Quincy Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 although it's cold out there, high temps made it to at least 28F at Danbury. MOS has been consistently too low with highs on these "cold" days for the past few weeks. MOS kept spitting out 22-25F and even though I tacked on a couple of degrees to guidance, will likely still be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 WRF-ARW high temperatures for tomorrow..that's mighty chilly...it's been running a bit cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Looking at the long range progs, it may be very difficult for Central Park to break their all time snowiest year record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Anyone else think the forecast highs for Sun are way too low? With SW flow and nice mixing ahead of the clipper, I think mid-upper 40s are likely for NYC and coastal areas, and 50 is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 DGEX says we're trekking towards 60 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 DGEX says we're trekking towards 60 next week. Good thing its a God Awful model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Good thing its a God Awful model Surprisingly enough it was dead on this summer with almost every heat wave. The 6z run is even warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 WRF-ARW high temperatures for tomorrow..that's mighty chilly...it's been running a bit cold. Yeah not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Good thing its a God Awful model I wouldn't be surprised to see some 60F readings at the usual warm spots like EWR before the frontal passage if we get strong SW winds and sun breaking out....the models show a pretty big cutter tracking through the Plains, so we're going to be in a very powerful warm sector with the cold air from the polar vortex retreating into Northern Canada. Westchester will probably be in the mid 50s one day with another day around 50F. The x-factor will be if the winds are more southerly than progged, which will bring in cold air from the frigid ocean....SSTs are pretty chilly now that it's mid February and we've had significantly below normal temperatures since Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Anyway, it's been cold in Westchester again the last two days...winter marches on and the bit of standing water on ponds has refrozen with the snowpack taking on that glossy, icy look again. Yesterday had a high of 28.6F after a low of 18.5F, yet another sub-freezing day in a winter that has featured more sub-freezing days than I ever remember in NYC metro. We had strong cold air advection throughout the day which allowed for a mix of sun and clouds, preventing the sun angle from warming us up too much earlier in the day. It's currently 34.9/15 after a chilly morning low temperature of 14.9F, very cold for mid-February. Temperatures rose a bit more than expected today; you can tell it's late in the winter with cold air advection dying quickly and sunny days coming in warmer than forecasted due to the increasing sun angle. There's a certain mildness to the air lately, even when temperatures are in the mid 30s, as I'm starting to become aware of the sun's warmth again. It's a nice feeling but certainly a melancholy one, knowing the best of winter is probably behind us for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i'm going to go out on a limb and say some places will hit 65-70 late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i'm going to go out on a limb and say some places will hit 65-70 late next week. 70 is highly unlikely. Were going to need 850's way above 10 to get to 70. I think many places touch 60 maybe 1 or 2 low 60's but 70 is a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 70 is highly unlikely. Were going to need 850's way above 10 to get to 70. I think many places touch 60 maybe 1 or 2 low 60's but 70 is a stretch Looking forward to this...it has been a long time without a real warmup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 70 is highly unlikely. Were going to need 850's way above 10 to get to 70. I think many places touch 60 maybe 1 or 2 low 60's but 70 is a stretch i've noticed +10 h85 temps were a good benchmark for 70 degree readings last spring with a southwest wind. DC-PHL is more likely to reach it but I could see places like EWR making a run for it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 once the snowpack is gone, it will be off to the races temp wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 once the snowpack is gone, it will be off to the races temp wise... By the time the warm up erases the snow pack completely it will be back to winter and highs below 40 and lows in the 20's. That snow pack is a very hard crust in many areas - not that easy to melt - need at least 4 or 5 days above 50 with lows above freezing to get manily bare ground because no rain is in the forecast this is for areas outside the metro cities ............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 SXUS71 KOKX 111724 RERISP RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1222 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2011 ...RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY A RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 9 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY AT 6:51 AM THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 11 DEGREES SET IN 2008. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 SXUS71 KOKX 111724 RERISP RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1222 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2011 ...RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY A RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 9 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY AT 6:51 AM THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 11 DEGREES SET IN 2008. $$ A record low of +9 on February 11 isn't particularly impressive for this part of the country, but in fairness, the Islip climate record is quite short. Also, Westhampton fell to +2 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 A record low of +9 on February 11 isn't particularly impressive for this part of the country, but in fairness, the Islip climate record is quite short. Also, Westhampton fell to +2 this morning. record low at HPN for today is -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 record low at HPN for today is -10 Even KNYC has a sub-zero record low for today (-2)...though it was achieved in the 19th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 24.1 after a high of 39 here. As long as we have these nights well below freezing, at least in suburbia, it's going to be hard to melt much of the snow. Especially considering high temps will be about normal through Tuesday. The big melt period potential is really Wednesday-Saturday when lows will probably remain above 32 even outside of NYC. Maybe we'll make it to the 47-48 record of friday the 18th. It's a stretch, but I wouldn't completely write it off. We'll probably make it to Wednesday, but if Thurs/Fri torch to 60F with full sun, that snowpack will be exterminated rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 GFS in the long range looks much better than previous runs. A -NAO and blocking comes back towards next weekend and beyond on the GFS. Also, it looks like a -EPO develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 based on some research I did back in college, an 850 temp of +10C in the Danbury area yielded an approximate high temperature of 63F in February. That could easily translate to 70F further south, given a SW flow and a good deal of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Windy with flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Getting a light snow shower right now which has sent temps from 38 back down to 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Windy with flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 have had flurries for the past 15 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Snowing harder now. Good to see flakes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 i'm going to go out on a limb and say some places will hit 65-70 late next week. TWC has high temp of 46F next Thurs and Fri. I think somewhere in between is what will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Light snow right now in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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