A-L-E-X Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Yeah I think we should see an overrunning event early next week and then drop deeper into the chill as the -EPO/-NAO pattern becomes more dominant. DT has discouraged some people because he thinks its basically winter over for everyone south of New England and no -NAO returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Hey I thought you loved the hot summer I like to see records broken and the garden grow quickly, but I'm personally not a fan of the humidity that accompanies a hot NY summer. DT has discouraged some people because he thinks its basically winter over for everyone south of New England and no -NAO returning. The 0z ECM wasn't too encouraging, but not terrible either...there's an overrunning event next weekend after the torch ends, gives 1-2" snow from PHL to Central NJ but doesn't get this far north, subject to change of course. After that we have a SWFE at Day 9/10, 1-2" of snow for NYC metro changing to rain. Canada is very cold in the long range with a solid -EPO, but the Atlantic side is a disaster with absolutely no blocking showing up. Looks to be a mediocre pattern with some arctic shots but not a ton of snow due to the storm track being farther west. I still think we'll get a decent coastal in early March, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 How much you got so far? 1-2 inches. We've had this snow cover straight through from 12/26/2010 Is it 50 straight days yet? Very variable. Most very sun exposed areas are bare/mostly bare, but shaded spots have quite a bit of snow still remaining. My backyard is still completely ice and snowpacked, but my front yard which is exposed to the sun is mostly bare. My backyard has probably had 12"+ snow/ice since 12/26. Not sure if I've ever had this before, and it's so thick now it will probably take a literal blowtorch to get rid of it. It's solid ice, from 12/26 and whatever has melted/refrozen into it from after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Very variable. Most very sun exposed areas are bare/mostly bare, but shaded spots have quite a bit of snow still remaining. My backyard is still completely ice and snowpacked, but my front yard which is exposed to the sun is mostly bare. My backyard has probably had 12"+ snow/ice since 12/26. Not sure if I've ever had this before, and it's so thick now it will probably take a literal blowtorch to get rid of it. It's solid ice, from 12/26 and whatever has melted/refrozen into it from after. It's pretty variable up here as well...south-facing slopes on busier streets have almost no snow cover, whereas my front lawn is probably around 7-8", with north-facing areas in the nature preserve at 400' elevation having like 10-12" left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I like to see records broken and the garden grow quickly, but I'm personally not a fan of the humidity that accompanies a hot NY summer. The 0z ECM wasn't too encouraging, but not terrible either...there's an overrunning event next weekend after the torch ends, gives 1-2" snow from PHL to Central NJ but doesn't get this far north, subject to change of course. After that we have a SWFE at Day 9/10, 1-2" of snow for NYC metro changing to rain. Canada is very cold in the long range with a solid -EPO, but the Atlantic side is a disaster with absolutely no blocking showing up. Looks to be a mediocre pattern with some arctic shots but not a ton of snow due to the storm track being farther west. I still think we'll get a decent coastal in early March, however. You know that sounds a lot like what happened between Mid Feb 2009 and early Mar. We went from very cold to a big time thaw and temps in the upper 60s back down to cold towards the end of February and two snowfall events (the first one gets forgotten because we had a second one, which was bigger, on Mar 1.) That was our first coastal since Feb 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 DT has discouraged some people because he thinks its basically winter over for everyone south of New England and no -NAO returning. I don't think we're done yet by a long shot. We'll torch for the next 7 days but thereafter the cold air looks like it wants to invade again to an extent and with a couple of well timed shortwaves and favorable NAO, we could have another nice event or two. I'm banking on the last minute Feb/March winter resurgence we've seen in the last few stronger Ninas, as well as the general -NAO regime we've enjoyed the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Not sure why OKX is going so high with temps for Wed- Thu. The big trough over eastern Canada Wed is trending slower. Also the ridge axis being so far into the Midwest Wed-Thu ensures the warmest air is going to be directed there, while lingering low heights over E Canada and low-level moisture will prevent it from getting too warm in the NYC area. I'm going with highs in the mid 40s for Wed and low 50s for Thu for NYC, but the real warm air doesn't get here until just ahead of the front, by Fri and perhaps into early Sat, depending on frontal passage timing. I think Fri could get well into 60s. High was 37.5F here with no melting, but we know the snow cover is doomed at this point. NWS has a high of 61F here Friday. Currently 28.2/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 temps are good 5 degrees higher than forecasted today. Look like we are benefiting from good mixing and some downsloping. I'm up to 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 temps are good 5 degrees higher than forecasted today. Look like we are benefiting from good mixing and some downsloping. I'm up to 34 degrees. weird temps today. winding up a solid 2-4F below guidance up here, although some stations in the NYC region are above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 weird temps today. winding up a solid 2-4F below guidance up here, although some stations in the NYC region are above. interesting.. I didn't look at guidance numbers. I was looking at the NWS zone forecast by me. They forecasted upper 20's by me. I don't know if they went against guidance today or took guidance numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I remember MOS had 31F for Danbury and 34F for NYC. didn't really look much at surrounding areas, but it sounded like most outlets were going AOB guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 My car thermo has been reading 40 since 1pm...and it's really not that cold when you walk outside. No big deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The wind in the city is a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 27F and windy. A far cry from yesterdays nice temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You don't see a 37 degree temperature with such a low dewpoint very often around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Currently 33.6F here...NW winds have been howling today, although the sun is warm and bright. Gorgeous February day with snow still on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You don't see a 37 degree temperature with such a low dewpoint very often around here. Desert like air mass just infused with some northeastern winter flare, lol. That really is super dry for this area. NW flow big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 yesterday my high was 59......today it was 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 35/3 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 lol@ 35 degrees and 17% humidity and -6F dew point, its going to all drop like a rock tonight! Jay your dewpoint is 3? That sounds humid compared to the -6 I've got going on here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 You don't see a 37 degree temperature with such a low dewpoint very often around here. This would be an awesome time to start a camp fire By the way what was the RH in the city? It was 17% here so Im guessing even lower at JFK when it was 37 F with -6 F DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winds look like their gonna be worse then today/yest on sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winds look like their gonna be worse then today/yest on sat They were really blowing last night. Just when I can get to my christmas decorartions they wind up blowing all over the place. I havd to look at Saturday's setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Winds look like their gonna be worse then today/yest on sat High Wind Warnings possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mtnclimber Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 By that standard alone, this year has been so historic. I can't think of a year in the last 10 where taking down Christmas decorations was delayed by more than a few days; it's been seven weeks! They were really blowing last night. Just when I can get to my christmas decorartions they wind up blowing all over the place. I havd to look at Saturday's setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 High Wind Warnings possible? No clue, upton already mentioning it as next headline though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 tonight could be a night where temps drop like a rock initially, only to hold steady or slowly rise after midnight. 25/-2 at DXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The effect of snowpack keeping things cooler very evident today...NWS Office at Upton saw a high of 30.9 F - they have around a half foot of snow on the ground....while at Kennedy Airport, the temperature shot all the way up to 38 F...the ground is bare there...both stations are close to sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Accuweather has 68 mph gusts on Saturday though only my town for whatever reason No clue, upton already mentioning it as next headline though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Accuweather has 68 mph gusts on Saturday though only my town for whatever reason They had me at 54 last night and was pretty close. Well see but I'm pretty sure this one will be a bigger event then last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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