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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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BMX is saying 2 inches not far from La Grange in Chambers County, AL and close to 1/2 inch for Phenix City.

Yes, I saw that too, but I also think the temperatures are going to be warmer than what they are forecasting. If temperatures go higher and clouds move in, there won't be much of an opportunity for a lot of snowfall down this way. Of course, that being said, if temperatures go lower then the chance goes up of seeing more snow. However, I am saying in my weathercasts of some spots picking up more than I am forecasting for ;)

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Do you think this will be one of those I-85 specials/surprises in Georgia, like March 2009?

After being able to look at the latest RUC (been busy doing cut-ins and other work I need to get done) There does seems the chance of this coming true. There is plenty of moisture at both 850 and 700. The temperature profiles do support plenty of snow to fall, but I am still worried about surface temps for this event for many across central GA and west central AL. I do realize we can see snow with temps up to 38/39, but the column doesn't seem cold enough to be able to support snow with temps in the mid 30s. I could very well be wrong, as this is only my third winter event that I have EVER forecasted for.... haha.

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I don't listen to FFC at this point. They've failed every storm this winter this far out. Before I got my 7.5" during the Jan 9th storm, they were dropping us to 2-3 inches maybe.

They're always to late for the party.

I can't count how many times they have underestimated winter storms and then at the last minute they finally see the light. What is going on down there in Peachtree City ? I mean at the very least I would think that hopefully there would be some communication between FFC and BMX. It seems like they are on two totally different pages.

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I can't count how many times they have underestimated winter storms and then at the last minute they finally see the light. What is going on down there in Peachtree City ? I mean at the very least I would think that hopefully there would be some communication between FFC and BMX. It seems like they are on two totally different pages.

How do you think I feel? Half my viewers are in Alabama and the other half are in Georgia... The data from both differ greatly sometimes that it's hard to pick one from the other. Also, if the News Director asks me how much snow we are going to get (which he just did) then I must be earning my stripes fairly quickly.

I have to say though. Looking at all the data is great and everything, but sometimes it comes down to gut calls. My gut calls have been good so far this season, and it's telling my that we just won't get THAT much here locally... La Grange though could see about an inch or so and maybe Auburn picks up an inch as well... It's going to be fun to watch that's for sure!

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How do you think I feel? Half my viewers are in Alabama and the other half are in Georgia... The data from both differ greatly sometimes that it's hard to pick one from the other. Also, if the News Director asks me how much snow we are going to get (which he just did) then I must be earning my stripes fairly quickly.

I have to say though. Looking at all the data is great and everything, but sometimes it comes down to gut calls. My gut calls have been good so far this season, and it's telling my that we just won't get THAT much here locally... La Grange though could see about an inch or so and maybe Auburn picks up an inch as well... It's going to be fun to watch that's for sure!

How large of an area do you cover ? I know La Grange is in the Atlanta viewing area but is it also in your area as well ?

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How large of an area do you cover ? I know La Grange is in the Atlanta viewing area but is it also in your area as well ?

Our counties are: Troup, Meriwether, Talbot, Harris, Muscogee, Chatthoochee, Marion, Taylor, Schley, Sumter, Webster, Stewart, Quitman, Randolph and Clay Counties in Georgia. In Alabama we cover Chambers, Lee, Russell, Macon, Barbour, Bullock and Pike Counties.

And yes, people do watch us up that way. I get calls whenever winter/severe weather are forecast from a few people in Troup and Meriwether Counties.

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I can't count how many times they have underestimated winter storms and then at the last minute they finally see the light. What is going on down there in Peachtree City ? I mean at the very least I would think that hopefully there would be some communication between FFC and BMX. It seems like they are on two totally different pages.

If you feel that strongly about FFC then why not communicate your concerns directly with them. Member "Absolutzero" works there and pops on this board from time to time. You could send a PM directly to him. I've included a link to his profile below.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/user/3715-absolutzero/

And the people that work there are government employees paid with tax payer dollars so they are literally paid by you and everyone else so you should feel free to take your concerns directly to the source.

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If you feel that strongly about FFC then why not communicate your concerns directly with them. Member "Absolutzero" works there and pops on this board from time to time. You could send a PM directly to him. I've included a link to his profile below.

http://www.americanw...15-absolutzero/

And the people that work there are government employees paid with tax payer dollars so they are literally paid by you and everyone else so you should feel free to take your concerns directly to the source.

I actually did!

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How much snow have you guys had this winter ? It seems like south of Atlanta has gotten the screwjob this year. I'm rooting for the south metro for this storm. I've had around 10 inches this winter so if I don't get much snow I won't be too upset.

I've had about 5". We got about 2" IMBY Christmas day/night. We got about 3" of snow/sleet mixwed Jan. 9/10 with a good coating of ice on top of that. Just a few miles to my north, they got 5-6" before the changeover to ice. We also just missed out on the Dec. ice that caused some real problems up in Atlanta and norhtward. Overall it has been a great winter even though we have been just south of bigger events. A couple inches tonight would easily make this the best winter in my 20 years in Fayette county GA.

Yes, FFC down in Peachtree City is a joke!! Their coordination with the offices to our east and west is a joke also! I can't tell you how many times over the years their have been watches, warnings and/or advisaries to our east and our west while FFC has sat on their hands. It also seems that they finally will notice a trend in the shortrange guidance about the time that guidance is trending the other way. I wonder if that may end up being the case for this event. I somethimes think they must have a good card game going on in the office and updating their forecast and AFD would interupt it. I use this board and it's contributors, along with James Spann and Matthew East to keep informed on the weather for my area.

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If you feel that strongly about FFC then why not communicate your concerns directly with them. Member "Absolutzero" works there and pops on this board from time to time. You could send a PM directly to him. I've included a link to his profile below.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/user/3715-absolutzero/

And the people that work there are government employees paid with tax payer dollars so they are literally paid by you and everyone else so you should feel free to take your concerns directly to the source.

Thank you very much. I think I will ask him something.

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I know it's a little tougher on them, there are actually three distinct topographical areas they have to forecast for and that does make it tougher. Plus, the models were showing a weakening as the system approaches us, so I can also understand to some extent, being on the fence with a watch. But, we'll see how long it takes them to come around and get in the game.

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I know it's a little tougher on them, there are actually three distinct topographical areas they have to forecast for and that does make it tougher. Plus, the models were showing a weakening as the system approaches us, so I can also understand to some extent, being on the fence with a watch. But, we'll see how long it takes them to come around and get in the game.

They could be right this time. Time will tell.

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I know it's a little tougher on them, there are actually three distinct topographical areas they have to forecast for and that does make it tougher. Plus, the models were showing a weakening as the system approaches us, so I can also understand to some extent, being on the fence with a watch. But, we'll see how long it takes them to come around and get in the game.

I understand there will be some weakening as the storm moves east but for goodness sake there is a Winter Storm Warning in 1 or 2 counties in East Central AL while the county directly east of them in GA is under nothing, not even an advisory. That is clearly lack of coordination between the two offices.

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I understand there will be some weakening as the storm moves east but for goodness sake there is a Winter Storm Warning in 1 or 2 counties in East Central AL while the county directly east of them in GA is under nothing, not even an advisory. That is clearly lack of coordination between the two offices.

Perhaps BMX is being too optimistic.

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Perhaps BMX is being too optimistic.

That very well could be true. Maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Maybe FFC is too conservative and BMX is too aggressive. I guess we'll find out. Of course it's not like we're talking about BMX forecasting 6-12 while FFC is forecasting 1-3 for adjacent areas in GA so maybe I'm blowing this whole thing out of proportion lol.

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unless this thing drops a little further south, it almost looks like Tennessee might get some of the heavier stuff.

If you look at the latest RUC you can see how that would hold true.

It looks like it is trying to put the moisture together as it comes East for us, but it almost looks like TN wins and S AL and S GA will have moisture, but it is very thin in between. :banned:

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If you feel that strongly about FFC then why not communicate your concerns directly with them. Member "Absolutzero" works there and pops on this board from time to time. You could send a PM directly to him. I've included a link to his profile below.

http://www.americanw...15-absolutzero/

And the people that work there are government employees paid with tax payer dollars so they are literally paid by you and everyone else so you should feel free to take your concerns directly to the source.

Several of us have done that over the last few years. I have had a couple of PM conversations with Absolutzero. He understands our concerns. He has mention that there is an old school establishment that basically does things the way they want to.

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My rule of thumb, which has worked well especially this winter, is to take FFC's forecast and double the snowfall amounts. They were forecasting up to 3" for us on 1/9/11 and we got 6", and then a thick glaze of ice. Took 17 days for the last of the snow to melt from the piles next to my driveway.

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