LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Great map! Thanks LEK. I will miss this one by a few days. Going up Feb. 11 - 14. Snow pack should look good though. When I left last Thursday, we were up to about 30", and I think they have had 8-10" since I left plus this LES coming. More like February standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Great map! Thanks LEK. I will miss this one by a few days. Going up Feb. 11 - 14. Snow pack should look good though. When I left last Thursday, we were up to about 30", and I think they have had 8-10" since I left plus this LES coming. More like February standards. Thanks! The bulk for the Tug will come tomorrow night through Thursday night. As long as the airmass isn't substantially drier than what is progged, I think the shortwave sagging south tomorrw afternoon/night may ignite some of our heaviest rates of the season up that way! Should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Some oc the worst driving conditions of the winter this eve...blowing snow...looks to be about 5 or 6" in the driveway and not even an advisory out of BGM. Interesting. BUF has had advisories in oswego cty right over the border from me which were more than appropriate. I think the s/w that just passed by caught BGM a bit off guard, wrt the repositioning of the band this afternoon.....it had essentially had cleared the N. Onondaga C. border with nothing but a coating to an inch through much of the afternoon....then the band broke up and quickly reorginized about 15 miles further south....hence advisory "non-call" bust......they have one now though!! LES and it's micro scale forecasting details are still incredibly humbling to a forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Agree on hard to predict...if nws allowed local offices to subdivide areas more it would probably help local offices deal with this type of insanity. It was godawful up on the lake today...wind snow and blowing snow. It was pretty nasty during the last half of the afternoon up on SU hill....band just to the north (but snow was still moderate) and 25mph winds with a temp about 14 made for a nasty 1/5 mile walk to the car (in a parking garage, though ) BTW, just eclipsed the 150" mark for the season! Been a weird way to get this much snow, and with no thaw, it looks every bit like we've been plastered with big snows.....but not the case....a dozen or so 1-6" events on top of our Dec. version of "snowmaggeden" gives us a snow depth that should have some staying power.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 By far - and this isn't even close - this has been the roughest winter I've experienced. Call me a puss bag but this blows away 02-03 when I lived near Albany and 95-96 down in CT. The big difference maker is the lack of any real thaw. Its of course easier to get thaws into southern new england, but even in 02/03 we had at least a couple/few warm-ups, though brief. I think being on the lake during working hrs makes it seem worse to me. Its either snowing at my house or at work, or in between, almost every freaking day. Plus the wind up on Lake Ontario, walking to/from the car, is brutal. It was a special kind of hell tonight making the walk - made worse by the venturi effect as the wind whips around the cooling tower right off the lake w/ snow and ice pellets ripping your face off. Frankly, I'm about ready for spring. I suspect we are going to have a more robust later Feb and March period this year, snowfall-wise, as the last two March's have been utterly devoid of snow here. Of course, this pattern is due to break so maybe not. However, reversion to mean for March makes me think we have some 'catching up' to do, esp. when combined w/ meager synoptic snowfall thusfar. We'll see. I measured 28" snowdepth IMBY today...which is remarkable for its consistency since early december, of at least 12-18". I thought today was one of the first days where I actually felt like it WAS winter. Sure, there has been snow about every other day, but there has been very little wind--at least IMBY--about 4 miles from the Lake. And while we have have a few sub-zero mornings, most days have been in the 20's. The ice on the lakes isnt even that impressive as they've been insulated with a foot of snow. Usually all that snow blows into the woods, but not this year. It seems I've been clearing the driveway constantly, but mostly with nuisance snows. No blockbusters or "holy crap it's snowing hard" storms. All in all, its been boring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I like and agree with your map LEK. It looks good..Like you have, there could even be some lollypop 36+ in a few spots...As for the event...I like the idea of being in the bulls eye for once , it took half the winter but the Tug is finally getting a strong LES event. The band will set up shop over Lewis and Oswego counties tomorrow. It looks to weaken for a short period tomorrow before an arctic front pulls through...that should set the LES band off in earnest. BUFKIT is showing some shear...however, because the air will be so cold 18/20C H85 the band should have no problem overcoming it. We should see snowfall rates of 3-4 inches an hour maybe a tad more at times. By Wednesday Night the tug should see 12+ inches. with more following Thursday...as the band drifts a little more north..and finely starts to die Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 A bit off topic for this thread, but I caught a birds-eye view of the northern end of Lake Erie today flying out of BUF. Except for a couple narrow runs along the Canadian shoreline, the northern end of the lake is wall to wall ice. I always find it impressive to see such a hugh expanse of snow-covered ice in my "backyard" when the lake completely freezes over - our own little piece of the arctic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 A bit off topic for this thread, but I caught a birds-eye view of the northern end of Lake Erie today flying out of BUF. Except for a couple narrow runs along the Canadian shoreline, the northern end of the lake is wall to wall ice. I always find it impressive to see such a hugh expanse of snow-covered ice in my "backyard" when the lake completely freezes over - our own little piece of the arctic.... lake breeze during spring season ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Based on some upstream analysis, ongoing LES off UGL's, and some of the overnight meso modeling, I'm feeling quite confident in a significant fall of snow, however, the target area looks to be a bit further south than my original map (by 15 miles or so). We will see some tremendous snowfall rates, IMO, tonight/tomorrow morning for parts of Oswego, Lewis, and N. Oneida Cos. (maybe extreme S. Jefferson Co......not sure though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That would be right over my house George!!! Whoohoo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 That would be right over my house George!!! Whoohoo!!! I'm liking the Oswego to Camden, North to Barnes Corners back to Adams Center as the high risk spot for the band to reside the longest.....Pretty big area but there will be several subtle shifts in the band a dozen or so miles in either direction. All the while the Tug just snows with the band and orographically driven. Buf's 12z meso's were targeting S. Oswego Co.....but I'm not going to bite on that. As stated many times before, southward moving bands seem to ALWAYS be erroneously modeled too quick with their motion over land. If the band has already formed before it reaches the southern shore, it will reside in N/C Oswego Co. If not, then there is a chance the frictional convergence zone would override the major axis convergence, thus creating an E/W oriented band along the lakeshore, which would target SW Oswego Co and points eastward. But I'm pretty sure a band will be ongoing strongly and whatever shoreline band tries to form, will be overtaken and absorbed by the center lake band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That would bring that bullseye down my way Hate to miss this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I like and agree with your map LEK. It looks good..Like you have, there could even be some lollypop 36+ in a few spots...As for the event...I like the idea of being in the bulls eye for once , it took half the winter but the Tug is finally getting a strong LES event. The band will set up shop over Lewis and Oswego counties tomorrow. It looks to weaken for a short period tomorrow before an arctic front pulls through...that should set the LES band off in earnest. BUFKIT is showing some shear...however, because the air will be so cold 18/20C H85 the band should have no problem overcoming it. We should see snowfall rates of 3-4 inches an hour maybe a tad more at times. By Wednesday Night the tug should see 12+ inches. with more following Thursday...as the band drifts a little more north..and finely starts to die Fri. Oh Geeze... j/k ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Buf's 12z meso's were targeting S. Oswego Co.....but I'm not going to bite on that. As stated many times before, southward moving bands seem to ALWAYS be erroneously modeled too quick with their motion over land. If the band has already formed before it reaches the southern shore, it will reside in N/C Oswego Co. If not, then there is a chance the frictional convergence zone would override the major axis convergence, thus creating an E/W oriented band along the lakeshore, which would target SW Oswego Co and points eastward. But I'm pretty sure a band will be ongoing strongly and whatever shoreline band tries to form, will be overtaken and absorbed by the center lake band. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 631 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WINDS WILL VEER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THIS EVENING THEN SETTLE INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND OUR OWN WORKSTATION WRF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SINKING THE BAND SOUTH...TAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO EXTREME SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE CANADIAN GEM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH AND KEEPS THE BAND CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SUNY STONY BROOK MM5 IS A COMPROMISE AND TAKES THE BAND INTO CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT ONCE THE BAND STARTS MOVING...IT TYPICALLY MIGRATES FARTHER AND FASTER THAN FORECAST BY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE FAVORED THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD DRIFT IN THE NAM/WRF SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL TAKE THE BAND ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING ITS SOUTHERN-MOST POINT BY AROUND 12Z WHEN IT SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM FAIR HAVEN TO FULTON AND CENTRAL SQUARE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL CARRY THE BAND BACK NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND TO THE TUG HILL BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TUG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON... Getch ya' tickets here! Good seats still available! J/k... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ain't she purdy!!! http://www.9wsyr.com/content/weather/livedoppler9.aspx Amazing to see her muscle up as she gets the full fetch of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Snow is coming down fairly hard...I would say the rate is 2-3 inches an hour....visibility is less than 1/8 of a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 631 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WINDS WILL VEER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THIS EVENING THEN SETTLE INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND OUR OWN WORKSTATION WRF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SINKING THE BAND SOUTH...TAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO EXTREME SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE CANADIAN GEM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH AND KEEPS THE BAND CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SUNY STONY BROOK MM5 IS A COMPROMISE AND TAKES THE BAND INTO CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. XXXX PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT ONCE THE BAND STARTS MOVING...IT TYPICALLY MIGRATES FARTHER AND FASTER THAN FORECAST BY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE FAVORED THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD DRIFT IN THE NAM/WRF SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL TAKE THE BAND ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING ITS SOUTHERN-MOST POINT BY AROUND 12Z WHEN IT SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM FAIR HAVEN TO FULTON AND CENTRAL SQUARE. XXXX DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL CARRY THE BAND BACK NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND TO THE TUG HILL BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TUG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON... Getch ya' tickets here! Good seats still available! J/k... Oh god... Im suppose to make 2 differents trips to Fulton tomorrow via semi-truck, like mid morning and early afternoon... Not cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 631 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WINDS WILL VEER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THIS EVENING THEN SETTLE INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND OUR OWN WORKSTATION WRF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SINKING THE BAND SOUTH...TAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO EXTREME SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE CANADIAN GEM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH AND KEEPS THE BAND CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SUNY STONY BROOK MM5 IS A COMPROMISE AND TAKES THE BAND INTO CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT ONCE THE BAND STARTS MOVING...IT TYPICALLY MIGRATES FARTHER AND FASTER THAN FORECAST BY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE FAVORED THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD DRIFT IN THE NAM/WRF SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL TAKE THE BAND ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING ITS SOUTHERN-MOST POINT BY AROUND 12Z WHEN IT SHOULD BE RUNNING FROM FAIR HAVEN TO FULTON AND CENTRAL SQUARE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL CARRY THE BAND BACK NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND TO THE TUG HILL BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TUG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON... Getch ya' tickets here! Good seats still available! J/k... LOL! I think we MAY end up with a slightly larger windshift than earlier progged. But I still contend than with windshifts of less than 20 degrees, we generally see a band reorient slowly over the land, whereas the models tend to propogate it a bit quicker....With the larger windshift, we may see the band snap in two with a new (more NW'erly oriented band) go into S. Oswego County, and leave the eastern part of the original band to get carried inland. Neat stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hopefully it makes it down to my neck of the woods here in Hannibal. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hopefully it makes it down to my neck of the woods here in Hannibal. Bring it on. If you guys get anything close to what the WRF meso's have been showing, I think the speckling of roof collapses that have occurred over the last few days will become a full blown emergency......I hope not, but without a thaw, and the copious accumulated qpf generated over the last 2 months sitting on unattended structures will pose some serious concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Just awesome: I'd be cursing the Lake Erie icepack if I was still living in Orchard Park tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I already know several people who have lost pole barns or some kind of garage or shed because of too much snow on them. If this area did end up with another couple feet it would not be good. I just have that feeling i'm gonna wake up in the morning with alot of white gold. Running out of room to put the snow around the house now and the snowblower would like a break lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Its starting............. Now off to bed and dreams of 1000 trillion snowflakes dancing in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snagger Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Its starting............. Now off to bed and dreams of 1000 trillion snowflakes dancing in my head. It has arrived here, about time... we have been cheated all winter long in north central Oswego County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Heavy snow come down in a mostly frozen Lake Erie. Pretty unique moment happening right now. Here is the radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BUF&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BUF&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.220&noclutter=0&t=1291642738&lat=42.97127914&lon=-78.79428101&label=Eggertsville%2C+NY&showstorms=99&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=481¢ery=294&transx=81&transy=54&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 sick looking band up there brings back some good memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snagger Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 sick looking band up there brings back some good memories Just measured 1 1/4 inches in 15 minutes. measured again ... 4 inches in 50 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 KBGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It has arrived here, about time... we have been cheated all winter long in north central Oswego County. Welcome aboard. Are you the same snagger from MFF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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