oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 PBP for 12Z NAM anyone? I'm looking at it and comparing to 06Z, some differences early on to my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 would be killer. No breathe holding here. However, bring it... I'm starting to get that good feeling we have a surprise on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @21 it looks like the NAM has picked up on what Phil talked about with the RUC...maybe I'm reading it wrong so I don't want to get anyone's hopes up but we shall see in the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @27 our vort is stronger but not sure if it's strong enough.....it did look like it phased some energy to it's north earlier and that allowed it to strengthen but in the frame 6 hours it weakened pretty fast. Seemed a little odd but anyways let's see what happens next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Keep us going' burger! I don't have time at work to look at all the models, bring it on home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @33 again the 500mb looks stronger...not much difference in the sfc maps though, a little more moisture towards the north west side of the shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @33 again the 500mb looks stronger...not much difference in the sfc maps though, a little more moisture towards the north west side of the shield. okl/ark another foot, that hasn't changed thx bugger keep it goin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @39 it looks like it has a more negative tilt to it....we really need a met to chime in since I'm not exactly the best at these tricky solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @39 it looks like it has a more negative tilt to it....we really need a met to chime in since I'm not exactly the best at these tricky solutions. looks good up to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The NAM just took a step in the right direction boys.....not exactly a major winter storm but it at least has everyone in qpf @45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 HPC's thoughts ...FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...PREFERENCE... 00Z NAM/ECMWF00Z NAM IS A BIT DEEPER ALOFT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ALOFT BUT COMPARES WELL AT THE SFC. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAKER ALOFT AND THE 00Z UKMET IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS THAN THECONSENSUS. WILL LEAN AGAINST THE WEAK/SHEARED OUT GFS....WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES EARLY THURSDAY...... SFC LOW PUSHING OFFSHORE NC/SC THURSDAY...PREFERENCE... 00Z ECMWF THE 00Z NAM/UKMET TRACK THE SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS ISMUCH WEAKER ALOFT AND AT THE SFC AND MAINTAINS A FLATTER/WEAKER/MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM/UKMETARE A BIT STRONGER/QUICKER WITH THIS SECOND LOW THAN THE 00ZECMWF. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT WEAKER SYSTEM HERE THOUGH NOT AS WEAK AS THE GFS... SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 okl/ark another foot, that hasn't changed thx bugger keep it goin Tell me how you really feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Still painfully light for WNC but again this was a step in the right direction we need to keep this trend going. Another interesting thing is how that low off the coast keeps getting closer and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Tell me how you really feel You did good!! I was just playin with ya! I like the looks of the NAM i'm not buying the dry slot for now. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You did good!! I was just playin with ya! I like the looks of the NAM i'm not buying the dry slot for now. 2-4" Haha. Yea I like the looks of it too, we keep this going we are in business. Looks like the RUC is the one to watch as it's leading the charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm afraid the writing is on the wall for the western half of NC. From RDU west the trend just isn't there. The coastal is going to take over tomorrow night and the best lift and moisture jumps to the eastern Carolinas. This has been suggested for quite a while now. Areas east of I 95 to the northern OBX will probably get a decent little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 nice to see this trending north a little, maybe good things yet to come as the day goes on and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ok guys. Let's break it down. Here are the last 3 runs of the NAM from 00z to 06z to 12z. Notice how @ H5 the upper level energy is stay consolidated a little longer each time and not getting broken down by the confluence from the NE. As a result we now have much higher vorticity in MS. Baby steps into the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm afraid the writing is on the wall for the western half of NC. From RDU west the trend just isn't there. The coastal is going to take over tomorrow night and the best lift and moisture jumps to the eastern Carolinas. This has been suggested for quite a while now. Areas east of I 95 to the northern OBX will probably get a decent little snow. Based off of the latest NAM I'm afraid I beg to differ. I'll wait till 00z to really start thinking this is a total screw job. I think you make a very valid point...but I think it's going to be a wait and see thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Based off of the latest NAM I'm afraid I beg to differ. I'll wait till 00z to really start thinking this is a total screw job. I think you make a very valid point...but I think it's going to be a wait and see thing. well, I certainly hope that I am wrong. However, the first system gets squashed tomorrow afternoon/evening as it kind of gets left behind- you'll notice the 700 mb RH from the initial system never makes substantial headway into the western Carolinas. Instead- a new area of 700 MB RH/Omega develops along the coast in response to the developing coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Love the hole in NC on this run... lol Based off of the latest NAM I'm afraid I beg to differ. I'll wait till 00z to really start thinking this is a total screw job. I think you make a very valid point...but I think it's going to be a wait and see thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I think the models are seeing a trend toward a stronger shortwave that might take longer to weaken as it moves east. Still a lot can change but I like our chances more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Based off of the latest NAM I'm afraid I beg to differ. I'll wait till 00z to really start thinking this is a total screw job. I think you make a very valid point...but I think it's going to be a wait and see thing. I agree with your burger, unfortunately we are going to have to model watch some more, the latest NAM is definitely wetter and shifted N/W some. We are still 36+ hours away. I was kind of hoping it would be dry again to put us out of our misery but we are now forced to watch a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 We'll see what the rest of the guidance has to say today. IF the NAM is in the ball park, then maybe a dusting around RDU??? Of course, we could see the precip from the coastal expand further west over the next few cycles, but I wouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 We'll see what the rest of the guidance has to say today. IF the NAM is in the ball park, then maybe a dusting around RDU??? Of course, we could see the precip from the coastal expand further west over the next few cycles, but I wouldn't count on it. Probably more like 0.5-1.5" in Raleigh, given .1-.25" QPF, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z NAM vs 13z RUC. Seems as though the RUC is further north with the precip field. Also 35-40dbz is showing up on the RUC and not on the NAM. http://ruc.noaa.gov/...ref_sfc_f24.png http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Probably more like 0.5-1.5" in Raleigh, given .1-.25" QPF, IMO. except that it's barely in the .10 range and it's not all going to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 remember the storms last year seems the prcip went quite a bit further north than the models would show. 12z NAM vs 13z RUC. Seems as though the RUC is further north with the precip field. Also 35-40dbz is showing up on the RUC and not on the NAM. http://ruc.noaa.gov/...ref_sfc_f24.png http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Probably more like 0.5-1.5" in Raleigh, given .1-.25" QPF, IMO. Yeah, per the NAM we are 20 miles from partly cloudy skies but we are 50 miles from 2-3" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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