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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


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is this going to be a last minute oh ah 4-6 inches instead of 1-2, i've seen this plenty of times.:whistle:

NO, it's not.

This is NOT the Christmas Storm Redux.

I'm sorry, but some of you can't seem to see the forest for the trees.

This incessant whining about FFC gets old too, especially when their forecast may very well be right.

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looks to me like a lot of snow moving due east, I know its forecast to fall apart and it may but it looks like more that 1-2 inches right now for wnc.also for n ga and upstate and e. tenn.

It should continue to weaken as it comes east, and redevelops further south near theGulf, then that redevelops in the eastern Carolinas. The new NAM still has this basic look as well, and just gives flurries from BHM to ATL and in a widening V-shape hole east of the Apps to include all of western SC , most of central and western NC, with passing flurries. Those areas may get a dusting from that. I think my map is going to bust too high in a good chunk of northern Ala, Ga and SC, where I had 1 to 3". And probably too high in eastern NC, but there it should be close to 3" so not off too bad I don't think. The RUC shows this type of thing well , just a quick moving, dying band of moisture across N. Alabama , GA and the western Carolinas, as the energy and moisture transfer quickly to the coast by morning. For the northern Upstate, western NC and CLT region, I think our highest risk of flurries will be around midnight to 5 am. And then its over.

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NO, it's not.

This is NOT the Christmas Storm Redux.

I'm sorry, but some of you can't seem to see the forest for the trees.

This incessant whining about FFC gets old too, especially when their forecast may very well be right.

At this point, many things can happen with this storm, there are no certainties at this point. I am looking at the bigger picture and always have. Obviously NWS, mets, and the models all have differing opinions right now, so to say someone is wrong is not based on reality.

And yes, their forecast may very well be right, but if past history is any indicator, it is not. Time will most certainly tell.

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I don't see how this is going to amount to a whole lot more than 2". Wishcasting is great, but reality is this is going to be a light event. If someone in GA manages to find 2" I will be stoked.

I think all this snow this winter has us spoiled. Normally a 2 inch event would be a major deal in Georgia.

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NO, it's not.

This is NOT the Christmas Storm Redux.

I'm sorry, but some of you can't seem to see the forest for the trees.

This incessant whining about FFC gets old too, especially when their forecast may very well be right.

I've never understood the infatuation from folk, in reference to Winter Storm Watches & Warnings. It's not like the WSW is going to make it snow.

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It should continue to weaken as it comes east, and redevelops further south near theGulf, then that redevelops in the eastern Carolinas. The new NAM still has this basic look as well, and just gives flurries from BHM to ATL and in a widening V-shape hole east of the Apps to include all of western SC , most of central and western NC, with passing flurries. Those areas may get a dusting from that. I think my map is going to bust too high in a good chunk of northern Ala, Ga and SC, where I had 1 to 3". And probably too high in eastern NC, but there it should be close to 3" so not off too bad I don't think. The RUC shows this type of thing well , just a quick moving, dying band of moisture across N. Alabama , GA and the western Carolinas, as the energy and moisture transfer quickly to the coast by morning. For the northern Upstate, western NC and CLT region, I think our highest risk of flurries will be around midnight to 5 am. And then its over.

What did your map say for Central AL ? BMX is saying the heaviest snow will be south of Birmingham, where they are forecasting 2-3 inches.

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It should continue to weaken as it comes east, and redevelops further south near theGulf, then that redevelops in the eastern Carolinas. The new NAM still has this basic look as well, and just gives flurries from BHM to ATL and in a widening V-shape hole east of the Apps to include all of western SC , most of central and western NC, with passing flurries. Those areas may get a dusting from that. I think my map is going to bust too high in a good chunk of northern Ala, Ga and SC, where I had 1 to 3". And probably too high in eastern NC, but there it should be close to 3" so not off too bad I don't think. The RUC shows this type of thing well , just a quick moving, dying band of moisture across N. Alabama , GA and the western Carolinas, as the energy and moisture transfer quickly to the coast by morning. For the northern Upstate, western NC and CLT region, I think our highest risk of flurries will be around midnight to 5 am. And then its over.

Hey Robert, the NAM pretty much nailed this storm for Ok/NW ARK according to their boards. The 12Z NAM hasn't changed a whole lot on qpf but the simulated radar looks a lot better for NE Ga and NW SC...thoughts?

post-644-0-82280900-1297261061.jpg

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Wow... the last two pages of "disco" have sucked. Move this crap to the banter thread. I'm tired of reading about how crappy ffc is and how a miracle could still happen. Post something relevant please.

Just signed on and I agree. Folks, lets take the ffc stuff, wishful thinking, and other non actual analysis discussion to the banter thread. It's all gotten a bit out of hand in here.

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Oconee, is that the new NAM ? Foothills was saying it was showing just flurries from Atlanta to Birmingham but it looks like near Atlanta it is showing more moisture than that.

Yes that's the 12Z Nam tomorrow morning. I like the reflectivity vs. the 850/precip maps as it really is close to what the radar is showing right now out in the plains...gives hope to me.

This is over the next 6 hrs so let's see if it's pretty close still.

post-644-0-81544200-1297261418.jpg

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Once the system crosses the MS, you will start to see an energy transfer to the coastline and the system rapidly weaken. NAM and RUC seem to be picking up on this in the last few runs. While the system has overperformed on the northern edge, this is the best it's probably ever going to look on radar.

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Hey Robert, the NAM pretty much nailed this storm for Ok/NW ARK according to their boards. The 12Z NAM hasn't changed a whole lot on qpf but the simulated radar looks a lot better for NE Ga and NW SC...thoughts?

post-644-0-82280900-1297261061.jpg

to me it looks about the same as it has been looking. Don't read too much in the simulated refl. Your area will be the last to lose the rates, what little there is and it dies quickly as it gets a little east of your area, but I don't think much of anything for your area and northern GA to here, really anywhere in central or western NC, except the mtns closer to TN border a little more. I'm expecting flurries at best around here, possibly a dusting just west and southwest toward your area. The UVV's are just so weak as the transfer is taking place, leaving "not much" to make anything significant fall. The RH shield is probably overblown around this side of the Apps for those 3 to 4 hours when it has something. Either way, we're only talking about a dusting to flakes here, so I'm not worried about anything here, if zilch happens I won't be surprised. I do think areas south of 20 or near it in Al and GA have a shot at 2" though, and eastern NC. The biggest amounts look to be Ark, western /nw MIss.

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to me it looks about the same as it has been looking. Don't read too much in the simulated refl. Your area will be the last to lose the rates, what little there is and it dies quickly as it gets a little east of your area, but I don't think much of anything for your area and northern GA to here, really anywhere in central or western NC, except the mtns closer to TN border a little more. I'm expecting flurries at best around here, possibly a dusting just west and southwest toward your area. The UVV's are just so weak as the transfer is taking place, leaving "not much" to make anything significant fall. The RH shield is probably overblown around this side of the Apps for those 3 to 4 hours when it has something. Either way, we're only talking about a dusting to flakes here, so I'm not worried about anything here, if zilch happens I won't be surprised. I do think areas south of 20 or near it in Al and GA have a shot at 2" though, and eastern NC. The biggest amounts look to be Ark, western /nw MIss.

Thank you sir! I'm just hoping for an inch to break the illusive 12" total!

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9z SREF matches up pretty well with the 12z NAM for ENC, and the first run where I am on, or just inside the 0.5" hatch... :thumbsup:

sref_x24_036s.gif

HPC's take

day1_psnow_gt_04.gif

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

304 AM EST WED FEB 09 2011

VALID 12Z WED FEB 09 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 12 2011

DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE

VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC COAST...

STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL

MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY. AMPLE

GULF INFLOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP FGEN FORCING AND THE STRONG

MID LVL DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVIER AMTS EARLY IN THE

PERIOD FROM ERN OK THRU AR/NRN LA INTO MS. WITH A DEEP ARCTIC

AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL BE PREDOMINATE PTYPE

ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR WHERE A HIGH RISK FOR 4-INCHES/SLGT RISK OF

8-INCHES HAS BEEN INDICATED. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT

EXPECTED...SOME POST FRONTAL LGT FREEZING RAIN DRIZZLE CAN BE

EXPECTED FROM SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. HEAVY

SNOW AMTS APPEAR LESS LIKELY FURTHER TO THE E ACROSS THE TN

VLY/SOUTHEAST AS THE MID LVL SHTRTWV AND INFLOW FROM GULF ARE BOTH

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE LWR MS VLY EWD.

HOWEVER A RESUGENCE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...THIS TIME OFF OF THE

ATL...INTERACTING ONCE AGAIN WITH DEEP FGEN FORCING COULD RESULT

IN SOME HEAVIER AMTS NEAR THE NC COAST. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW

COULD PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ERN

NC...WARRANTING A SLGT RISK FOR 4-INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

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I've had to delete several stupid pictures in this thread the last few days by people who are trying to be funny. The next person who posts a stupid picture is going to get a timeout.

Lookout,

Will we be going in storm mode for this occasion?

Thanks

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The NAM took away my flizzard :angry: :angry:

12Z NAM CAE

110210/0600Z 30 36005KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110210/0700Z 31 02006KT 39.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

110210/0800Z 32 36005KT 38.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

110210/0900Z 33 02003KT 38.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

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Lookout,

Will we be going in storm mode for this occasion?

Thanks

I doubt it but that doesn't mean I won't kick some ass if necessary..which it might be it would seem. So folks are forewarned, they need to think before they post because I don't need storm mode to 5 post them or give them a timeout.

fwiw, the 12z rgem is still insistent on the heavier amounts. Probably overdone but It looks like it's done ok so far over the plains and it Will be interesting to see how it ends up doing in the end. As has been the case for the last few days, I'm still thinking 1 to 2 in general for ga/sc, an inch or less in most of nc with 2 to 5 on the nc coast. For ga/sc, it should be noted that I think most end up with an inch and any 2 inch amounts is a best case scenario and will be localized and certainly not widespread. Some will see less than an inch as well.

12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg

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Looks like the GFS has finally come around to reality. There's going to be some 1" snows probably in Ga and Alabama, maybe 2" in spots, but eastern NC is where the moisture really begins to pick up. (looks overdone there though) Still next to nothing for the lee areas around here though.

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