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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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BMX sounds more optimistic than FFC. Winter Storm Watch issued for much of Central Alabama for Wednesday night.

Reading their discussion, they're only calling for up to 2" it seems, about right seeing as AL looks to do better than GA. FFC's call seems reasonable at this point for our area.

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I have not been contributing much on this one but of course as we get closer it is looking more and more like the February of FAIL may hold true at this point. Even RAH is one step away from taking snow out of the forecast all together.

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Reading their discussion, they're only calling for up to 2" it seems, about right seeing as AL looks to do better than GA. FFC's call seems reasonable at this point for our area.

But it is interesting that the Watch extends all the way to the GA border, only 50-60 miles from Atlanta. You would think that if up to 2 inches is possible along the GA border, that area could extend into W and NW GA.

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But it is interesting that the Watch extends all the way to the GA border, only 50-60 miles from Atlanta. You would think that if up to 2 inches is possible along the GA border, that area could extend into W and NW GA.

You will probably see adjustments all over the place today...as the short range models come into play....sit back and hold tight! This is just a starting point.

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At this point, I'm watching RUC, radar, and mesoanalysis maps. I mean, which model do you REALLY trust right now??? The low is sitting out over CO so it's easy to see now, easy to watch it's trends.

I'll get my info from what's actually happening and probably do a better job than the models at this point. They might have gotten us to this point in time but what a friggin roller coaster ride.

But I'm most certainly not giving up... I think there will still be plenty of action to come for some of us. And of course... I could be wrong! lightning.gif

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ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says 1-3 inches for the entire northern half of Alabama, with accumulations in excess of 3 inches possible in East AL near the Georgia border. Am I missing something here ? I thought accumulations would be less as you go further east. Their snowfall map also shows 1-3 inches for many areas north of I-20 in Georgia, mainly northwest of Atlanta.

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This is a little OT but 6z GFS is limiting our warm up early next week at least for the NC folks. Monday into Tuesday looks like a clipper pushes through to our north sweeping in colder air with a sharp trough stretching from the Greal Lakes SE through NC.

I haven't really been paying attention past this storm so I don't know if this is new or has been showing up the last few runs. I'll be up at Snowshoe Sunday - Wednesday and the GFS did have me at a high of 44 on Tuesday and now it is at 35 and snow with the clipper.

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ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says 1-3 inches for the entire northern half of Alabama, with accumulations in excess of 3 inches possible in East AL near the Georgia border. Am I missing something here ? I thought accumulations would be less as you go further east. Their snowfall map also shows 1-3 inches for many areas north of I-20 in Georgia, mainly northwest of Atlanta.

FFC is ALWAYS slow in catching on, WAY too conservative IMHO. Obviously the snow doesn't stop at the border!

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ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says 1-3 inches for the entire northern half of Alabama, with accumulations in excess of 3 inches possible in East AL near the Georgia border. Am I missing something here ? I thought accumulations would be less as you go further east. Their snowfall map also shows 1-3 inches for many areas north of I-20 in Georgia, mainly northwest of Atlanta.

Lookout mountain always wrings out more moisture so thats why they have the highest up there. They use to not extend the lines into GA that far but all of the GA trolls on their blog pitched a hissy fit and now they started extending them. All I need is .3" to reach 10" for the year. I'm pretty confident I can get that from this storm. If not then we still have a whole month of possibilities. I really wish it would snow this time to soften the ground for me. I have to dig a bunch of post holes on Saturday.

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FFC is ALWAYS slow in catching on, WAY too conservative IMHO. Obviously the snow doesn't stop at the border!

I disagree, with the GFS/NAM showing little to nothing and the other models showing 1", at best 2" they're being prudent at the moment. This winter they've been having more trouble with last minute trends, so we'll see how they do Wed morning if the models change dramatically.

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Would have to ask Matthew East, but I assume he was talking about the NC/SC area as this is where he forecasts for..

That map is the most aggressive out of all the maps for the Carolinas ? Because for Dallas it seems like it's one of the least aggressive maps I've seen. I'd like that map to verify but I'm not buying the 2-4" in Oklahoma.

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