DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 BMX sounds more optimistic than FFC. Winter Storm Watch issued for much of Central Alabama for Wednesday night. Reading their discussion, they're only calling for up to 2" it seems, about right seeing as AL looks to do better than GA. FFC's call seems reasonable at this point for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This looks pretty good to me ! For the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I have not been contributing much on this one but of course as we get closer it is looking more and more like the February of FAIL may hold true at this point. Even RAH is one step away from taking snow out of the forecast all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Reading their discussion, they're only calling for up to 2" it seems, about right seeing as AL looks to do better than GA. FFC's call seems reasonable at this point for our area. But it is interesting that the Watch extends all the way to the GA border, only 50-60 miles from Atlanta. You would think that if up to 2 inches is possible along the GA border, that area could extend into W and NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 But it is interesting that the Watch extends all the way to the GA border, only 50-60 miles from Atlanta. You would think that if up to 2 inches is possible along the GA border, that area could extend into W and NW GA. You will probably see adjustments all over the place today...as the short range models come into play....sit back and hold tight! This is just a starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You will probably see adjustments all over the place today...as the short range models come into play....sit back and hold tight! This is just a starting point. Funny how the Atlanta news isnt mentioning the Winter Weather Watch for their viewing area in East Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 At this point, I'm watching RUC, radar, and mesoanalysis maps. I mean, which model do you REALLY trust right now??? The low is sitting out over CO so it's easy to see now, easy to watch it's trends. I'll get my info from what's actually happening and probably do a better job than the models at this point. They might have gotten us to this point in time but what a friggin roller coaster ride. But I'm most certainly not giving up... I think there will still be plenty of action to come for some of us. And of course... I could be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says 1-3 inches for the entire northern half of Alabama, with accumulations in excess of 3 inches possible in East AL near the Georgia border. Am I missing something here ? I thought accumulations would be less as you go further east. Their snowfall map also shows 1-3 inches for many areas north of I-20 in Georgia, mainly northwest of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is a little OT but 6z GFS is limiting our warm up early next week at least for the NC folks. Monday into Tuesday looks like a clipper pushes through to our north sweeping in colder air with a sharp trough stretching from the Greal Lakes SE through NC. I haven't really been paying attention past this storm so I don't know if this is new or has been showing up the last few runs. I'll be up at Snowshoe Sunday - Wednesday and the GFS did have me at a high of 44 on Tuesday and now it is at 35 and snow with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Respectable little dusting in the NC High Country last night. Good to see the ground white again ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says 1-3 inches for the entire northern half of Alabama, with accumulations in excess of 3 inches possible in East AL near the Georgia border. Am I missing something here ? I thought accumulations would be less as you go further east. Their snowfall map also shows 1-3 inches for many areas north of I-20 in Georgia, mainly northwest of Atlanta. FFC is ALWAYS slow in catching on, WAY too conservative IMHO. Obviously the snow doesn't stop at the border! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 ABC 33/40 in Birmingham says 1-3 inches for the entire northern half of Alabama, with accumulations in excess of 3 inches possible in East AL near the Georgia border. Am I missing something here ? I thought accumulations would be less as you go further east. Their snowfall map also shows 1-3 inches for many areas north of I-20 in Georgia, mainly northwest of Atlanta. Lookout mountain always wrings out more moisture so thats why they have the highest up there. They use to not extend the lines into GA that far but all of the GA trolls on their blog pitched a hissy fit and now they started extending them. All I need is .3" to reach 10" for the year. I'm pretty confident I can get that from this storm. If not then we still have a whole month of possibilities. I really wish it would snow this time to soften the ground for me. I have to dig a bunch of post holes on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 FFC is ALWAYS slow in catching on, WAY too conservative IMHO. Obviously the snow doesn't stop at the border! I disagree, with the GFS/NAM showing little to nothing and the other models showing 1", at best 2" they're being prudent at the moment. This winter they've been having more trouble with last minute trends, so we'll see how they do Wed morning if the models change dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It seems like the models are speeding up this system. I wouldnt be surprised if the snow ends in Atlanta by 4 or 5am, with the heaviest around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Since everything else looks bad, does the latest RUC still look good with the energy staying intact like it did last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It seems like the models are speeding up this system. I wouldnt be surprised if the snow ends in Atlanta by 4 or 5am, with the heaviest around midnight. That would actually be perfect for you guys if you're looking to get the most snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm not too familiar with the RUC but this looks good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just a little further south please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 FWIW, RGEM is depicting up to 4" along I-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's the HPC probability map Well, the map doesn't show up so here's the link... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 the hi-res reflective radar at 48hrs from this morning...looks like you'd see some interacction with the coastal development, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/ Snowing pretty good at Sugar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's the HPC probability map Well, the map doesn't show up so here's the link... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Wow, not bad. At least a 50% chance of 1"+ the entire NW quadrant of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 per Matt East via FB he also added... "Let me caution that this model is about the most aggressive one out there this morning with snow output....so take with a mountain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That map is the most aggressive out of all the maps for the Carolinas ? Because for Dallas it seems like it's one of the least aggressive maps I've seen. I'd like that map to verify but I'm not buying the 2-4" in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That map is the most aggressive out of all the maps for the Carolinas ? Because for Dallas it seems like it's one of the least aggressive maps I've seen. Yes for NC it's the most aggressive. TBH it seems to be lining up more with the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Would have to ask Matthew East, but I assume he was talking about the NC/SC area as this is where he forecasts for.. That map is the most aggressive out of all the maps for the Carolinas ? Because for Dallas it seems like it's one of the least aggressive maps I've seen. I'd like that map to verify but I'm not buying the 2-4" in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 per Matt East via FB he also added... "Let me caution that this model is about the most aggressive one out there this morning with snow output....so take with a mountain of salt. I'm starting to get that good feeling we have a surprise on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm starting to get that good feeling we have a surprise on our hands Shhh. Don't jinx us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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