TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hey fellow Michigan posters, how warm do you guys think we'll get in Michigan next week? It will be sad to see my 2 feet of snow start to disappear. "Melting season" is my least favorite time of the year. I wish I could just sleep through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I probably won't lose all the snow here where I live. It would have to really warm up for many weeks for that to happen. We usually get a good snowstorm in March and sometimes April. But the snow went quick last year and by mid March it was completed gone. I can remember that because my whole sewer line clear to the street from my house failed and I had to get replaced. If we had a normal year I would of been out of luck at least until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It might take awhile but not many weeks. Not saying it will happen but 2 feet of snow can say goodbye much faster than one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Last year was amazingly warm in March and April. Our snow was about all gone by March 10. The two feet of snow we have on the ground has A LOT of water in it (Pretty much packed down from the 60 inches we got in January and the storm we got last week). Barring that we don't get any of those ridiculous big storms that go west of us, i think we should have a snow pack for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Oh, and I actually read that Muskegon has the deepest snow pack of anywhere else in the state, except for one location in the U.P. Pretty cool for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I live near GR and our annual ski trip is planned for Feb 22 - 26 at Boyne Highlands. The latest GFS shows 1.2 inches of rain for my area on the 24th. I love spring skiing but I don't want it to rain on us. On the other hand I would love it to rain in GR to wash away the snow quickly if it is going to warm up. That blizzard was a blast but I'm ready to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Our "snowpack season" will be winding down soon anyway. By the end of February, the sun is strong enough to melt the snowpack even if the temp is below freezing. So, with the big warmup next week occuring after mid February it isn't as devastating as it would have been if it was in December or January. I would say the period from Thanksgiving until the end of February is really the time for building a snowpack. Once March 1st hits, it's back to looking for storminess to make things interesting and not just keeping snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It might take awhile but not many weeks. Not saying it will happen but 2 feet of snow can say goodbye much faster than one would think. Kinda what happened here back in 08-09. First in late Dec and then again ( after it had built back up to around 2feet ) in early Feb. The only difference i suppose is this might have a little more staying power because it has about a 6 inch glacier on the bottom of the 12-14 or so inches covering the ground here. Did not have that to help in 08-09. Guess we will see but nothing would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 If the 18z gfs is correct, we will not lose all our snow. There is a lot of snowcover with a lot of water in it. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 If the 18z gfs is correct, we will not lose all our snow. There is a lot of snowcover with a lot of water in it. We will see. If you went strictly by the GFS that would be true...but a few considerations to remember is that in this type of setup when you have a strong system (over 18C air near STL) feeding into the WAA pattern the GFS tends to under-forecast SFC temps by 5-10F due to it's parametrization which uses a climate average (don't remember exactly from the degree but believe it uses a 50 year average). In early/late seasonal situations or transitional situations this is especially true. Also if we have a few mostly sunny days with the higher sun angles the long-wave delta K radiation will increase the sublimation process to help degrade the snow-pack depth. Model data does show over 90 percent RH centered around 850mb (typical stratus deck as expected), however the RH drops off the charts quickly as you ascend to less than 60 percent with a good wind field suggesting turbulent mixing will erode into that stratus layer as the day wears on. If this does occur southern Michigan could approach 60 degrees, but for now a conservative 50 degrees looks about right especially at this range. Compared to how it has been it might be time to break out the golf clubs for a day or two................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 If you went strictly by the GFS that would be true...but a few considerations to remember is that in this type of setup when you have a strong system (over 18C air near STL) feeding into the WAA pattern the GFS tends to under-forecast SFC temps by 5-10F due to it's parametrization which uses a climate average (don't remember exactly from the degree but believe it uses a 50 year average). In early/late seasonal situations or transitional situations this is especially true. Also if we have a few mostly sunny days with the higher sun angles the long-wave delta K radiation will increase the sublimation process to help degrade the snow-pack depth. Model data does show over 90 percent RH centered around 850mb (typical stratus deck as expected), however the RH drops off the charts quickly as you ascend to less than 60 percent with a good wind field suggesting turbulent mixing will erode into that stratus layer as the day wears on. If this does occur southern Michigan could approach 60 degrees, but for now a conservative 50 degrees looks about right especially at this range. Compared to how it has been it might be time to break out the golf clubs for a day or two................ I dont know about that. Depending how the thaw goes, most golf courses will still either have soggy slushy snow left or be covered in water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I dont know about that. Depending how the thaw goes, most golf courses will still either have soggy slushy snow left or be covered in water. at least you can hit up the outdoor driving ranges. Just stay on the mats or you guys will be hacking it up spraying mud all over yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Haven't looked at the models in days but if its as bad as it looked later next week still the snowpack will be torched for many especially the south facing areas that burn out fastest.. Its prob gonna be a situation where across the street facing north will hang on to a good 6"+ of glacier while my side of the block is burned down to grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Haven't looked at the models in days but if its as bad as it looked later next week still the snowpack will be torched for many especially the south facing areas that burn out fastest.. Its prob gonna be a situation where across the street facing north will hang on to a good 6"+ of glacier while my side of the block is burned down to grass. Yep, its that time of year ugh. 6" in the shade, 0 in the sun = 3" snowpack for official purposes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Well it is 36 now suppose to go up two more degrees. But luckily it is cloudy. I should of got that 4 feet of snow off the front deck yesterday, because it was nothing but gum. I did get it off, but had to keep beating the shovel on the side of the deck to get the rest of the snow off the shovel. I will have to keep my father from parking his salt laden truck in the driveway. I am going to have a heck of a time when the mat gets mushy. I will be glad when summer comes so I can get it concreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Well it is 36 now suppose to go up two more degrees. But luckily it is cloudy. I should of got that 4 feet of snow off the front deck yesterday, because it was nothing but gum. I did get it off, but had to keep beating the shovel on the side of the deck to get the rest of the snow off the shovel. I will have to keep my father from parking his salt laden truck in the driveway. I am going to have a heck of a time when the mat gets mushy. I will be glad when summer comes so I can get it concreted. Max at metro was 42 at 1645.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Well as expected my side of the road took a big hit while the north side came out pretty good.. Winds still ripping and temps above freezing all night and tomorrow so the assault goes on. Today's melt was much worse than I thought it would be.. should have known better with a ripping sw wind forecasted that would lead to eating the snow up with the clear sky that I was hoping yesterday would be more like party sunny or even better in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Well as expected my side of the road took a big hit while the north side came out pretty good.. Winds still ripping and temps above freezing all night and tomorrow so the assault goes on. Today's melt was much worse than I thought it would be.. should have known better with a ripping sw wind forecasted that would lead to eating the snow up with the clear sky that I was hoping yesterday would be more like party sunny or even better in the afternoon. The mat on the streets are getting soft here. The road grader probably will do his deed putting big chunks of snow in my driveway when he comes by at 3 am. He never comes around all weekends. He waits for the day everyone has to go back to work. So I will have to be out there to clean up the mess before I can go to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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