Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 it is certainly hard to ignore that most guidance is very light with qpf for eastern ga and the carolinas. this is a situation where 50 miles can make a huge difference west to east. if it can hold together just a little longer into ga, then e ga and the upstate may see some snow. if it weakens 50 miles to the west, most of us in n c ga to the east (except far east) carolinas will be screwed. its pathetic when we are hoping and gasping for a simple .10-.15" of qpf lol lol Isn't that the truth but it's even funnier when you think about the fact we are all trying to nail down precip totals down to the hundredths of an inch. That's a pretty small target lol This is one case where I'm a little happier (for the moment) that I'm south of you since the models have me closer to the better moisture with most guidance showing between 0.10 to 0.25 here. The exception being the rgem showing close to 0.40. But this is one of those cases where you just don't know until it happens because a lot depends on mesoscale effects that the models can only generally pick up on but you won't really know until it materializes. People within these bands will be happy but 25 to 50 miles miles away it could be dry as you said. So although I'm supposed to be in a better spot right now, I could be screwed in any direction. I have a bad feeling that the best band will setup about 25 to 30 miles south of me and down toward i-20 since a lot of the models have been showing that. That would suck to be so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Consider this... the RUC has pretty much no measurable snow falling a Bowling Green, KY until 5pm this evening... they have been getting moderate to heavy snow the last 2-3 hours and have already picked up .06" precip... and the 19z RUC only had them getting .074" total. Nashville is about to get slammed next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 There is already a very thick mid level cloud deck with hints of some low level cloudiness. Indeed radar is already picking up virga out of these clouds. I tell you I've seen some weird things happen here when there is a lee trough located ahead of the cold front. Usually more precip, rather than the opposite, so we'll see. I'm noticing the RH on the RUC is having problems, and not lining up with reality right now in Miss, Al, Tn area at all, but I haven't been following the simulated reflectivites on this. Its an intriguing setup and I'll follow it just for the sheer fun of learning and seeing how it evolves. Its similar to a cold frontal passage, but one thats got a much better tap than the models showed,a nd the interplay of the dynamics, with the jet overhead Tn. Valley and a still strong 5h vort coming into Arkansas as we speak, so I'm almost positive we're going to see some totals going up for Ala, GA, eastern TN and most of SC. The least certain spot for me is western NC, just east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 lol Isn't that the truth but it's even funnier when you think about the fact we are all trying to nail down precip totals down to the hundredths of an inch. That's a pretty small target lol This is one case where I'm a little happier (for the moment) that I'm south of you since the models have me closer to the better moisture with most guidance showing between 0.10 to 0.25 here. The exception being the rgem showing close to 0.40. But this is one of those cases where you just don't know until it happens because a lot depends on mesoscale effects that the models can only generally pick up on but you won't really know until it materializes. People within these bands will be happy but 25 to 50 miles miles away it could be dry as you said. So although I'm supposed to be in a better spot right now, I could be screwed in any direction. I have a bad feeling that the best band will setup about 25 to 30 miles south of me and down toward i-20 since a lot of the models have been showing that. That would suck to be so close. i guess thats what makes it interesting (small variations)....sometimes we still wont know til its upon us. i am thinking that the heavier amounts are also probably going to be just south of mby....i just hope a lot of us can get at least an inch or two (giving a lot of n ga, at least, snow in all three winters months!) it does suck to be so close and just miss out, and i am afraid thats going to be the case for some of us in the se tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 http://www.theweathe.../habyhints/129/ I have seen some impressive snows in the CLT area thanks to the Lee side disturbances. I think we had one storm in 2002 or 2003 which they were calling for 2" and we ended up with 8-10". Robert or someone can chime in and correct me on most of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Tennessee snow reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think a general 1-2 across NC is a good forecast. I have a feeling the areas that see the better moisture down-east may have boundary layer issues to negate it. These types of storms bore me now for some reason after the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I have seen some impressive snows in the CLT area thanks to the Lee side disturbances. I think we had one storm in 2002 or 2003 which they were calling for 2" and we ended up with 8-10". Robert or someone can chime in and correct me on most of this. Yeah Jan 2003. Huge surprise, I wouldn't go there yet.LOL. But a couple times this year ahead of cold fronts there was a lee trough that spawned a meso low in Rutherford County that clipped part of the foothills with up to 2" of surprise snow. I always think its neat to watch unfold. Both were similar to this, but this is slightly different. One thing I've yet to see is a weakening trend on precip in Miss. like the models called for. In fact, looking at radars there it seems to be Increasing. I think most of the models are out of touch with reality on this one so far, but I'm not saying it won't be decaying but it sure is taking a while to do so as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 These types of storms bore me now for some reason after the last two years. Sounds like Ji is channeling through HKYwx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Consider this... the RUC has pretty much no measurable snow falling a Bowling Green, KY until 5pm this evening... they have been getting moderate to heavy snow the last 2-3 hours and have already picked up .06" precip... and the 19z RUC only had them getting .074" total. Nashville is about to get slammetd next! Define slammed......since I happen to be in route to BNA....arriving at 6:30. I dont call 2 inches being slammed. You think more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeah Jan 2003. Huge surprise, I wouldn't go there yet.LOL. But a couple times this year ahead of cold fronts there was a lee trough that spawned a meso low in Rutherford County that clipped part of the foothills with up to 2" of surprise snow. I always think its neat to watch unfold. Both were similar to this, but this is slightly different. One thing I've yet to see is a weakening trend on precip in Miss. like the models called for. In fact, looking at radars there it seems to be Increasing. I think most of the models are out of touch with reality on this one so far, but I'm not saying it won't be decaying but it sure is taking a while to do so as of yet. That is why you have the RED TAG my friend. I think all of this in my mind, but cannot relay it into words. Looking at the radar and seeing the heavy returns, with the lift taking place, then extrapolating this to our neck of the woods is giving me a warmer fuzzy that we may see more along the lines of 1-2" instead of a 1/2" or less. Tonight will be fun to track and learn regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 RPM model shows what other models have been showing, but now the RUC is more bullish. Can't wait for this storm to be done with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sounds like Ji is channeling through HKYwx.. I can't help it dude, i'm officially spoiled. I've seen like 45 inches since march of 2009. These 1 to 2 inchers are not as exciting. I'm sure mother nature is going strike us down with another 5 year period of winter hell now that i said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Lookng at radar trends, I notice precip breaking out in central SC and the coast. Wondering if that low pressure is trying to form closer to the coast and further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I hate to say it but Lookout said yesterday it would look great on radar and then it would just die out...which might still happen; not trying to get my hopes up too much but it looks like this could be a little surprise for us in WNC. I'll be happy with 1-2 if we can squeeze it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Latest RUC says FAIL! not even 0.1 for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 RPM model shows what other models have been showing, but now the RUC is more bullish. Can't wait for this storm to be done with. Gotta love that donut hole over our area. There's like an invisible force field there or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I agree. To put this into perspective, the entire year's avg. snowfall for KATL is only 2" and the median is only 0.9" for the period 1930-2010. Some recent years: 2001 0.1" 2002 4.6" 2003 Trace 2004 3.0" 2005 0.5" 2006 Trace 2007 0.1" 2008 1.4" 2009 4.2" 2010 6.8" 2011 4.4"+ You can see how much 2009-11 stick out. KATL has received 15.4" for those three years, combined, and 2011, of course, is far from over. Going back to 1880, the only other heavier S/IP three year periods were the 28.9" of 1893-5, the ~22" of 1884-6, the 19.3" of 1982-4, and the 15.9" of 1934-6. After 2009-11's 15.4"+ comes the 14.1" of 1991-3. I'm astonished that each year has at least a trace. I've often though that 1 minute of sleet I see in Nov and nothing else for the rest of the winter didn't count for anything. Just points out how patchy snow/ip/z fall is in Ga. from Macon up. I really think we need you to make a push with one of the schools for an active archive of county specific spotter maps like Carolina has We have good schools like they do, just need a persuasive climo man such as yourself to help us get an invaluable tool in our quest for the perfect storm You have my vote! Could you (or who ever reads this) look next time at the HRRR Vertically Intergrated Liquid map and tell me if the color streaming in across old Mexico is indicative of the clouds in the same region on vapor loop bringing juice to the party? The lift seems good in the Texas bend of the gulf, and the lifted condensation seem good over old Mexico...but, dang it, I'm color blind and all these danged maps are color coded and I have to intuit stuff. I'm asking if my understanding of those maps is that the clouds on the vapor loop in Mexico are bringing extra moisture? Earlier they looked to be coming late, but now it is looking better. Thanks, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Define slammed......since I happen to be in route to BNA....arriving at 6:30. I dont call 2 inches being slammed. You think more? They might pick up 2" in the next 2 Hours... this is a potent band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 RPM model shows what other models have been showing, but now the RUC is more bullish. Can't wait for this storm to be done with. that is, well, i cant type what i am thinking and saying after seeing that They might pick up 2" in the next 2 Hours... this is a potent band! i would certainly qualify 2" in 2 hours as getting slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well I know it's useless but the 18z is slightly wetter for everyone minus the eastern sections it looks like. Actually never mind looking at accum qpf it's drier for everyone. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 They might pick up 2" in the next 2 Hours... this is a potent band! Report from a poster on Accuweather says roads already covered. Been snowing for ~45 or so minutes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 SPC's new map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Define slammed......since I happen to be in route to BNA....arriving at 6:30. I dont call 2 inches being slammed. You think more? Phil is right, Nashville slammed! http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvnash/cam74.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 With the Jet streaking overhead, I wouldn't be surprised to see this perhaps, just maybe, intensify a tad. Definitely not as weak as any of the models predicted at this time of the day. Report of snow in Jasper, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Phil is right, Nashville slammed! http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/cctv/cctvnash/cam74.asp wow, what i wouldnt give to see that here too bad this isnt scheduled to come in during the dawnish time...that way i could sleep and get up, rather than keep watching the radar waiting for the most likely inevitable weakening in the precip shield once it gets to n central ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Check out the AFD from NWS-GSP. This snippet offers some logic to what we are seeing on the radar (will help a lot of people understand what is transpiring on the radar -myself included) and how they feel the QPF is underestimated by the Forecast models. They actually increased our totals up an inch or so. Burger will like this: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE LATE MORNING UPDATE...AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE VALID TIME OR ORIENTATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A MODESTLY WELL ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF PCPN EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO SRN KY. THIS LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK A LITTLE FASTER. OVERALL...I LIKE THE SREF MASS FIELDS AND QPF FOR THE EVENT. THE NAM IS PICKING UP BETTER ON THE H7 FRONTOGENESIS THAN THE GFS. IT DID THE SAME THING BACK DURING THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN EARLY JANUARY. SO WHILE I THINK IT/S QPF IS UNDERDONE...I LIKE IT/S FORCING AS THERE ARE ACTIVE SNOWBANDS NOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF AR AND WRN TN. IT BRINGS THIS FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG 250MB JET...INTO THE NC MTNS A LITTLE AFTER 00 UTC...AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM 03-09 UTC. PCPN SHOULD THEN BE WELL EAST OF THE FA BY 12 UTC. THE LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNGLIDE...SO WE WILL HAVE TO RELY PRIMARILY ON MID LEVEL FORCING FOR THE EVENT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SW NC MTNS AND THE MTNS OF NE GA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID THE SNOWFALL. I HAVE A LITTLE OVER TWO INCHES IN THESE AREAS. I HAVE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL PASS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT...THE SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS ACTUALLY SHOW A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL UP OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER MORE QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW THAN OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THAT/S WHY I END UP WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FA. IF A HEAVY ENOUGH SNOW BAND WHERE TO DEVELOP UNDER THE BETTER FORCING...THEN TOTALS COULD BE AN INCH OR SO HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well they already have Richmond county, NC schools on a 2 hour delay for tomorrow. I'm guessing 1-2 inches for me here in rockingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well I know it's useless but the 18z is slightly wetter for everyone minus the eastern sections it looks like. Actually never mind looking at accum qpf it's drier for everyone. Sheesh. Dude...the dynamics with this are looking better by the minute. I BET you will be pleasantly surprised come 3:00am this morning and on with an inch of snow on the ground (hopefully more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Check out the AFD from NWS-GSP. This snippet offers some logic to what we are seeing on the radar (will help a lot of people understand what is transpiring on the radar -myself included) and how they feel the QPF is underestimated by the Forecast models. They actually increased our totals up an inch or so. Burger will like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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