RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 A very balanced and reasonable forecast, Allan. Even though I'm not happy with it, it makes sense. I just hope you have to change your forecast later this afternoon or early tomorrow morning to include more areas in the blue or pink areas of snowfall totals. I would love to as well. I always love busting low on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So here is my forecast. http://www.examiner....nesday-thursday Thanks, Allan. Looking like a solid 1 to 3 here. BTW, Kirk Mellish said on my drive this morning that "this may be winter's last hoorah with a big warm up forecast for next week and beyond". What the heck? It is February 8th, right? Has he been right in one aspect of his forecast this year? I used to think he was the one ray of light we had in this crappy ass weather market. Not so much any more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks, Allan. Looking like a solid 1 to 3 here. BTW, Kirk Mellish said on my drive this morning that "this may be winter's last hoorah with a big warm up forecast for next week and beyond". What the heck? It is February 8th, right? Has he been right in one aspect of his forecast this year? I used to think he was the one ray of light we had in this crappy ass weather market. Not so much any more! It's almost like this winter broke his spirit with his winter forecast being perpetually wrong. Normally he is good but a little too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 whoa foothills!!?? coastal chance huh? what about Boundry layer temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I need 11" to put me at 11" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Seems like the 12z RGEM is running late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Pretty aggressive on that 3-6" in eastern NC. Will rely on that coastal developing fairly well I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks, Allan. Looking like a solid 1 to 3 here. BTW, Kirk Mellish said on my drive this morning that "this may be winter's last hoorah with a big warm up forecast for next week and beyond". What the heck? It is February 8th, right? Has he been right in one aspect of his forecast this year? I used to think he was the one ray of light we had in this crappy ass weather market. Not so much any more! He must be going with the GFS for his long range call. If we can manage snow every month this winter it will be truly amazing. I certainly didn't expect it in a moderate la nina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z UKMet looks slightly north with the flow over the Great Lakes and slightly north with the sfc low axis through N Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It's almost like this winter broke his spirit with his winter forecast being perpetually wrong. Normally he is good but a little too conservative. I watched jb the other day and he looked beaten. I wonder what his big energy clients are saying to him. That is where he makes his money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's my call. Great map Robert. Hope that pans out , or even better for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Good Luck down there guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's my call. That map will more then likely verify knowing our luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well it seems that the RUC didn't quite maintain it's solution from last night... But even after it trended less amplified, it was still more amplified than the American models by the initialization time so we are seeing them trend stronger with the s/w to account for the system being stronger initially. The RUC continues to be stronger in the later intervals, although it likely will trend weaker, but ultimately still more amplified than the GFS and NAM by the initial time. What this means is that we should see guidance continues to trend stronger, but likely not majorly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcld76 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So here is my forecast. http://www.examiner....nesday-thursday Love that 1-3" narrow band your run through the Carolinas. Just curious what led you to that. Track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's my call. Ah yes. I am squarely in that brown turd over the Piedmont. Sadly I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 yep, that's me - right in the brown hole in NC. Never have I seen a winter with so much potential go to waste. Maybe Jan 1994 which was brutally cold but dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well it seems that the RUC didn't quite maintain it's solution from last night... But even after it trended less amplified, it was still more amplified than the American models by the initialization time so we are seeing them trend stronger with the s/w to account for the system being stronger initially. The RUC continues to be stronger in the later intervals, although it likely will trend weaker, but ultimately still more amplified by the initial time. What this means is that we should see guidance continues to trend stronger, but likely not majorly so. Well that sucks...guess it's towel throwing time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The screw zone is maintaining its reputation, once again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 He must be going with the GFS for his long range call. If we can manage snow every month this winter it will be truly amazing. I certainly didn't expect it in a moderate la nina! Considering all the warm forecasts for this winter, I doubt anyone expected what we have gotten. No matter what happens beyond this point, this winter was a major win. It would be nice to get 2 inches out of this, pushing my season total to around 15 inches. One thing about this system that folks should keep in mind is it IS going to look impressive on radar when it's in the southern plains. Snow should be quite widespread and it's going to look like we are going to be in for a good one. But if the models are right, it's going to decrease significantly once it gets to MS/AL. Reason I mention this is it's going to get folks excited seeing it but everyone should keep their expectations in check when seeing it. I think 1 to 2 inches for most in north ga/sc/al, and eastern nc (2 to 5 along the coast), which has been my thinking most of the way, is still an ok expectation. Hard to say if there will be a lot in western nc. Despite a saturated column, nam and gfs just aren't putting out much. That said, it will be colder there with 850s of -5 to -6c so it won't take as much to get to one inch there with good ratios. I'd say around an inch there but you never know how mesoscale effects could play a role and increase (or decrease) totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I guess the RGEM just isn't going to have a 12z run ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks, Allan. Looking like a solid 1 to 3 here. BTW, Kirk Mellish said on my drive this morning that "this may be winter's last hoorah with a big warm up forecast for next week and beyond". What the heck? It is February 8th, right? Has he been right in one aspect of his forecast this year? I used to think he was the one ray of light we had in this crappy ass weather market. Not so much any more! Mellish called for a warmer and drier winter from the beginning. Around the first of the year he said January would be colder than forecasted, but flip around 1/24. Now he is saying possible end of winter after this week.?. I think it might be the last stand before his winter forecast is a total start to finish bust. He is usually very non-commital on forecasts both for storms and long range patterns, yet he claims to be Atlantas most accurate and dependable. Obviously, the bar is not set very high at al in the ATL. area!!!! To mention 2 or 3 possibilies of what might happen right up until the storm and then say you got right is not nailing it in my opinion. He would do well to look at what James Spann and Mathew East do to be accurate and dependable for their viewers. Their have been some tough calls this winter, but when is snow in the SE not a tough call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Pretty aggressive on that 3-6" in eastern NC. Will rely on that coastal developing fairly well I assume. Yes, its hard to ignore all the models having the transfer quickly to the SC coast, so I think there will be a max there, maybe closer to 3" than 6" though. For the lee areas it should be a non event practically, with the transfer, loss of dynamics and very dry air in place with paltry rates, some areas likely won't see a flake, but the vast majority of where I shaded brown could see brief flurries but otherwise, nothing basically. This type of thing happens a lot here in Spring as well with showers moving east to west, skipping the lee, so its a nightmare throwback for me, and a staunch reminder /reality check, of the upcoming Spring and Summer months I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well I just uploaded the soundings on bufkit for the WRF ensembles, and I was trying to type up the list for the major cities across the south with snow accumulations of every ensemble member, but I accidentally closed the browser. So I'm too lazy to re-type everything again, but they looked good. They were anywhere from 1-4 for KATL/BHM. KGWO averaged 3-5, KHSV 2-4,KGSP average 2-3, KCAE averaged 1-3. This was out to 48hrs using 10:1 snow ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 LR.. This is what I thought when I saw your map Robert. Not cool and NOT what we need going into Spring..... mesh..... This type of thing happens a lot here in Spring as well with showers moving east to west, skipping the lee, so its a nightmare throwback for me, and a staunch reminder /reality check, of the upcoming Spring and Summer months I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I guess the RGEM just isn't going to have a 12z run ...... 00hr just updated so it has finally started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Considering all the warm forecasts for this winter, I doubt anyone expected what we have gotten. No matter what happens beyond this point, this winter was a major win. It would be nice to get 2 inches out of this, pushing my season total to around 15 inches. One thing about this system that folks should keep in mind is it IS going to look impressive on radar when it's in the southern plains. Snow should be quite widespread and it's going to look like we are going to be in for a good one. But if the models are right, it's going to decrease significantly once it gets to MS/AL. Reason I mention this is it's going to get folks excited seeing it but everyone should keep their expectations in check when seeing it. I think 1 to 2 inches for most in north ga/sc/al, and eastern nc (2 to 5 along the coast), which has been my thinking most of the way, is still an ok expectation. Hard to say if there will be a lot in western nc. Despite a saturated column, nam and gfs just aren't putting out much. That said, it will be colder there with 850s of -5 to -6c so it won't take as much to get to one inch there with good ratios. I'd say around an inch there but you never know how mesoscale effects could play a role and increase (or decrease) totals. The only long range forecaster who nailed this winter was KA as far as I know. Even though he doesn't forecast for our area he was against every other forecast out there when calling for colder than normal and above normal snow. My expectations were low in January thinking the nina would dominate the pattern so I was quite pleased especially after having a white Christmas! Truly a special winter so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The only long range forecaster who nailed this winter was KA as far as I know. Even though he doesn't forecast for our area he was against every other forecast out there when calling for colder than normal and above normal snow. My expectations were low in January thinking the nina would dominate the pattern so I was quite pleased especially after having a white Christmas! Truly a special winter so far! KA?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 KA?? Keith Allen in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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