultimately ends up staying...given the la nina climo with March. Of course, there hasn't been anything regular about this particular la nina. I don't expect a repeat of last March though.

Btw, its at least 5 degrees currently, as per my wireless thermometer with the somewhat protected sensor. I probably could get a few degrees colder going outside with the handheld, but the point is made.. its effing cold out. :snowman:

Thanks for the update.

We got down to -3.3 this am. It was -1.1 when I left.

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Here at Penn State three of my friends do a podcast called The U Report where they talk to people "behind the scenes" at Penn State about something interesting that they do. They found my Twitter weather posts via #CentreCast to be interesting.

Here it is: http://theureport.posterous.com/the-link-between-education-technology-service

If you don't want to hear the stuff about what I do at Penn State, you can forward to 4:30 where I talk about how I got into weather, AmericanWx.com and how it changed my little hobby of weather, and some of the ways weather forecasting organizations completely fail at communicating forecasts and help along the myth that forecasts are never right.

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February titles are about as good as 3-0 starts in football...

And yes, bring on the warmth. This winter has been frustrating.

February titles? We haven't had a winning season since '97 when we went wire to wire. I've been around a long time, and trust me, I'm not predicting any titles any time soon. Just saying that finally, there is reason to be optomistic as an O's fan. At the very least they should be competitive this year. I do long for the good 'ole days of yesteryear when we would routinely smack the Yankees around silly, but of course, that was before your time.

Back to the weather, yeah, if the Euro weeklies that came out yesterday are correct, winter is cooked. I'm ready for whatever happens, but 60's sounds kind of nice right about now...

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February titles? We haven't had a winning season since '97 when we went wire to wire. I've been around a long time, and trust me, I'm not predicting any titles any time soon. Just saying that finally, there is reason to be optomistic as an O's fan. At the very least they should be competitive this year. I do long for the good 'ole days of yesteryear when we would routinely smack the Yankees around silly, but of course, that was before your time.

Back to the weather, yeah, if the Euro weeklies that came out yesterday are correct, winter is cooked. I'm ready for whatever happens, but 60's sounds kind of nice right about now...

Oriole fan here also - looking forward to this season as well. I too can remember the 70s Orioles.

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I posted this over in Off Topic, but since you guys are awesome I'll post here in case anyone can help me out.

I'm looking for weather info that can be used on web sites via iframes or anything else? We currently are using WeatherBug (see: http://witf.org/news/weather) but this won't fit the color scheme or style of a new site I'm developing.

The guy who developed this a few years back is long gone and no one knows where any of this info is at, of course. I know AccuWeather has a plugin but it's not great and is kind of hard to get the code to read correctly.

I have a widget that works but need a full-page featured set. Thanks.

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I posted this over in Off Topic, but since you guys are awesome I'll post here in case anyone can help me out.

I'm looking for weather info that can be used on web sites via iframes or anything else? We currently are using WeatherBug (see: http://witf.org/news/weather) but this won't fit the color scheme or style of a new site I'm developing.

The guy who developed this a few years back is long gone and no one knows where any of this info is at, of course. I know AccuWeather has a plugin but it's not great and is kind of hard to get the code to read correctly.

I have a widget that works but need a full-page featured set. Thanks.

Did you try poking around the weatherunderground.com site? They might have one.

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The warmup looks great later next week for sure.... but there's plenty of winter on the table heading toward the end of the month and into March. Check this out:

Euro Day 10

With a trough trying to go into the GOA and east of Hawaii, we should see a trough (of some sorts) try to come back into the NE. Not super cold, but cold enough if we time things right with a favorable storm track.

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