MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Simply put the RGEM and NAM are just more amplified than the GFS which is a game changer. At this point the NAM and RGEM have been more consistent between the three as the storm draws near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Seriously about ATL and lack of a decent MET I want to thank the METS here at American Wx southeast. I trust you guys and learn many things. It really is sad how such a huge market has such little talent. The carolinas has georgia beat by a mile. In their defense though, So many of them though are forced by these channels to kiss the ass of their stupid fantasy models so they can claim to be the most accurate..despite it being wrong nearly all the time. By far you would do better listening to the folks here than them, that's for sure. Anywho, sure would be nice if the rgem verified. Certainly makes it a little more comforting to see it spitting out more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So neighbor ATL .38 us being north would be a little less correct maybe.30 maybe 3-4 inches here I think the RGEM is about .25" or so for our area which would like be 3-4" based on the cold 850s expected. At this point the RGEM has to be considered the "outlier" but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, I tell you what, anytime I can be within 50 miles NORTH of the .4 inch QPF line with 36-48 hours to go, I've still got a chance, especially with the inevitable north trenda and especially THIS winter. Simply put the RGEM and NAM are just more amplified than the GFS which is a game changer. At this point the NAM and RGEM has been more consistent between the three as the storm draws near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, I tell you what, anytime I can be within 50 miles NORTH of the .4 inch QPF line with 36-48 hours to go, I've still got a chance, especially with the inevitable north trenda and especially THIS winter. Agreed. I went back and reread the christmas thread and we were all dumping with only 24 hours to go before the storm. It's not over yet by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This winter has been nothing special for those in north and central NC but people in Ga have far exceeded their snow totals versus their averages so this has been a great winter for them. Other parts of the south (like Dallas, Huntsville) have also had very good winters relatively speaking but most of us thought this would be a sucky winter due to La Nina anyway so we did okay considering that, just not as well as areas further south and southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 color through 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Simply put the RGEM and NAM are just more amplified than the GFS which is a game changer. At this point the NAM and RGEM have been more consistent between the three as the storm draws near. Even the HPC threw out the GFS. Now the GFS is starting to show signs of trending back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's my call. LOL at that snowless screw zone in the middle where I just so happen to live. I realize that the commonly accepted meme is that this has been a phenomenal winter, but if this map verifies, it would be the final kick in the gut in a winter that has blown so much potential IMBY. For me, it's been a season of NW shifts, over-suppression, dry air, and 33 degree surface temps. The Christmas snow will go down as this winter's saving grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The NW trend just prior to go time is about as predictable as saying it's going to be hot and humid in Columbia, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 LOL at that snowless screw zone in the middle where I just so happen to live. I realize that the commonly accepted meme is that this has been a phenomenal winter, but if this map verifies, it would be the final kick in the gut in a winter that has blown so much potential IMBY. For me, it's been a season of NW shifts, over-suppression, dry air, and 33 degree surface temps. The Christmas snow will go down as this winter's saving grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Considering all the warm forecasts for this winter, I doubt anyone expected what we have gotten. No matter what happens beyond this point, this winter was a major win. It would be nice to get 2 inches out of this, pushing my season total to around 15 inches. One thing about this system that folks should keep in mind is it IS going to look impressive on radar when it's in the southern plains. Snow should be quite widespread and it's going to look like we are going to be in for a good one. But if the models are right, it's going to decrease significantly once it gets to MS/AL. Reason I mention this is it's going to get folks excited seeing it but everyone should keep their expectations in check when seeing it. I think 1 to 2 inches for most in north ga/sc/al, and eastern nc (2 to 5 along the coast), which has been my thinking most of the way, is still an ok expectation. Hard to say if there will be a lot in western nc. Despite a saturated column, nam and gfs just aren't putting out much. That said, it will be colder there with 850s of -5 to -6c so it won't take as much to get to one inch there with good ratios. I'd say around an inch there but you never know how mesoscale effects could play a role and increase (or decrease) totals. 1-2" would be fine with me as well, giving snow in each month! this winter has been a major win, esp after last years good winter and the prognosis for a bad one this year. i hope people read your post. the radar will look fantastic and moving right towards us. some posts have stated 'how can it weaken so fast' - well it can. i have seen radar all lit up over MS and AL and as it moves into n ga the precip just dries up it could be a pretty big bummer to now cast this one. hopefully we will get an inch or two though and most of us should be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 100% agree Skip.. Yeah, I tell you what, anytime I can be within 50 miles NORTH of the .4 inch QPF line with 36-48 hours to go, I've still got a chance, especially with the inevitable north trenda and especially THIS winter. + I assume that what ever falls around this area will be Snow. That is a + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 And boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I assume that you're playing "The Devil Went Down To Georgia" on that fiddle of yours. He took the QPF with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The GGEM is dropping about .10" of precip here, so perhaps 1" of snow if it verifies. I think its a little bullish though on the amounts, but overall its areas of precip look like the others, just higher quantity, with the min zone in the lee areas of Upstate, central and western piedmont /foothills of NC. It matched the Euro closely as well with anywhere from a dusting to 1" around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 And boom goes the dynamite. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 And boom goes the dynamite. Well someone just NW of the precip shield is going to be pissed. There is a fine cutoff. You could have 2-4" of snow and then 20 miles NW you could have partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks good to me for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks good to me for central NC. It's very close, to me it looks like the NW side of Wake county is light precip and the SE side is much better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 1-2" would be fine with me as well, giving snow in each month! this winter has been a major win, esp after last years good winter and the prognosis for a bad one this year. i hope people read your post. the radar will look fantastic and moving right towards us. some posts have stated 'how can it weaken so fast' - well it can. i have seen radar all lit up over MS and AL and as it moves into n ga the precip just dries up it could be a pretty big bummer to now cast this one. hopefully we will get an inch or two though and most of us should be happy Of course I could be wrong if the rgem is right, it drops at minimum 0.40 here with 0.60 amounts not very far to the south, with 0.40 making it to your area. One would think it's overdone since no other model is showing that much but it's interesting none the less. 12z euro has come in wetter too showing 0.10 to 0.25 amounts in north ga now, with 0.10 from hky to east of gso. Has similar amounts for all of ms, al, and tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow Hope I am wrong, but I just don't see those amounts materializing for the Coastal Plain, at-least not yet. Nothing else even hints at >0.75" here, and even the wettest GFS members were only around 0.5" Just looked at the 12z members on e-wall, and no surprise, they continue to be wetter than the op. Not sure if it is solely because of the coarser grid, or some other reason beyond me, but even the 12z op which was a step, is a moderate outlier within its own ens suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks good to me for central NC. Like I said- I think that is about .39 qpf for us Brick...which would be nice. However- I'd like to see other guidance come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 FWIW...12z Euro is more amplified and has higher QPF across all of GA. >.10" QPF across all of GA with >.25" QPF just north of Columbus to about Lagrange area. 0z EURO almost had the whole state at <.10" except for far south GA. Edit: Just saw that Lookout has already mention this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Seems the models are trending with more precip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 btw, euro showing between 0.25 and 0.50 on the nc coast. The 0.50 contour is right on the coast so probably around 0.35 most areas in eastern nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Seems the models are trending with more precip now. Just like the Christmas storm. Don't ever forget. This system isn't dead by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well that sucks...guess it's towel throwing time. Note quite... I'm implying that while we didn't see the more extreme solution that the RUC had, the models are still trending towards the RUC because even after being less amplified in verification, its still was more amplified than any of the model guidance. If anything, this just reminds me of the February 12th, 2010 event last year. The setup is pretty different, but pretty much all the guidance lost the storm (The GFS infamously sent the low to Cuba). However, the last 24 hours saw a major trend northward with the system and also revealed an inverted trough that ended up producing much of the snow that occurred on the north end of the storm, despite the 850mb low being much further south over South Georgia and South Carolina. I think we are going to see another inverted trough that will have a notch of higher precipitation further north into TN and NC... however at some point this feature will transfer to the coastal low and skip over or speed over certain regions. Unfortunately the midlands of NC/SC look like a prime target for this occur as the energy transfer occurs. However, if the models continue to trend stronger with the s/w, it will also draw the coastal low further west, and the energy transfer will be more seamless, with less of a hole of precipitation in this region. I really wish I could go back and read the thread last year, because I feel like we were worried about a similar situation playing out, and I believe everywhere in the Carolinas got at leas some accumulation from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It's very close, to me it looks like the NW side of Wake county is light precip and the SE side is much better off. If that holds folks down here like me and Eyewall are in business. Y'all come on down to Faynam, where we clear the overpasses with tanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow...every GFS ensemble mbr gives >.25" QPF across far N GA while the operational (top left panel) shows <.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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