DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 If that holds folks down here like me and Eyewall are in business. Y'all come on down to Faynam, where we clear the overpasses with tanks! My kind of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow...every GFS ensemble mbr gives >.25" QPF across far N GA while the operational (top left panel) shows <.10". Nice. Was looking pretty grim last night and now it's suddenly going the other way. Hopefully for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It will be interesting to see what NWS P.City does. Will it be a WSW, WWA, or special weather statement? Afternoon package will tell. I would have to bet on the special being the choice based on past events. I would go with WSW basically south ATL metro all the way North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 btw, euro showing between 0.25 and 0.50 on the nc coast. The 0.50 contour is right on the coast so probably around 0.35 most areas in eastern nc? Eastern NC is going to have some BL issues this run, same as last but QPF has increased 4-5 fold. Surface temps never go below 0C, and 850's make a run for above freezing, maxing out at -0.5C before the heavier precip moves in. HAT is just under 1/2", with changeover there around 12z Thurs and maybe 2/10" as SN, ILM may also see a changeover around that time with likely under 1/10" as SN. FAY looks like all SN with 0.25", but as mentioned, surface temps are an issues, which would cut down on accum, likely as 32 and SN under anything heavy, going to 33-34 in lighter stuff. RDU is 0.12" all SN but again, surface temp issues. RWI is 0.20" likely all SN and PGV is 0.29" all SN. Only concern is surface temps with none of these stations below freezing for the event, at-least per the Euro at 6hr steps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 WSI RPM model shows 2-3" over all of north GA from ATL north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I feel like we are starting to trend back to some earlier solutions made by the medium range models with the short term models (RPM, RGEM) picking up on wetter solutions especially west of Atlanta. Very interesting that we've seen this pattern happen a few times this winter where the models will lose a storm only to bring it back. Lots left to work out though for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 sounds like the Euro qpf is a lot like the NAM (with regards to central/eastern NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It will be interesting to see what NWS P.City does. Will it be a WSW, WWA, or special weather statement? Afternoon package will tell. I would have to bet on the special being the choice based on past events. I would go with WSW basically south ATL metro all the way North Because the GFS is skimpy, I bet they hold off on any advisories/warnings. Also, will they continue the weaselly wording of "snow OR rain OR sleet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Because the GFS is skimpy, I bet they hold off on any advisories/warnings. Also, will they continue the weaselly wording of "snow OR rain OR sleet." Good one. Although we do want a later start as surface/near surface temps might be an issue briefly at the start. So I guess they could technically be right as there might be a brief period of rain/sleetf/snow to start but evaporational cooling would quickly change it over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 sounds like the Euro qpf is a lot like the NAM (with regards to central/eastern NC). 0.12" for RDU 0.06 for GSO 0.11" for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Because the GFS is skimpy, I bet they hold off on any advisories/warnings. Also, will they continue the weaselly wording of "snow OR rain OR sleet." Exactly Cheez! They need to get some or get a pair of ... well you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Because the GFS is skimpy, I bet they hold off on any advisories/warnings. Also, will they continue the weaselly wording of "snow OR rain OR sleet." LOL!!!! Weaselly is the word! They ride the fence on so many events it's just pitiful. I'd be much more OK with them being wrong than not "being" at all. C'mon man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Note quite... I'm implying that while we didn't see the more extreme solution that the RUC had, the models are still trending towards the RUC because even after being less amplified in verification, its still was more amplified than any of the model guidance. If anything, this just reminds me of the February 12th, 2010 event last year. The setup is pretty different, but pretty much all the guidance lost the storm (The GFS infamously sent the low to Cuba). However, the last 24 hours saw a major trend northward with the system and also revealed an inverted trough that ended up producing much of the snow that occurred on the north end of the storm, despite the 850mb low being much further south over South Georgia and South Carolina. I think we are going to see another inverted trough that will have a notch of higher precipitation further north into TN and NC... however at some point this feature will transfer to the coastal low and skip over or speed over certain regions. Unfortunately the midlands of NC/SC look like a prime target for this occur as the energy transfer occurs. However, if the models continue to trend stronger with the s/w, it will also draw the coastal low further west, and the energy transfer will be more seamless, with less of a hole of precipitation in this region. I really wish I could go back and read the thread last year, because I feel like we were worried about a similar situation playing out, and I believe everywhere in the Carolinas got at leas some accumulation from the event. Thanks Phil, when you and Robert post I always learn something. I'm in pure weenie mode right living and dying by the modes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Eastern NC is going to have some BL issues this run, same as last but QPF has increased 4-5 fold. Surface temps never go below 0C, and 850's make a run for above freezing, maxing out at -0.5C before the heavier precip moves in. HAT is just under 1/2", with changeover there around 12z Thurs and maybe 2/10" as SN, ILM may also see a changeover around that time with likely under 1/10" as SN. FAY looks like all SN with 0.25", but as mentioned, surface temps are an issues, which would cut down on accum, likely as 32 and SN under anything heavy, going to 33-34 in lighter stuff. RDU is 0.12" all SN but again, surface temp issues. RWI is 0.20" likely all SN and PGV is 0.29" all SN. Only concern is surface temps with none of these stations below freezing for the event, at-least per the Euro at 6hr steps . You got to think the Euro is a little high with temp's, the NAM is colder and so is the GFS with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You got that right man!! Thanks Phil, when you and Robert post I always learn something. I'm in pure weenie mode right living and dying by the modes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Even the normally dry uk brings around 0.20 across north ga/carolinas. That's a pretty good sign since it normally is drier than most models. the 12z canadian has FINALLY updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow, 48hr GFS ens mean panel just updated on Allan's site, may have to dust off the sled and find some wax! kind of looks like a RGEM-light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I like the Canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like with these trends CLT might be the spot to be when it's all said and done especially on the south eastern flank. One thing remember the ULL storm a few weeks ago, we were in the thick of it and then it kept trending wetter and wetter and wetter for points north and west. Hopefully we see the same thing, this time though even those to the south and east would still get in on the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow. Also I love the lesser amounts in the upstate and WNC Wow, 48hr GFS ens mean panel just updated on Allan's site, may have to dust off the sled and find some wax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow, 48hr GFS ens mean panel just updated on Allan's site, may have to dust off the sled and find some wax! kind of looks like a RGEM-light That's almost unbelievable how different it is from the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 1004 pressure now on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 however at some point this feature will transfer to the coastal low and skip over or speed over certain regions. Unfortunately the midlands of NC/SC look like a prime target for this occur as the energy transfer occurs. However, if the models continue to trend stronger with the s/w, it will also draw the coastal low further west, and the energy transfer will be more seamless, with less of a hole of precipitation in this region. I really wish I could go back and read the thread last year, because I feel like we were worried about a similar situation playing out, and I believe everywhere in the Carolinas got at leas some accumulation from the event. I recall us having the 'energy transfer to the coast' debate with the March 2, 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, but that hole seems to be shrinking. If this thread brings it home, I'll be immortalized ... J/K. Sort of. Wow. Also I love the lesser amounts in the upstate and WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here is total precip on the WRF NMM through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here is total precip on the WRF NMM through 48. OMG...I know this should probably be in the banter thread, but WHY do I always seem to end up in the hole where there is nothing?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well someone just NW of the precip shield is going to be pissed. There is a fine cutoff. You could have 2-4" of snow and then 20 miles NW you could have partly cloudy skies. That's pretty much what Michelle Kennedy (local met) said. She showed light snow amounts all around Winston, but we were in the 0.0 zone. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow, 48hr GFS ens mean panel just updated on Allan's site, may have to dust off the sled and find some wax! kind of looks like a RGEM-light Is this a sequal to 2/12/10? Sure looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 OMG...I know this should probably be in the banter thread, but WHY do I always seem to end up in the hole where there is nothing?! I feel your pain, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The positive tilt of the 500/700/850 mb troughs is keeping this system fairly cold by SE standards, but it's also limiting the moisture transport. Nice trends today, but there are going to be limits to this QPF ramp-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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