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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III

beanskip

By beanskip,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Yes, its hard to ignore all the models having the transfer quickly to the SC coast, so I think there will be a max there, maybe closer to 3" than 6" though. For the lee areas it should be a non event practically, with the transfer, loss of dynamics and very dry air in place with paltry rates, some areas likely won't see a flake, but the vast majority of where I shaded brown could see brief flurries but otherwise, nothing basically. This type of thing happens a lot here in Spring as well with showers moving east to west, skipping the lee, so its a nightmare throwback for me, and a staunch reminder /reality check, of the upcoming Spring and Summer months I'm afraid.

I wouldn't say there is a lot of dry air, Here is hickory's sounding from the nam/gfs at hour 42. A pretty deep saturated column it looks like to me. Even before the main moisture arrives, it doesn't look too dry. But of course the loss of dynamics as you mentioned is the killer. I actually think there will be some but it's really hard to figure out how much. Only a few hundreths though would lead to a half inch to inch with such a cold column. 

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 6Z THU 10 FEB 11
Station: KHKY
Latitude:   35.73
Longitude: -81.38
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   151                                                                 
SFC  976   343   0.5  -5.4  65  5.9  -1.6 339   6 275.5 276.0 272.8 282.8  2.61
 2  950   563  -0.2  -5.5  68  5.2  -2.1 357   7 277.0 277.4 273.7 284.4  2.68
 3  900   992  -3.3  -6.3  80  2.9  -4.4 278   2 278.1 278.5 274.3 285.5  2.66
 4  850  1443  -5.1  -7.7  82  2.6  -6.0 227   8 280.8 281.2 275.6 287.9  2.52
 5  800  1916  -8.1  -9.8  87  1.7  -8.7 237  24 282.5 282.9 276.2 289.0  2.26
 6  750  2415 -10.2 -11.8  88  1.6 -10.6 237  36 285.5 285.9 277.4 291.6  2.06
 7  700  2944 -12.3 -13.8  89  1.4 -12.8 243  44 288.9 289.2 278.9 294.5  1.88
 8  650  3509 -13.0 -14.4  90  1.3 -13.4 244  52 294.2 294.6 281.4 300.1  1.93
 9  600  4115 -15.1 -16.5  89  1.4 -15.5 242  60 298.6 298.9 283.0 304.0  1.75
10  550  4771 -18.0 -19.3  90  1.3 -18.3 239  70 302.7 303.0 284.4 307.5  1.51
11  500  5480 -20.0 -21.2  90  1.2 -20.3 236  88 308.7 308.9 286.5 313.3  1.41
12  450  6252 -26.1 -28.1  84  1.9 -26.5 236 104 310.4 310.6 286.5 313.2  0.84
13  400  7092 -31.8 -37.9  55  6.1 -32.5 235 115 313.6 313.7 287.1 314.9  0.36

Date: 42 hour AVN valid 6Z THU 10 FEB 11
Station: KHKY
Latitude:   35.73
Longitude: -81.38
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   164                                                                 
SFC  970   412  -0.4  -3.7  78  3.3  -1.6 338   5 275.2 275.7 273.2 283.5  3.00
 2  950   576  -0.4  -4.3  75  3.9  -1.9 337   6 276.8 277.3 273.9 284.9  2.93
 3  900  1006  -3.1  -5.2  85  2.1  -3.8 296   4 278.3 278.8 274.8 286.4  2.88
 4  850  1456  -5.6  -6.6  93  1.0  -6.0 237   8 280.2 280.7 275.6 288.0  2.73
 5  800  1929  -8.3  -8.8  96  0.5  -8.5 238  16 282.3 282.7 276.3 289.3  2.45
 6  750  2428 -11.0 -11.3  98  0.3 -11.1 250  21 284.6 285.0 277.1 290.9  2.14
 7  700  2955 -12.8 -13.2  96  0.4 -12.9 252  29 288.4 288.7 278.7 294.2  1.97
 8  650  3521 -12.9 -13.7  94  0.7 -13.2 247  45 294.3 294.7 281.5 300.5  2.05
 9  600  4129 -14.9 -15.6  94  0.7 -15.1 248  59 298.9 299.2 283.3 304.8  1.89
10  550  4782 -19.3 -19.8  97  0.4 -19.4 253  66 301.1 301.4 283.7 305.7  1.45
11  500  5484 -23.5 -23.8  97  0.3 -23.5 248  83 304.4 304.6 284.6 308.1  1.12
12  450  6248 -28.5 -28.8  98  0.2 -28.6 237  90 307.4 307.5 285.3 310.1  0.79
13  400  7082 -33.0 -34.4  87  1.4 -33.1 241 115 312.1 312.2 286.7 313.9  0.52
14  350  8015 -36.4 -47.0  33 10.6 -37.1 246 134 319.7 319.7 288.8 320.3  0.16
15  300  9069 -42.5 -55.7  22 13.2 -43.1 250 152 325.4 325.4 290.5 325.7  0.07

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Mellish called for a warmer and drier winter from the beginning. Around the first of the year he said January would be colder than forecasted, but flip around 1/24. Now he is saying possible end of winter after this week.?. I think it might be the last stand before his winter forecast is a total start to finish bust. He is usually very non-commital on forecasts both for storms and long range patterns, yet he claims to be Atlantas most accurate and dependable. Obviously, the bar is not set very high at al in the ATL. area!!!! To mention 2 or 3 possibilies of what might happen right up until the storm and then say you got right is not nailing it in my opinion. He would do well to look at what James Spann and Mathew East do to be accurate and dependable for their viewers. Their have been some tough calls this winter, but when is snow in the SE not a tough call?

I'VE done better than him this winter and what the hell do I know?

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

First of all, I failed to mention in my previous post what a great jon Allan and Robert do on this site keeping us informed. Thanks Guys.

Second, Spann is really cranking out the info on Alabamawx.com today. He also growing more confident that we see accumulating snow down to and south of I-20 ( at least in Alabama).

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

The only long range forecaster who nailed this winter was KA as far as I know. Even though he doesn't forecast for our area he was against every other forecast out there when calling for colder than normal and above normal snow.

My expectations were low in January thinking the nina would dominate the pattern so I was quite pleased especially after having a white Christmas! Truly a special winter so far! :snowman:

Meh, I don't follow him much since the subforums came to be but that guy is and has always been highly overrated. He has blown a ton of forecasts over the years...despite the absurd grading scale some have when judging these things. Plus, his forecasts are only for dc as far as I know so I wouldn't say he nailed anything here.

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polarexpress00

polarexpress00

Posted
Posted

Thanks, Allan. Looking like a solid 1 to 3 here.

BTW, Kirk Mellish said on my drive this morning that "this may be winter's last hoorah with a big warm up forecast for next week and beyond". What the heck? It is February 8th, right? Has he been right in one aspect of his forecast this year? I used to think he was the one ray of light we had in this crappy ass weather market. Not so much any more! :gun_bandana:

You hit the nail on the head!! The mets are pathetic there honestly is not a single one I have faith in (11 alive,2,5,46,NWS, TWC) that's sad. I feel same towards Mellish. He seems very knowledgeable with some of his blog post but there is something that just turns me off in general. 11 alive in the mornings Chesley McNeil WOW he is a met then i am a surgeon. I have decided to watch CBS 46 and Darma Metcaf? sp I really enjoy WATCHING her forecast afterall at least she is consistently HOT

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GaStorm

GaStorm

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Posted

Meh, I don't follow him much since the subforums came to be but that guy is and has always been highly overrated. He has blown a ton of forecasts over the years...despite the absurd grading scale some have when judging these things. Plus, his forecasts are only for dc as far as I know so I wouldn't say he nailed anything here.

True but I was only referring to his area. Most people didn't expect below normal temps in January for most of the east coast.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't say there is a lot of dry air, Here is hickory's sounding from the nam/gfs at hour 42. A pretty deep saturated column it looks like to me. Even before the main moisture arrives, it doesn't look too dry. But of course the loss of dynamics as you mentioned is the killer. I actually think there will be some but it's really hard to figure out how much. Only a few hundreths though would lead to a half inch to inch with such a cold column.

I don't think the good RH gets this far north, and what does breaks apart as it comes east of the Smokies, but there will be some areas to the north with the upper dynamics thats why I had ne TN and Virginia in some precip, but not here. I've seen these mountains just kill anything that tries to come east of them if the dynamics are weak to begin with, and there's no high to the north damming in with east winds to help offset it, like a true miller A. Hence, I'm going bone dry, but no doubt some pockets of flurries will probably materialize. The NAM GFS new UKMET all have the weak Gulf low jump and reform to SC coast, which is part of the reason the precip dies out here. Its happened like this before a few years ago as well, so literally a band of moisture is approaching from southeast Tn/northern GA and evaporates here, then redevelops in the central piedmont, atleast thats how I see it.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

12z RGEM is a tad stronger than 0z run...at least thru 36 hour mark. Trough is slightly deeper and moisture is slightly further north.

On the 0z run the 700mb 294 isobar sliced thru central Ky. On the 12z run its now dips down into central AR and extreme NW MS.

http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

I don't think the good RH gets this far north, and what does breaks apart as it comes east of the Smokies, but there will be some areas to the north with the upper dynamics thats why I had ne TN and Virginia in some precip, but not here. I've seen these mountains just kill anything that tries to come east of them if the dynamics are weak to begin with, and there's no high to the north damming in with east winds to help offset it, like a true miller A. Hence, I'm going bone dry, but no doubt some pockets of flurries will probably materialize. The NAM GFS new UKMET all have the weak Gulf low jump and reform to SC coast, which is part of the reason the precip dies out here. Its happened like this before a few years ago as well, so literally a band of moisture is approaching from southeast Tn/northern GA and evaporates here, then redevelops in the central piedmont, atleast thats how I see it.

I've never heard this before you mentioning it a few times with this storm, and I thing it's a very good point.

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polarexpress00

polarexpress00

Posted
Posted

I'VE done better than him this winter and what the hell do I know?

Right on Dacula. I honestly feel that way towards many of the mets (I guess mets) HA in the ATL area. Seriously Chesley McNeil 11 alive he is a met that might explain it all. seems last say 20 yrs generally mets have regressed rather than progressed because they rely on too much technology an overload of BS in their heads in turn complicates an already complicated thing called WEATHER a little simplicity and humility might help look at the big picture guys

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Southern Track

Southern Track

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Posted

I don't think the good RH gets this far north, and what does breaks apart as it comes east of the Smokies, but there will be some areas to the north with the upper dynamics thats why I had ne TN and Virginia in some precip, but not here. I've seen these mountains just kill anything that tries to come east of them if the dynamics are weak to begin with, and there's no high to the north damming in with east winds to help offset it, like a true miller A. Hence, I'm going bone dry, but no doubt some pockets of flurries will probably materialize. The NAM GFS new UKMET all have the weak Gulf low jump and reform to SC coast, which is part of the reason the precip dies out here. Its happened like this before a few years ago as well, so literally a band of moisture is approaching from southeast Tn/northern GA and evaporates here, then redevelops in the central piedmont, atleast thats how I see it.

I would agree. You've experienced the same thing I have over the years in Upstate SC. I've seen the transfer of energy so many times to the coast right when the precip looks to be moving in our area. I could see that happening again, hope not, but I could see it.:thumbsdown:

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Lookout

Lookout

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Posted

I don't think the good RH gets this far north, and what does breaks apart as it comes east of the Smokies, but there will be some areas to the north with the upper dynamics thats why I had ne TN and Virginia in some precip, but not here. I've seen these mountains just kill anything that tries to come east of them if the dynamics are weak to begin with, and there's no high to the north damming in with east winds to help offset it, like a true miller A. Hence, I'm going bone dry, but no doubt some pockets of flurries will probably materialize. The NAM GFS new UKMET all have the weak Gulf low jump and reform to SC coast, which is part of the reason the precip dies out here. Its happened like this before a few years ago as well, so literally a band of moisture is approaching from southeast Tn/northern GA and evaporates here, then redevelops in the central piedmont, atleast thats how I see it.

I understand what you are saying and I have certainly seen it happen over and over like you but we are only talking a few hundredths of an inch here...which one would think wouldn't be hard to muster up and enough to make for some light accumulations. So this is why I'm a bit more optimistic for your area. I can certainly see you being right though knowing how the mountains effect that area.

But you know I'm sitting here laughing a bit at us trying to be accurate within a few hundredths of an inch. Despite the big differences it makes as far as sensible weather goes in this situation, it's laughable when you think about how tiny that much is and how tiny your target is.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Been out of the loop again- agree with Foothills's map. Best sign is the SREF getting wetter and of course the GFS. If we get at least 1" it will be the first time for me since I moved here in 1982 that we have gotten three 1" storms. So for GA it has been a great winter, YMMV.

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