DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 On another note, radar looks impressive back west. Despite seeing this thing weaken as it progresses east, I'm still amazed by some of the accumulations that have already taken place there. I say congrats to the folks over there for cashing in off this event. So far, I haven't observed too much weakening. It's still pretty stout! Plus, at least so far, I like the track that the precip is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It is suppose to. It's sitting a a fairly southern position in Texas so we'll see how that translates into moisture for us. What I want to see if some of those little vortex max's that are causing some of the forcing in Arkansas, can make it to our neck of the woods. So far... I'm pretty optimistic about this system, at least for our area. Things can change as the day goes on so we'll see! So I guess I'm looking at the wrong low that's sitting at 1012 in Mexico...lol...go ahead a flame me, but I've been following that one all night...if it's not the right one, can someone point it out to me and what the pressure is, so I can follow it? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 So far, I haven't observed too much weakening. It's still pretty stout! Plus, at least so far, I like the track that the precip is on. Should've said WHEN it progresses eastward haha but yes it is holding very nicely at the moment. Just unbelievable of how much snow parts of Arkansas has racked up and in such a short amount of time on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hi, Everyone! Long time lurker, first time poster! If ATL is to have more moisture, wouldn't the NC piedmont receive more as well? Perhaps it is more anecdotal than analytic, but the "rule" around here-so I've heard- is if Atlanta gets it, so does the Southern Piedmont. While radar returns and reporting are looking strong, I'm anticipating that the once this thing gets over the Apps, it will die. The expectation is that it will look continually look strong on radar... Please refrain from flaming. I'm genuinely trying to learn the ins and outs of all of this so that I can be a bonafide "Armchair Meteorologist" Hey Julie! Good to see you here and welcome. For the ATL thing, I've seen them get a few good snows while we were left high and dry here so it doesn't always work out. We could get lucky but by all the models it appears that you are correct it will be a quick death for moisture especially once that low forms off the coast and the transfer happens. Hopefully we can get a surprise out of this one but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here's where they sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NO, it's not. This is NOT the Christmas Storm Redux. I'm sorry, but some of you can't seem to see the forest for the trees. This incessant whining about FFC gets old too, especially when their forecast may very well be right. The discussion about FFC may have gotten a little OT, but it waas based on discussion of forecasts that are being put out there from different mets and forecasts NWS. The forecasts vary widely for the same area that is divided only by a state line. The differences seem to be consistant storm to storm year to year. We are <12 hrs. from the storm and still a great deal of uncertainty. CandymanColumbus forecast for both sides of the state and gets night and day info from his 2 NWS offices. This storm is no exception. Sorry you did not care for the discussion, but it did originate from discussing this storm. I view plenty of discussions that do not pertain to MBY as well. I simply move on. If you got 2" on Christmas day (which I did) this could be similar to the Christmas storm. I think 2" for me is a legit "possibility". We shall see. Maybe I will be in the sweet spot for once, If you call getting 2" a sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 SPC MESO: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...FAR NE TX...AR...NRN LA...WRN TN...NW MS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 091603Z - 092200Z SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR...NW MS AND WRN TN. A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SHOULD EXIST FROM FAR NE TX EWD ACROSS FAR NRN LA INTO WCNTRL MS. A LARGE AREA OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ERN OK AND AR LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED SFC TROUGH. EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH SFC WINDS ARE NELY WHICH COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LOCATED IN ERN OK AND NW AR JUST AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX IN NE OK. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS OK INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES BECOMING LIKELY ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM NE TX ENEWD ACROSS FAR NRN LA INTO NCNTRL MS...SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND 32 F IN NCNTRL MS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S F IN THE VICINITY OF SHREVEPORT LA. HOWEVER...NORTH TO NELY SFC WINDS SHOULD ENABLE SFC TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LA AND NCNTRL MS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SUGGESTING RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW. AS SFC TEMPS COOL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW APPEARS LIKELY AND 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES MAY OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The Ark numbers are absolutely ridiculous. Maybe this puppy will over perform here too? I agree too the radar doesnt look that incredible, has to be high ratios due to temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliapalooza Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Welcome aboard Julia! Glad to see you finally signed up. Don't worry though. We have the pros and whatnot that will walk you through everything if you're having trouble understanding something. Btw, check out this link if you haven't done so yet: http://www.americanw...ting-etiquette/ On another note, radar looks impressive back west. Despite seeing this thing weaken as it progresses east, I'm still amazed by some of the accumulations that have already taken place there. I say congrats to the folks over there for cashing in off this event. Thanks, Gaston! So we have seen this system begin to weaken already? Looking out to hour 12, it doesn't seem to be "destroyed" as earlier projections have indicated. Or I am just a complete noob and have no idea what I'm looking at-LOL. Indeed...that is some AMAZING, once in a lifetime totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here's where they sit Thanks Dacula...so it's sitting around 1013/1014....is it on track of where it's going....more north? more south? Just trying to learn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The discussion about FFC may have gotten a little OT, but it waas based on discussion of forecasts that are being put out there from different mets and forecasts NWS. The forecasts vary widely for the same area that is divided only by a state line. The differences seem to be consistant storm to storm year to year. We are <12 hrs. from the storm and still a great deal of uncertainty. CandymanColumbus forecast for both sides of the state and gets night and day info from his 2 NWS offices. This storm is no exception. Sorry you did not care for the discussion, but it did originate from discussing this storm. I view plenty of discussions that do not pertain to MBY as well. I simply move on. If you got 2" on Christmas day (which I did) this could be similar to the Christmas storm. I think 2" for me is a legit "possibility". We shall see. Maybe I will be in the sweet spot for once, If you call getting 2" a sweet spot. BMX is forecasting around 2 inches along the ga border while ffc is forecasting up to an inch. Is ONE inch really that huge of a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Keep in mind surface temps in Arkansas are in the teens, which argues for a bout a 20:1 ratio. most QPF amounts there have been in the 0.5 to 0.75 range so the 10-15 and even higher amounts would make sense. Obviously are ratios will be much less further east as it wont be nearly as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Thanks, Gaston! So we have seen this system begin to weaken already? Looking out to hour 12, it doesn't seem to be "destroyed" as earlier projections have indicated. Or I am just a complete noob and have no idea what I'm looking at-LOL. Indeed...that is some AMAZING, once in a lifetime totals! Well once it starts moving into the SE, it will weaken then but the weenie within me wants this fish to stay hooked longer to reel in the heavier snows here. Let's just keep an eye on radar trends and see but I'm not betting the farm just yet on sudden higher accumulations. Thinking around an inch would be the highest snow total possible for us here in the CLT region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Thanks Raleigh! Looks like RGEM is roughly .25" for RDU too. I would estimate we are in the 7.5 to 10 mm band which is around 0.3 to 0.4 inches QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey Robert, if your around. Remember when we met up at Denny's and you were shocked at the rain we were getting. Is this a similar setup? I can't remember but I thought it had the same route to us and even up until it happened it looked like we were going to get diddly squat. I don't remember that setup, but do remember the heavy rain. I think the further south and east you get from m.b.y. the better chances will be, so your area should be more into the snow than here for sure, as all models have upped that line from just northwest of CAE to right around CLT as far as anything substantial. The RUC shows about the same thing, just quick passing flurries in western NC and esp. the northern Upstate, we're just in about the worst possible spot in relation to the dynamics transfer and proximity to the mtns. I see we have a WWA out now though, so maybe GSP is right on their 1" call for here but I think the better chances for 1" are toward the southwest sections , southern and southeastern sections of the CWA, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliapalooza Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well once it starts moving into the SE, it will weaken then but the weenie within me wants this fish to stay hooked longer to reel in the heavier snows here. Let's just keep an eye on radar trends and see but I'm not betting the farm just yet on sudden higher accumulations. Thinking around an inch would be the highest snow total possible for us here in the CLT region. Yeah...I'm attempting to quell my inner weenie as well. What would actually need to occur for the system to not significantly weaken and transfer its energy to the low off the coast? Is it some convoluted, shot in the dark formula? Then again, anything can happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 BMX is forecasting around 2 inches along the ga border while ffc is forecasting up to an inch. Is ONE inch really that huge of a difference? 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 12z GFS ENS mean is even wetter. Has 0.25" qpf just west of CLT, 0.5" qpf just west of RDU, 0.75" QPF to I-95. Pretty amazing increase from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 robert the moisture looks a lot further north than it was suppose to reach, am i not correct? there is watches and warnings out now for kentucky and virginia I don't remember that setup, but do remember the heavy rain. I think the further south and east you get from m.b.y. the better chances will be, so your area should be more into the snow than here for sure, as all models have upped that line from just northwest of CAE to right around CLT as far as anything substantial. The RUC shows about the same thing, just quick passing flurries in western NC and esp. the northern Upstate, we're just in about the worst possible spot in relation to the dynamics transfer and proximity to the mtns. I see we have a WWA out now though, so maybe GSP is right on their 1" call for here but I think the better chances for 1" are toward the southwest sections , southern and southeastern sections of the CWA, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 According to twitter, local Arkansas news stations are reporting that the National Guard has been called in to assist Arkansas State Police on patrol in Northwest Arkansas to help multiple stranded drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 50% In terms of sensible weather, this argument between ffc/bmx is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow, it has really increased the precip the closer we get to the zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I must admit the latest run of the RUC looks a whole lot better than it did 3 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I don't remember that setup, but do remember the heavy rain. I think the further south and east you get from m.b.y. the better chances will be, so your area should be more into the snow than here for sure, as all models have upped that line from just northwest of CAE to right around CLT as far as anything substantial. The RUC shows about the same thing, just quick passing flurries in western NC and esp. the northern Upstate, we're just in about the worst possible spot in relation to the dynamics transfer and proximity to the mtns. I see we have a WWA out now though, so maybe GSP is right on their 1" call for here but I think the better chances for 1" are toward the southwest sections , southern and southeastern sections of the CWA, but we'll see. Yea I was trying to find it, didn't look to hard but many of us before were saying we only had like .02 and sprinkles and how our side of the mountains always get screwed...then of course about 6 hours later the bottom fell out. Don't think that happens this go round but for some reason I thought it was a very similar setup. I'll go back and try to read through some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow. The 1 inch qpf is starting to creep close to pitt county. Surely this is overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 robert the moisture looks a lot further north than it was suppose to reach, am i not correct? there is watches and warnings out now for kentucky and virginia The RUC had it developing in eastern NC and VA pretty good, from all the hours I've been watcing it anyway, so I'm not surprised there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It looks like the GFS finally caught up. The latest run has finally shrunk the snow hole on the lee side of the mountains a little bit. Here is the ensemble mean. Keep in mind the Ensemble has some precip in coastal NC coming Friday after 12z from the little low off the southeast coast. This is the 24 hour preicp from 00z Thursday through 00z Friday, so this probably best represents this coming event. Still definitely a bump up from 6z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I must admit the latest run of the RUC looks a whole lot better than it did 3 hours ago. Yep, doesn't look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeah...I'm attempting to quell my inner weenie as well. What would actually need to occur for the system to not significantly weaken and transfer its energy to the low off the coast? Is it some convoluted, shot in the dark formula? Then again, anything can happen! What I would like to see (not completely sure if it would help though) is to see the coastal low be a bit inland. That way, the effect of the energy transfer will lessen to where more precipitation will be available instead of it jumping across western and central NC and into eastern NC. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It looks like the GFS finally caught up. The latest run has finally shrunk the snow hole on the lee side of the mountains a little bit. Here is the ensemble mean. For one of the few times, being in Union County may help me out. That .5-.75 band is only one county away on this map. Would be nice to see this give a nice 3 inches, would definitely be happy with that. I am still only expecting half of what any QPF on a model depicts though from past storms in mby anyways. Congrats to everyone who has gotten nailed or gets nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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