superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 'Bout time for RAH to put some of its CWA under some sort of advisory, I'd think? I see GSP already has CLT under one and they're not expected to get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 In terms of sensible weather, this argument between ffc/bmx is silly. Part of the discussion was based on Candyman's area where the call is "around 2" on the AL side and "less than 1/2" on the GA side. It may seem silly, but if you live down here where 2" is a big deal, and see the same differences storm after storm, it becomes more than silly. Especially if yo uare in Candyman's shoes. I am beginning to feel cautiously optimistic that I may be in a good spot for 2"+ I'm thinking I-20 south may be where the best snows set up in GA. Hoping the moisture can hold together. What do you think Lookout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Very interesting to see the RUC coming in with a wetter solution as this thing moves east. Don't think any of the models showed 2 feet in places in Arkansas. In fact, did any of them show more than 14"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 15Z WSI RPM, which was one of the more gung-ho models, now has less than one inch for all of NE and NC GA and points east- T in ATL, NE GA and upstate SC. Winners, northern TN up the Apps to southern WV- 2-3". 1-3" southern Apps and NE NC into southeast VA. Narrow strip of 1" from La Grange GA to between GSP and CAE to CLT to INT into central VA. Kinda messy. Positive signs the RGEM and 9Z SREF- hope the 15Z SREF holds serve. Just because AR is getting creamed does not mean it cannot fall apart like the models are saying- question is how fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Very interesting to see the RUC coming in with a wetter solution as this thing moves east. Don't think any of the models showed 2 feet in places in Arkansas. In fact, did any of them show more than 14"? the NAM and Euro had .75" pockets in Ok and Ark for numerous runs, and considering how cold it is, I'm not not surprised that translated into 12" amounts and more. I didn't account for that in my map though sadly. Some areas of western TN and northern half of Miss. are going to take a big hit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Are we still looking at 15:1-18:1 ratios in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 West Memphis now reporting Light Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 WWA issued for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looking forward to seeing nothing here Even under a WWA, I do not think I will see the less than 1" that GSP is calling for. Good luck folks and our eastern brothers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Memphis NWS upping snow totals. 2nd time today. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1033 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011 .DISCUSSION... CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE WARNING AREA AND SNOW TOTALS. ADDED PEMISCOT TO THE WARNING DUE TO THAT HEAVY SNOW BAND EXTENDING EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE KY/MO BORDER. ALSO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF NE AR. POCAHONTAS NOW UP TO AT LEAST 5 INCHES AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVY SNOW BAND IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY...EVEN ON THE ROADS... WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEMPHIS METRO THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Entire state of Arkansas is getting snow much of it heavy. Snow is now crossing the Mississippi. It will be interesting to see how the precip holds up as it moves east. NWS in most of N. Miss calling for 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sounds like things are really changing fast as this system goes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Part of the discussion was based on Candyman's area where the call is "around 2" on the AL side and "less than 1/2" on the GA side. It may seem silly, but if you live down here where 2" is a big deal, and see the same differences storm after storm, it becomes more than silly. Especially if yo uare in Candyman's shoes. I am beginning to feel cautiously optimistic that I may be in a good spot for 2"+ I'm thinking I-20 south may be where the best snows set up in GA. Hoping the moisture can hold together. What do you think Lookout? Sorry but it's simply not that big of a deal. The only reason this seems like a bigger difference than it really is, is because bmx issued a warning vs ffc's advisory. But in terms of sensible weather, there simply is not much difference. Plus People aren't going to freak out anymore over 2 inches than they are over one inch. I wouldn't be surprised to see FFC increase their totals to 1 to 2 inches based on this mornings runs. That's still advisory level snow though. Anywho, the heaviest snow might very well be in central ga. The rgem/canadian certainly think so. However, surface temps might be an issue for a while which really complicates things. In fact, gfs/nam pretty much has it as all rain in places like macon with surface temps in the upper 30s and wetbulb freezing levels at around 2000 feet. The best spot might fall along i-20, or between macon and atlanta/athens in general. This area seems to have the best combo of temps/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm not sure why the latest RUC has rain in the lower upstate to northeast GA. It has rain beginning in ATL and AHN to CAE, and ATL changes over to snow quickly, but it holds rain around AHN to the lower upstate just south of GSP and over to CAE after midnight. Actually has increased the snow in all of western NC and northern GA, so obviously this is a fast changing situation. It takes the snow across Tn and VA then that part fades out, and the precip in Ala, GA and the Carolinas is the main part of the storm around midnight and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 HPC this morning did not think Arkansas would get more than 12". PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 304 AM EST WED FEB 09 2011 VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2011 DAY 1... ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC COAST... STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY. AMPLE GULF INFLOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP FGEN FORCING AND THE STRONG MID LVL DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVIER AMTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN OK THRU AR/NRN LA INTO MS. WITH A DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE PTYPE ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR WHERE A HIGH RISK FOR 4-INCHES/SLGT RISK OF 8-INCHES HAS BEEN INDICATED. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME POST FRONTAL LGT FREEZING RAIN DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. HEAVY SNOW AMTS APPEAR LESS LIKELY FURTHER TO THE E ACROSS THE TN VLY/SOUTHEAST AS THE MID LVL SHTRTWV AND INFLOW FROM GULF ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LWR MS VLY EWD. HOWEVER A RESUGENCE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...THIS TIME OFF OF THE ATL...INTERACTING ONCE AGAIN WITH DEEP FGEN FORCING COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER AMTS NEAR THE NC COAST. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW COULD PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ERN NC...WARRANTING A SLGT RISK FOR 4-INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 What's up fellow weenies...I haven't had a chance to follow this storm closely.What we all know is that at some point the snowfall accumulations should start to decrease in the next 6-12 hours. Maybe Robert can answer this...at what area should we really be looking when it comes actual verification over model predictions? For example, how much is being predicted for NW Mississippi or Southern Tennessee? How much snow would they need to end up getting in order to start having concerns for those down stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looking at the 13Z RUC and comparing it to the 16Z RUC, moisture and relative humidity have gotten deeper and have started to stretch farther north than progged 4 hours ago. With the lastest GFS being the wettest it has given out in days, beginning to wonder if models are playing catch up or dynamics aloft are just being realized from data gathered now that the storm is in the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 50% Lol! Smart A FFC has been spot on with mby for the last two accumulating sn/ip events, as much as I hate to say it. I'm going to have to go with their assessment until such time as they miss low again. Hoping it is tonight as 2 inches would double either of my last storms but 3 or 4 would make me swoon, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sorry but it's simply not that big of a deal. The only reason this seems like a bigger difference than it really is, is because bmx issued a warning vs ffc's advisory. But in terms of sensible weather, there simply is not much difference. Plus People aren't going to freak out anymore over 2 inches than they are over one inch. I wouldn't be surprised to see FFC increase their totals to 1 to 2 inches based on this mornings runs. That's still advisory level snow though. Anywho, the heaviest snow might very well be in central ga. The rgem/canadian certainly think so. However, surface temps might be an issue for a while which really complicates things. In fact, gfs/nam pretty much has it as all rain in places like macon with surface temps in the upper 30s and wetbulb freezing levels at around 2000 feet. The best spot might fall along i-20, or between macon and atlanta/athens in general. This area seems to have the best combo of temps/precip. I'm surprised I'm in an advisory. Advisory level here is at least two inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Part of the discussion was based on Candyman's area where the call is "around 2" on the AL side and "less than 1/2" on the GA side. It may seem silly, but if you live down here where 2" is a big deal, and see the same differences storm after storm, it becomes more than silly. Especially if yo uare in Candyman's shoes. I am beginning to feel cautiously optimistic that I may be in a good spot for 2"+ I'm thinking I-20 south may be where the best snows set up in GA. Hoping the moisture can hold together. What do you think Lookout? HAHA! No worries! I wouldn't want to be in my shoes sometimes either Let's just say that forecasting for this area is extremely fun, yet difficult. I am upping my totals to about an inch of snow along the I85 from Auburn to La Grange and East to just north of the Macon area; and a light dusting for areas just to the north of Columbus. This storm is still looking impressive just 12 hours from impacting West GA/East AL. My friend out in Fort Smith, AR has reported some people calling in 12 to 18 inches of snow! Pretty impressive stuff out there! The moisture shield is staying a little more north, which could translate for some of you in NC of having at least a little bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm not sure why the latest RUC has rain in the lower upstate to northeast GA. It has rain beginning in ATL and AHN to CAE, and ATL changes over to snow quickly, but it holds rain around AHN to the lower upstate just south of GSP and over to CAE after midnight. Actually has increased the snow in all of western NC and northern GA, so obviously this is a fast changing situation. It takes the snow across Tn and VA then that part fades out, and the precip in Ala, GA and the Carolinas is the main part of the storm around midnight and beyond. It's because of it's surface temps and dewpoints, which are WAY off. Ruc is 5 or 6 degrees too high currently with dewpoints. By 18z, it has dewpoints rising to around 30 Then The Ruc has dewpoints rising to above freezing before any precip falls which is incredibly unlikely. meanwhile the gfs and nam have dewpoints about 10 degrees colder than the ruc this evening. But both of those models are still too high right now. Both models showed dewpoints in the low 20s right now when they are actually around 15. So bottom line, it's likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GSP STORM TOTALS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 having a little trouble seeing how eastern NC only comes out of this with 1-3 inches when most models show atleast .5 qpf and the GFS ensemble mean shows 1.00? that would be like 5:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I really do think there will be some surprises here in SE Va... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looking at obs and trends, kinda worried about surface temperatures in the SE. MS/AL/GA are seeing a SW wind and temperatures in the 40s. It might delay the formation of snow across central/eastern MS/AL, thus lowering the snow accumulations. Also, as people stated earlier, snowfall rates are higher in Arkansas due to colder temperatures aloft and at the surface. This is a nowcast situation if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I really do think there will be some surprises here in SE Va... Agreed, looking at the new GFS, and SREF I wouldnt be surprised if someone picked up 3-4 inches Southside. I expect at least a WWA soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 having a little trouble seeing how eastern NC only comes out of this with 1-3 inches when most models show atleast .5 qpf and the GFS ensemble mean shows 1.00? that would be like 5:1 ratios Boundary issues, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 HAHA! No worries! I wouldn't want to be in my shoes sometimes either Let's just say that forecasting for this area is extremely fun, yet difficult. I am upping my totals to about an inch of snow along the I85 from Auburn to La Grange and East to just north of the Macon area; and a light dusting for areas just to the north of Columbus. This storm is still looking impressive just 12 hours from impacting West GA/East AL. My friend out in Fort Smith, AR has reported some people calling in 12 to 18 inches of snow! Pretty impressive stuff out there! The moisture shield is staying a little more north, which could translate for some of you in NC of having at least a little bit of snow. It sure looks good to our west, but I can remember several times over the years that a snowstorm would look great to our west (Arkansas/Miss) only to get choked of it's moisture to the point that we get a sloppy coating here. Of course, I don't think those storms had the muscle that this one is flexing right now. I think Lookout's assesment was very good. Somewhere from I-20 down toward your area could do the best if the temps support all or mostly snow. It will be very interesting to watch as it gets closer. Hopefully, many of us are in for a nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looking at obs and trends, kinda worried about surface temperatures in the SE. MS/AL/GA are seeing a SW wind and temperatures in the 40s. It might delay the formation of snow across central/eastern MS/AL, thus lowering the snow accumulations. Also, as people stated earlier, snowfall rates are higher in Arkansas due to colder temperatures aloft and at the surface. This is a nowcast situation if anything. I have been wondering if surface temps might cause issues in alabama especially. They won't have much time to cool off, if it all, before precip starts. In georgia though, we should have a number of hours to cool off so it won't be so much of an issue here. In fact, gfs drops temps to below freezing in many areas by 0z before the clouds roll in and move temps up a couple of degrees. There might be a very brief period of a mix or even sprinkles but I wouldn't expect it to last long. But highs today were expected to get well into the 40s so no surprises so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The RUC has a 1012 low forming in the Gulf just south of the western Fl. panhandle/Mobile area, maybe 150 miles south. It also has one developing off ILM and heads to off HAT overnight. It actually has increasing uvv's in central al, GA and keeps the snow going near BHM to ATL for a long time, longer than any models have been showing, so thats a good trend for much of Ala and GA even in northern GA. As usual its too light on QPF but has a good period of accum across much of Alabam and GA from 20, north. Coming in after dark and lasting til after midnight is a perfect time for the best poss. accumulations. This run is looking wetter for the Upstate and western NC as well, but it's not showing accum there yet. Its going to be a wait and see on how the obs and radars look tonight to see if we get anything but the trends are alittle bit encouraging here for something besides flurries to almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.