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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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Not that this necessarily has a bearing on how strong the precip will be when it gets here- this area had temps in the teens so the ratios were very high and of course the system weakens, but the area around Rogers, AR has received 20-25 ", the state record for one storm us 24" :snowman:

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Not that this necessarily has a bearing on how strong the precip will be when it gets here- this area had temps in the teens so the ratios were very high and of course the system weakens, but the area around Rogers, AR has received 20-25 ", the state record for one storm us 24" :snowman:

Yeah Arkansas was in the perfect setup for this for days. The 5H is rounding the bend and feeding energy over a nearly stalled inverted trough, the trough is at its max intensity and theres good moisture flux in very cold air, all ingredients to blast them. If that set up had been further east, someone in the Southeast would have been dumped on nicely. Still its pretty healthy looking for the Southeast in general over the next 18 hours so some areas are going to do ok with this, just not as cold or with those ratios.

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Considering all the warm forecasts for this winter, I doubt anyone expected what we have gotten. No matter what happens beyond this point, this winter was a major win.

It would be nice to get 2 inches out of this, pushing my season total to around 15 inches.

One thing about this system that folks should keep in mind is it IS going to look impressive on radar when it's in the southern plains. Snow should be quite widespread and it's going to look like we are going to be in for a good one. But if the models are right, it's going to decrease significantly once it gets to MS/AL. Reason I mention this is it's going to get folks excited seeing it but everyone should keep their expectations in check when seeing it.

quoted for truth...temper those expectations.

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I have been wondering if surface temps might cause issues in alabama especially. They won't have much time to cool off, if it all, before precip starts. In georgia though, we should have a number of hours to cool off so it won't be so much of an issue here. In fact, gfs drops temps to below freezing in many areas by 0z before the clouds roll in and move temps up a couple of degrees. There might be a very brief period of a mix or even sprinkles but I wouldn't expect it to last long. But highs today were expected to get well into the 40s so no surprises so far.

Yeah, 45 here and the clouds are getting in pretty good. Just spotty sun now. Be interesting to see if they break up for a while later. It'll jump down quick after 6 but I expect to see some sleet, and as you know, I'd prefer more than less. T

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I'm surprised I'm in an advisory. Advisory level here is at least two inches.

In their discussion GSP stated that they did now believe advisory snow accumulations would be reached, but issued one anyway due to impact on the public, from slick roads. However if we receive nothing more than light snow roads should not be that much of a problem (especially treated ones) due to full sunshine and temperatures in the low 40's today. If we can hold off on cloud cover for a little while after sunset and get a little radiational cooling it will be a different story.

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Not that this necessarily has a bearing on how strong the precip will be when it gets here- this area had temps in the teens so the ratios were very high and of course the system weakens, but the area around Rogers, AR has received 20-25 ", the state record for one storm us 24" :snowman:

As you say, may not mean much for our area, but, my inner weanie does take inspiration from upstream reports of this magnitude. If upstream was just seeing piddling snows compared to what was progged, surely we would all be thinking meh.

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Not that this necessarily has a bearing on how strong the precip will be when it gets here- this area had temps in the teens so the ratios were very high and of course the system weakens, but the area around Rogers, AR has received 20-25 ", the state record for one storm us 24" :snowman:

Amazing, what were the initial forecasts for out there?

Last hour Little Rock had heavy snow with 1/16 of a mile visibility. Damn impressive.

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There is the increase of moisture I have been looking for....but *sigh* no flizzard :(

12Z GFS CAE

110210/0300Z 15 VRB02KT 41.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110210/0600Z 18 02005KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/0900Z 21 01003KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/1200Z 24 35007KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

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There is the increase of moisture I have been looking for....but *sigh* no flizzard :(

12Z GFS CAE

110210/0300Z 15 VRB02KT 41.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110210/0600Z 18 02005KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/0900Z 21 01003KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/1200Z 24 35007KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

What is the link to these numbers?

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Yeah Arkansas was in the perfect setup for this for days. The 5H is rounding the bend and feeding energy over a nearly stalled inverted trough, the trough is at its max intensity and theres good moisture flux in very cold air, all ingredients to blast them. If that set up had been further east, someone in the Southeast would have been dumped on nicely. Still its pretty healthy looking for the Southeast in general over the next 18 hours so some areas are going to do ok with this, just not as cold or with those ratios.

Yeah, too bad that trough axis hasn't been planted about 300-400 miles further east. Would have been an exciting period for the SE.

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There is the increase of moisture I have been looking for....but *sigh* no flizzard :(

12Z GFS CAE

110210/0300Z 15 VRB02KT 41.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110210/0600Z 18 02005KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/0900Z 21 01003KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.118|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/1200Z 24 35007KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.059|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

I think you may get your flizzard and then some after midnight. After midnight from ATL to AHN and down to near MCN and CSG in between that area the RUC is hitting pretty hard with good rates and temps cold enough. If it holds together for your area you would do ok with a couple inchest maybe, but its a huge question mark as to how quickly it fades out, if any really. Looks like the models are further north and holder on to the energy and moisture for much longer than thought, surprise!

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What is the ling to these numbers?

Here ya go... :)

http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_kcae.dat

or

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html

I think you may get your flizzard and then some after midnight. After midnight from ATL to AHN and down to near MCN and CSG in between that area the RUC is hitting pretty hard with good rates and temps cold enough. If it holds together for your area you would do ok with a couple inchest maybe, but its a huge question mark as to how quickly it fades out, if any really. Looks like the models are further north and holder on to the energy and moisture for much longer than thought, surprise!

You have continued to give me hope :wub: Not expecting much, but would like to see the flakes fly for just a couple of hrs anyway ^_^

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Wow, 12z Euro stating what event for the Coastal Plain, even HAT gets only 0.27", PGV 0.08", RWI 0.06", RDU 0.06", FAY 0.08" and ILM 0.11" Kind of expected it to be in the 3/10" ballpark here, inline with the other guidance, and somewhat concerning it went so dry, not sure what happened...

This is out of the Euro's wheelhouse at this point.

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This is out of the Euro's wheelhouse at this point.

Yeah, but it definitely is odd and the EC handled our failed clipper a couple months back pretty good in the near term showing a non-event, while the American guidance was in the 1/4" ballpark. I don't see how it could be off by as much as 1/2" here, sorry, but it gives me pause for sure.

Hey Guys got a weenie question for you. I have been lurking over on the Central/Western forum and they post a model called HRRR. What model is this & how accurate is it? I don't think I have seen it on our forum. Thanks, Don

The HRRR is a 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving atmospheric model, initialized by DFI-fields from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD. (soon to be initialized similarly by the 13km radar-assimilating Rapid Refresh ).

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

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Hey Guys got a weenie question for you. I have been lurking over on the Central/Western forum and they post a model called HRRR. What model is this & how accurate is it? I don't think I have seen it on our forum. Thanks, Don

This is what will replace the RUC sometime in the next year- it is generally more accurate than the RUC as it constantly ingests new data like radar.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

post-357-0-10924900-1297275559.png

post-357-0-27787900-1297275576.png

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Yeah, but it definitely is odd and the EC handled our failed clipper a couple months back pretty good in the near term showing a non-event, while the American guidance was in the 1/4" ballpark. I don't see how it could be off by as much as 1/2" here, sorry, but it gives me pause for sure.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

Yeah we can't discount a model simply on the basis of not liking its results. That gives me pause too but I am not in a position to look right now and see what is behind that output. The question I have is how did it handle this system so far?

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Yeah, but it definitely is odd and the EC handled our failed clipper a couple months back pretty good in the near term showing a non-event, while the American guidance was in the 1/4" ballpark. I don't see how it could be off by as much as 1/2" here, sorry, but it gives me pause for sure.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

For sure. The GFS is all alone in this regards (0.5" QPF with it's ENS), the OP is showing 0.25" for RDU which is a little higher than RGEM/GEM/UKIE which all show roughly 0.1". The NAM/EURO are basically dry.

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I think all this snow this winter has us spoiled. Normally a 2 inch event would be a major deal in Georgia.

I agree. To put this into perspective, the entire year's avg. snowfall for KATL is only 2" and the median is only 0.9" for the period 1930-2010.

Some recent years:

2001 0.1"

2002 4.6"

2003 Trace

2004 3.0"

2005 0.5"

2006 Trace

2007 0.1"

2008 1.4"

2009 4.2"

2010 6.8"

2011 4.4"+

You can see how much 2009-11 stick out. KATL has received 15.4" for those three years, combined, and 2011, of course, is far from over. Going back to 1880, the only other heavier S/IP three year periods were the 28.9" of 1893-5, the ~22" of 1884-6, the 19.3" of 1982-4, and the 15.9" of 1934-6. After 2009-11's 15.4"+ comes the 14.1" of 1991-3.

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BMX thinking about increasing totals.

LOOKING AT TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE CHARTS...I WOULD

BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IF WE UPPED OUR SNOW TOTALS A BIT FOR OUR

NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...

THAT HIT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD HONEST UPPERCUT. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY

LAG AT ALL BETWEEN THE TIME THE STEADY SNOW STARTS FALLING AND THE

TIME IT STARTS ACCUMULATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES NOTED IN ARKANSAS. AND WHILE I DON`T

NECESSARILY EXPECT THE TOTALS THEY HAVE GOTTEN/ARE GETTING TO BE

EQUALED HERE...I GET A SENSE THAT THE SYSTEM IS OUTPERFORMING

PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.WILL HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBSITE AND A NEW WSW TEXT PRODUCT

OUT WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS UPDATE DOES NOT CHANGE THE WSW AREA AT

ALL...JUST REFINES THE EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS.

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