Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think a general 1-2 across NC is a good forecast. I have a feeling the areas that see the better moisture down-east may have boundary layer issues to negate it. These types of storms bore me now for some reason after the last two years. I agree. If it's not enough to close down work for the day, I don't care to see it. I want a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I hate to say it but Lookout said yesterday it would look great on radar and then it would just die out...which might still happen; not trying to get my hopes up too much but it looks like this could be a little surprise for us in WNC. I'll be happy with 1-2 if we can squeeze it out. Why do you hate to say it? To be clear though, I didn't say it would just die out but if the models were right it would weaken significantly as it got to around alabama since that is when the Models showed a significant decrease in intensity. We are about at that time where we are going to find out if the models have been right. But My main point was not to get overly excited and think we are going to pick up much more than expected based on how well it looks right now. We might very well end up with a lot more but it's best to keep your expectations in check with this one. But I have not been as pessimistic for north carolina as a whole as some others, as I think up to an inch has been possible there all along even though models were rather dry. But recent runs have been trending wetter which is what I expected. It should be noted though the gfs and nam both look too dry across tn right now. Both models show only a few hundreths of an inch there when it looks like it's going to be more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I agree. If it's not enough to close down work for the day, I don't care to see it. I want a big storm. ive been reading your posts more. I dont think you are really a weenie. You seem like a normal poster that wants snow like everyone else. I think you probably lost your chance at weenie of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I like the look of the radar in southern Tenn (from central to east). The precip is actually intensifying and this should correlate further east (at least I am hoping so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Flakes starting to fly at the space center in Huntsville. http://www.opentopia.com/webcam/2934?viewmode=livevideo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 this storm still looks strong to me, won't be surprised to wake up to more snow. just don't think anyone knows what its going to do. i think its holding its strength longer than it was suppose to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Nashville is getting hammered right now and I don't see this band weakening much as it heads towards Knoxville. I went out to pick up the trash cans and there were already a few flakes flying. The birds are also going crazy outside so they know something is up. Even the wild turkeys near my house were acting strangely this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Lookng at radar trends, I notice precip breaking out in central SC and the coast. Wondering if that low pressure is trying to form closer to the coast and further south? According to OUR local disco, Were supposed to be partly Cloudy, with NO chance of rain... It was to remain offshore by 20NM... Disco also mentioned that the air column was "to dry"? Indicating that alot of our precip would be wasted cooling the air column before WE get any sn.... BUST! Raining lightly outside, with a LOW Cloud deck, temps are dropping QUICKLY.... Earlier it was nice/sunny around 1 PM around 50... Now in the past 3 hours current temps & obs are 44 humidity at 94% Dew point at 44 pressure falling.. 30.15 and falling... "that smell" of snow is in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Phil is right, Nashville slammed! http://www.tdot.stat...vnash/cam74.asp Now lets get that band further east... as long as the connection from the Gulf is maintained, I think we have a shot. By the way for those interested, here is my totals map. Still have a hole in portions of NC, but not as bad as some of the models would suggest. High snowfall ratios should help us out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Phil can you please move your 2-4 snowband about 20 miles east or south? thanks bro Now lets get that band further east... as long as the connection from the Gulf is maintained, I think we have a shot. By the way for those interested, here is my totals map. Still have a hole in portions of NC, but not as bad as some of the models would suggest. High snowfall ratios should help us out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Why do you hate to say it? To be clear though, I didn't say it would just die out but if the models were right it would weaken significantly as it got to around alabama since that is when the Models showed a significant decrease in intensity. We are about at that time where we are going to find out if the models have been right. But My main point was not to get overly excited and think we are going to pick up much more than expected based on how well it looks right now. We might very well end up with a lot more but it's best to keep your expectations in check with this one. But I have not been as pessimistic for north carolina as a whole as some others, as I think up to an inch has been possible there all along even though models were rather dry. But recent runs have been trending wetter which is what I expected. It should be noted though the gfs and nam both look too dry across tn right now. Both models show only a few hundreths of an inch there when it looks like it's going to be more than that. Yea sorry didn't mean to take you out of context but I thought you brought up a good point and was kind of prophetic about how near the event we would all be talking about how good the radar looked and it would fizzle so to speak. So what I meant was just more of a "hey let's temper our enthusiasm so we don't have a melt down". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 ive been reading your posts more. I dont think you are really a weenie. You seem like a normal poster that wants snow like everyone else. I think you probably lost your chance at weenie of the year you guys should run on the same ticket just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Now lets get that band further east... as long as the connection from the Gulf is maintained, I think we have a shot. By the way for those interested, here is my totals map. Still have a hole in portions of NC, but not as bad as some of the models would suggest. High snowfall ratios should help us out too! Looks good Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 If anybody wants to see how much wetter the RUC trended for ms/al/tn in just 3 hours time check this out. This just goes to show how hard it is for models to predict qpf even a few hours before an event. 6 hour precip from the 18z run ending at 03z http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=18&fhour=09¶meter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false 6 hour precip from the 21z run ending at 03z http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=21&fhour=06¶meter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 gfs shows less than an inch across most of n al - hopefully we can get some reports of more than that at least we should be able to see what happens in alabama in the next few hours (ie., whether it weakens or not). that is a nice shield of snow on radar right now. what i wouldnt give to have that thing hold together all the way to the least lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Mississippi snow reports courtesy of ABC3340 in Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I can't help it dude, i'm officially spoiled. I've seen like 45 inches since march of 2009. These 1 to 2 inchers are not as exciting. I'm sure mother nature is going strike us down with another 5 year period of winter hell now that i said that. You are fortunuate to be just north of the Mecklenburg County Snow Triangle! 20 miles SE of Hickory not even 1/4 of that amount during the same period of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 the radar continues to look good and so far the band is holding together well. I was expecting to see a big downward trend in Miss. but so far that isn't happening, and the latest RUC maintains the precip pretty strongly and in tact as the front moves into Ga and the Carolinas and eastern TN tonight. And considering its playing catchup somewhat too, its likely underdone imo. For Ga and eastern TN I'm certain its underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 RUC is showing a nice snow. Boy, I am definitely ready for a surprise. Those people in Arkansas who got 2'+, just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 the radar continues to look good and so far the band is holding together well. I was expecting to see a big downward trend in Miss. but so far that isn't happening, and the latest RUC maintains the precip pretty strongly and in tact as the front moves into Ga and the Carolinas and eastern TN tonight. And considering its playing catchup somewhat too, its likely underdone imo. For Ga and eastern TN I'm certain its underdone. That's some good news. Hoping for the best here in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 You are fortunuate to be just north of the Mecklenburg County Snow Triangle! 20 miles SE of Hickory not even 1/4 of that amount during the same period of time! . I had 9.5" in March 09, then last Winter brought about 2" of snow/sleet in Dec 2010, 3" in Jan, 3" in Feb and so far this Winter 9", so thats a total of 26.5". I know CLT missed the Dec 2010 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The Hi-Res WRF which I have used the past 6 years for winter weather events has finally failed me. It's not even picking up the snow into TN/KY. Models are watching a different storm on Pluto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 RUC is showing a nice snow. Boy, I am definitely ready for a surprise. Those people in Arkansas who got 2'+, just wow! Not for the western piedmont of NC I'm afraid. So yes it would certainly be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Guys, I know this isn't anything like the X-MAS storm or even the Jan. storm but, the disco has been really awesome. One of the most informative I have ever read. Just wanted to say thanks to all that take the time to provide insight & share opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Man I'm confused today. I usually see more agreement. If I look at the maps from Matthew East, Raleigh, Phil, FFC, there is a lot of difference esp as I'm concerned in N. GA. Seems like there are two camps. One camp has progressively more accumulation as you go N in GA, probably due to surface temps and the ability for the snow to stick, but the other camp shows the dry slot in NE GA with more snow to the NW and to the SE. Gonna be interesting. This has been fun to track and no matter what happens I don't think anyone should be considered a bust (except in ARK where the forecast was around 4 inches and they got 2 feet). There was discussion about the difference between small variations of snow, like one inch, but I am happy just that I can be informed probably a week out that there is a chance for something/anything, and then seeing that storm come through that path for the most part. I think we are too hard on everyone. I learned my lesson one time when my forecast was for rain and I wound up with 5 inches, and someone came on from FFC and called me out. And I have to admit they were correct. There is a real fine line sometimes. Not to mention that someone can complain about their forecast was for 2 and they got 4, when you can see several inches in variation in just a few miles, due to local factors. Heck I even saw where a plane caused a cloud hole that made it drop about 2 inches of snow in about a 5 X 20 mile stretch. I know I should back that up with a link but if someone tries to bust me I''ll try to find it. Well, thanks for letting me get out my pre-storm post and I'll see yall in the obs thread. Update: I meant to put this in the banter thread, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Latest RUC looks decent. The radar actually looks better than I thought it would. Hope it holds together and we get a little surprise. BMX seems to think it might happen. I think 1-3" is a good call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 gfs shows less than an inch across most of n al - hopefully we can get some reports of more than that at least we should be able to see what happens in alabama in the next few hours (ie., whether it weakens or not). that is a nice shield of snow on radar right now. what i wouldnt give to have that thing hold together all the way to the least lol WSBTV just said tupelo is getting 1"/ hour rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Just talked to my grandfather im Starkville , MS and told him to look out the window. Weather channel said they were only suppose to get an inch. My aunt said they already have 1.5. They upped our chance of snow to 60% here in Rehoboth Beach, DE. http://www.gameday.msstate.edu/webcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 In the Dec 2009 event in Hickory, I picked up 9.5 inches of snow and sleet. During the 2003 storm, forecasters said 2-4 inches of snow and we ended up with 10 inches of snow due to an upper level low. Tonight, I think we will pick up around an inch of snow in Hickory; however, I would not be shocked to see 2-4 inches of snow in the morning. The 2-4 inches though would be highly unlikely; however, I guess it is possible with this crazy set up we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Starkville could do much better than an inch. Just talked to my grandfather im Starkville , MS and told him to look out the window. Weather channel said they were only suppose to get an inch. My aunt said they already have 1.5. They upped our chance of snow to 60% here in Rehoboth Beach, DE. http://www.gameday.m....edu/webcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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