JamieOber Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I think the first storm will be a good hit north of 80. Widespread 4-7". Yeah, looks that way. It looks like here we will verify our WWA, the freezing rain at night could be nasty tomorrow am. Check out NWS, they went all in with the last NAM: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM is much more bullish on the second storm (at least in the central/northern part of the state) than the 12z GFS. NAM would be a significant snowfall for places north of I-80, a mix in the central regions, and a light rain to the south for the first round. Then a N/NE wind cools all areas well below freezing in the entire column allowing all areas to be snow for the second round (overnight Monday). This would be the extreme case in my opinion. QPF peaks around 2" of nearly all snow in the N/Central regions. The 12z GFS has become a decent amount cooler with the first storm. General QPF around 0.5" will allow for significant snowfall in the central regions, northwards. Some mixing to the south. The second storm would get the regions to the south that were more rain on the first storm. I think it is clear that the first storm is becoming colder. This should mean more widespread snow than is currently indicated from the first system. The key then becomes where the second storm sets up. It should be cold enough no matter what for snow in the entire region. So if its more like the NAM, everyone gets major additional accumulation with great ratios. If its more to the south like the GFS, then it will be the southern 1/3 of the area to get significant additional snowfall. I am nearly certain there will be warning criteria snow out of this somewhere in the area. Also, ice could be a concern for the first batch in the area just south of the snow. Fun one to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z has a bunch of systems in the near future too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z has a bunch of systems in the near future too. What are you think for southern counties of PA for the second round? 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Is my area just supposed to get rain for the first round? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM is much more bullish on the second storm (at least in the central/northern part of the state) than the 12z GFS. NAM would be a significant snowfall for places north of I-80, a mix in the central regions, and a light rain to the south for the first round. Then a N/NE wind cools all areas well below freezing in the entire column allowing all areas to be snow for the second round (overnight Monday). This would be the extreme case in my opinion. QPF peaks around 2" of nearly all snow in the N/Central regions. The 12z GFS has become a decent amount cooler with the first storm. General QPF around 0.5" will allow for significant snowfall in the central regions, northwards. Some mixing to the south. The second storm would get the regions to the south that were more rain on the first storm. I think it is clear that the first storm is becoming colder. This should mean more widespread snow than is currently indicated from the first system. The key then becomes where the second storm sets up. It should be cold enough no matter what for snow in the entire region. So if its more like the NAM, everyone gets major additional accumulation with great ratios. If its more to the south like the GFS, then it will be the southern 1/3 of the area to get significant additional snowfall. I am nearly certain there will be warning criteria snow out of this somewhere in the area. Also, ice could be a concern for the first batch in the area just south of the snow. Fun one to watch! This really will be an interesting one to watch evolve. I've been busy the last couple days, but was keeping an eye on it. When this began being advertised several days ago as a two pronged event, i wasn't too thrilled about the snow chances in the heart of the region. To me it just seemed like wave 1 was going to come in such a fashion where the northern tier saw some accums and maybe a mix and then the boundary dropped south to a point where the snow from the 2nd wave was buried under the turnpike. The models have since come back around with getting wave #2 into at least the southern third to half of PA. The new NAM is a downright curbstomp for everyone under I-80 with wave 2 and it pretty much would make most everyone happy with respect to seeing something decent. The NAM might be a bit bullish on its northward extent of heavier precip (wave 2), however it seems like it's putting a bit more emphasis on that wave over the 1st one so the heavier and more expansive precip shield that actually gets a bit above I-80 might be warranted. Hopefully this utopian solution of the NAM is right, but i'm worried that there could be a corridor that gets little frozen from either system and maybe a 1-3" total. And actually I would place that ribbon right on or maybe just south of I-80, (e.g State College). Something like Wave 1 gives an initial inch or two before turning over and then the heaviest snow sets up along and south of say a PIT/AOO/MDT line with #2. What happens tonight will be important with regards to what happens for the #2 storm. As you alluded to, the first storm has been trending colder. If it ends up being colder and further south, its probably going to send the brunt of the second wave a bit further south. I do like the trends though, the models had the 2nd wave pretty much squashed a day or two ago and they're getting back on board with it. Pretty unique setup overall, we usually see these two pronged things in reverse fashion with the ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 my forecast for tonight...i was suprised to see this? i havent been paying much attention to this the last 2 days. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 27. Southeast wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 my forecast for tonight...i was suprised to see this? i havent been paying much attention to this the last 2 days. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 27. Southeast wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. See the red tag posts. We have 3-5 for UNV area. Thing is, they still have the WWA with 1-3. I guess they will update it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What are you think for southern counties of PA for the second round? 2-4? 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 4-6" Wow really? I hope you are right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the new 09z SREF is pretty nice. High probs for 1+ get pretty far south with the first wave with >70% above the turnpike. The second wave gets 30-50% probs for 4"+ generally from I-80 south. CTP has taken notice in their short term update .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --BASED ON 20/03 AND 20/09 SREFS...SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS OVER ESPECIALLY CENTRAL PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the new 09z SREF is pretty nice. High probs for 1+ get pretty far south with the first wave with >70% above the turnpike. The second wave gets 30-50% probs for 4"+ generally from I-80 south. CTP has taken notice in their short term update New Euro seems colder also - is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see Winter storm warnings for the northern counties in pa. (Warren, McKean, Potter, Tioga, Cameron, etc) If we don't mix I can see northern PA picking up warning criteria snowfall with the total being around 7-10" . I wasn't to excited with the storm earlier, but definetely have become intrigued over the night, especially with the latest runs. Some models have been printing close to an 1" of QPF for the total duration of the storm, which would be fantastic if it could stay all snow and not change over to sleet. But the way the winter has gone in trends, the change over to sleet maybe inevitable and cut down our accumulations to around 3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 LOL! My favorite (being sarcastic) local news weather station, ABC27, says there will be no round 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 LOL! My favorite (being sarcastic) local news weather station, ABC27, says there will be no round 2! Isn't that the station that said under 2" doing our biggest storm of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ctp has 1-2" even for my area tonight. Radar looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Isn't that the station that said under 2" doing our biggest storm of the year? I think they didn't even say an inch...I think they were saying like .7 of an inch of snow or something! But yep, that is them! They need to be ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Eric Horst just updated, he basically says "ABC 27, You Stupid!" : After hitting a record high of 72 degrees on Friday, winter will make a brief return to the Commonwealth the next 48 hours. Two systems will traverse the region, and the outcome of both events will be very sensitive to storm track and temperatures. For the first system tonight, it's northern PA that will get hit the hardest with 3 to 6 inches of snow. Here in Lancaster, we'll likely see a few hours of mixed wet snow and sleet, before a change to plain rain before dawn Monday. A slushy coating to one inch is possible, but rain showers and rising temps should wash away most of what falls by afternoon. Temps will briefly rise into the 40s Monday, but then plummet into the 20s Monday night as the second storm tracks by to our south. This second system is more intriguing, because it has the potential to drop a very narrow band of 6-inch snowfall...but where will that band develop? Right now, it looks like northern MD could be the prime spot for snow, although a slight shift north or south is certainly possible. Initially, this storm will begin as rain towards sunset Monday, but a strong low-level push of Arctic air will lead to a change to freezing rain and soon all snow across the region. It's still too early to nail down accumulations but I can see how around 2 inches could fall just north of the Turnpike with closer to 5 inches near the Mason Dixon line. Obviously, a lot can change over the next 36 hours, and to some degree the outcome of tonight's storm will have an effect on the evolution of tomorrow night's storm. So let's not put the cart before the horse...tonight's storm presents a challenge to be focused on. More later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 why does the WWA say 1-3 for areas near I80, with 3-5 near NY border when the forecast for IPT says 3-7 tonight?Doesnt make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 why does the WWA say 1-3 for areas near I80, with 3-5 near NY border when the forecast for IPT says 3-7 tonight?Doesnt make any sense. My guess is they plan on making an upgrade to a few counties in northern Pa. By 4 or 6pm tonight, I'm betting they change some of the WAA to WSW. I can see this storm verifying very close to warning criteria. State College even says they may have to upgrade, via its near term forecast. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. CHANGES TO VERY NEAR TERM ARE FEW. MODERATE SNOW EVENT UNFOLDING FOR NORTHERN PA TONIGHT AND WILL SERIOUSLY CONSIDER UPGRADING CURRENT ADVISORIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF I-80...AND PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 6 GIVEN OVERNIGHT SREFS AND GEFS RUNS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...WITH SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 My guess is they plan on making an upgrade to a few counties in northern Pa. By 4 or 6pm tonight, I'm betting they change some of the WAA to WSW. I can see this storm verifying very close to warning criteria. State College even says they may have to upgrade, via its near term forecast. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. CHANGES TO VERY NEAR TERM ARE FEW. MODERATE SNOW EVENT UNFOLDING FOR NORTHERN PA TONIGHT AND WILL SERIOUSLY CONSIDER UPGRADING CURRENT ADVISORIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF I-80...AND PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 6 GIVEN OVERNIGHT SREFS AND GEFS RUNS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...WITH SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off makes sense to me, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 makes sense to me, thanks. no problem, with the latest trends on the models for a colder and snowier solution, I wouldn't be surprised to see your area receive 4-8" of snow. If the clown maps have their way, epecially the NAM you could be sitting very close to the bullseye for round 1. The NAM's 10:1 clown map shows a swath of close to a foot of snow for north central PA. Whether this is right or not is debatable, but it just goes to show its another scenario map that is becoming increasingly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the NWS updated 3-6 here WSW to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Winter Weather Advisories have just been issued for my area even! I thought the first wave for my area was supposed to be mainly rain? State College now says 1-3 inches of snow and .1 of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 why does the WWA say 1-3 for areas near I80, with 3-5 near NY border when the forecast for IPT says 3-7 tonight?Doesnt make any sense. My guess is they plan on making an upgrade to a few counties in northern Pa. By 4 or 6pm tonight, I'm betting they change some of the WAA to WSW. I can see this storm verifying very close to warning criteria. State College even says they may have to upgrade, via its near term forecast. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. CHANGES TO VERY NEAR TERM ARE FEW. MODERATE SNOW EVENT UNFOLDING FOR NORTHERN PA TONIGHT AND WILL SERIOUSLY CONSIDER UPGRADING CURRENT ADVISORIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF I-80...AND PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 6 GIVEN OVERNIGHT SREFS AND GEFS RUNS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...WITH SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off That's what they just did. And updated our WWA to reflect the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hey guys. Im supposed to be leaving central mass Tuesday morning to visit penn state on Wednesday. What do you expect there and will it be over by Tues. aft? what can we expect going west on 84 mid-day/early afternoon on Tuesday? Looks like most of it will be just to the south correct? Part of me wants to go on Monday to experience the snowstorm, looks like it will miss me to to the south besides 1-3" tommorow morning from round 1. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New Euro seems colder also - is that correct? It sure looks that way, just had a look at the full euro. I haven't had a chance to look in depth at the euro the last day or so, but at any rate the 850 and 925 lines basically run through the middle of PA. Def the look of a high thickness snowfall (thickness >540dm) looking more likely in the area I was worried about maybe being in between events with regards to best snows. The Euro's probably mainly snow above route 22 in central PA with the first wave, however it buries the second wave underneath the mason-dixon line. Just looking at the new 18z NAM and it seems to be further north with the all snow, roughly in the warning region in the northern tier. And then drills the central counties with #2 again. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It sure looks that way, just had a look at the full euro. I haven't had a chance to look in depth at the euro the last day or so, but at any rate the 850 and 925 lines basically run through the middle of PA. Def the look of a high thickness snowfall (thickness >540dm) looking more likely in the area I was worried about maybe being in between events with regards to best snows. The Euro's probably mainly snow above route 22 in central PA with the first wave, however it buries the second wave underneath the mason-dixon line. Just looking at the new 18z NAM and it seems to be further north with the all snow, roughly in the warning region in the northern tier. And then drills the central counties with #2 again. Very interesting. How are things lining up based on radar, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 How are things lining up based on radar, etc? radar doesnt look good to me but i have no clue as to how things are going to evolve. what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 radar doesnt look good to me but i have no clue as to how things are going to evolve. what do you think? Looking at the simulated NAM radar, it appears it is supposed to look like this and get better later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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