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Central PA Mid-February Obs/Discussion


PennMan

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I'm now at exactly 2.5" for the storm and had a hourly fall of .8" . This next hour is going to take a hit in intensity while the band under goes stregthening. The flakes are still rather small.

Whats going on west of you should be interesting as well. Some really heavy echoes coming into PA as per the PBZ radar. There is likely sleet in this, but as it works into further north-central PA where the cold is better entrenched, this could be some pretty heavy snow.

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Whats going on west of you should be interesting as well. Some really heavy echoes coming into PA as per the PBZ radar. There is likely sleet in this, but as it works into further north-central PA where the cold is better entrenched, this could be some pretty heavy snow.

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Yeah that band looks very juicy showing some widespread 40Dbz returns :thumbsup: (How much of this is bright banding though? Especially from the sleet and partially melted snow), to me it looks to slide off to the W with a slight Southerly drift. Has its eyes set on Emporium in Cameron county, they look to be the bullseye for wave 1. The heavier returns have definitely missed me to the south, I can't wait to see how their totals shape up. From there it looks like Renovo and Lock Haven see the heart of this band :) I believe there are wxObservers out of Renovo and Emporium so it should be interesting.

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Yeah that band looks very juicy showing some 40Dbz returns :thumbsup: , to me it looks to slide off to the W with a slight Southerly drift. Has its eyes set on Emporium in Cameron county, they look to be the bullseye for wave 1. The heavier returns have definitely missed me to the south, I can't wait to see how their totals shape up. From there it looks like Renovo and Lock Haven see the heart of this band :) I believe there are wxObservers out of Renovo and Emporium so it should be interesting.

Yea there's going to be a corridor in northern PA that could see a big thump of snow overnight, and they look like pretty good candidates. Trying to remember what part of Potter your in, are you close to the NY border or you in a diff part of the county? Any rate to go further on the details of that heavy stuff coming into PA, I just seen my friend's post in the upstate NY thread with a BGM near term update from a lil bit ago. And this is something that you, 2001kx, psuhazelton, the two w-port guys, and north central PA above I-80 in general might be interested in.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

929 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --UPDATED AT 9 PM... REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS/SFC OBS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES AS OF THIS WRITING...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA...FROM W TO E...THROUGH 05Z.

18Z GFS/NAM RUNS ARE VERY MUCH IN SYNC WITH THE 12Z RUNS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER (REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW). SOME INTERESTING THINGS TO NOTE UPSTREAM EARLY THIS EVENING...FIRSTLY...THE CHARACTER OF THE RADARLWR MI/LK MI (QUITE CELLULAR/CONVECTIVE LOOKING)...AND ALSO THE REPORTS OF THUNDER-SNOW NEAR DETROIT. THE 00Z DETROIT SOUNDING SHOWED WHAT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE AN ABSOLUTE MOIST UNSTABLE LAYER (MAUL) FROM 600-500 MB. AS THIS ENVIRONMENT TRANSLATES EWD LATER TONIGHT...THE PROSPECTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED +SN BANDS WITHIN THE LARGER PCPN SHIELD WOULD SEEM LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. ECHOES OVER

MODEL CROSS-SXNS FROM 06-12Z ACROSS NE PA/CNTRL NY SHOW A NICE BURST OF NEG EPV...JUST PRIOR TO THE BEST FGEN FORCING/SLOPED ASCENT (A NICE RECIPE FOR BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL). IT WOULD APPEAR THE COMBINATION OF THIS GOOD FRONTAL-SCALE FORCING/STG ISEN LIFT...IS PEGGED TO CROSS THE TWIN TIERS FROM ABOUT 08-12Z...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DROPPING ESEWD INTO THE WYO/LACK VALLEYS. THE LATEST HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IMAGES DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALSO SEEM TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO.

BOTTOM LINE...OUR WARNINGS FROM KELM ESEWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA LOOK JUST FINE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE HRRR ALSO SHOWING A RAPID EXIT OF PCPN FROM 12-15Z. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO THIS...MAY OVERCOME RELATIVELY SHORT DURATIONS (3-6 HR).

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Yea there's going to be a corridor in northern PA that could see a big thump of snow overnight, and they look like pretty good candidates. Trying to remember what part of Potter your in, are you close to the NY border or you in a diff part of the county? Any rate to go further on the details of that heavy stuff coming into PA, I just seen my friend's post in the upstate NY thread with a BGM near term update from a lil bit ago. And this is something that you, 2001kx, psuhazelton, the two w-port guys, and north central PA above I-80 in general might be interested in.

Its fine, Potter County is a huge county, top 10 in the state in sq miles. I live in the NW part of the county, literally 2 miles from the NY boarder in a small town of Shinglehouse, PA. I'm not to worried about reaching the Warning criteria, the radar looks rather robust and the duration looks to be rather lengthy lasting into the late morning hours. I was just stating that places along the river valley to the south, specifically Emporium looks to get Smashed from the band approaching! My bet is they or the Obs out of 7 miles SE of Coudersport may be the winners of round 1 :) The elevation just to the south of me plays a big role in this setup. Places just to the SW of me sit at near 2600ft while I'm 1555ft, that extra 1000ft makes a huge difference in precip amounts here and where the main bands seem to track over. Thats super cool that Detroit was experiencing thundersnow, I have never witnessed T-snow where I live, but have in Erie, PA during a lake effect event.

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2.6" is the current storm total, with a .1" hour intensity from 11-12AM..ouch it was worse than I thought, but good news is it was snowing at a good clip and with heavier returns showing up the next couple of hours look great. Seeming how this storm has been the most interesting and most promising storm in terms of snowfall amounts, I may pull an all nighter and for those interested in amounts and history of the storm for around these parts, I will probably have detailed reports at the top of the hour. Temperature hasn't budge, not even a tenth of a degree, steady at 28.8°F.

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hopefully you guys stay out of the ZR and stay more sleet, are the roadways fairly clear or are they starting to ice over?

Roads around here are fairly decent, I haven't been outside in awhile but there's probably a glaze on the trees and cars and whatnot along with our light coating of snow from earlier. My mom said the highway from State College to around Tyrone was a lil bit tricky coming home. A messy evening but i'm takin one for the team in hopes of getting a good round 2 tomorrow night haha.

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Wow it is absolutely pouring outside!. I'm currently at 4.1" for the storm and I had 1.5" for the hourly snowfall rate from 12-1AM. This pace looks to continue for at least the next few hours according to the radar returns. I haven't seen it snow this hard for a few years now, totally enjoying this, the flakes are still relatively small. Temp has fallen slightly to 28.3°F

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Wow it is absolutely pouring outside!. I'm currently at 4.1" for the storm and I had 1.5" for the hourly snowfall rate. This pace looks to continue for at least the next few hours according to the radar returns. I haven't seen it snow this hard for a few years now, totally enjoying this, the flakes are still relatively small. Temp has fallen slightly to 28.3°F

Congrats!

It's finally snowing where it's supposed to snow. Hope you can make double digit totals tonight.

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I think the recent warmth is really telling on the boards tonight. Considering that there's a pretty good chance of some decent snow in southern PA, MD, and surrounding areas in less than 24 hours, the threads are awfully quiet tonight.

Really nice to see the NCPA snow hole getting a good hit right now...

The real snow hole lies in the Emporium, Lock Haven, Williamsport zone. I haven't heard any reports out of those areas. Judging by the returns, some of those areas have to be approaching 6" if not more

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