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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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FWIW, The GFS ensemble mean is much wetter than the 0z run, especially for GA and eastern NC. It's the first time I've seen .75 showing up in extreme eastern NC. However, we are at the point where the short term, higher resolution models are better. Maybe we can get Robert and Phil to give us some RUC analysis. I'm looking forward to the nowcasting where folks start saying the radar doesn't match the models, and it's coming in faster. Last day folks!!!!

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From BMX : I wonder if this could extend into Georgia ?

LOOKING AT MORE OF THE MESOSCALE DYNAMICS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED FORCING CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING

IN A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF INCREASED FRONTOGENETICAL

FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFTING WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM

NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHERE THIS FORCING MEETS DEEPER MOISTURE

CONTENT...2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE

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Okay, well then why are you so concerned about an advisory or watch being issued? They will see more to your west and it will begin earlier than in GA thats why your not under one yet. Note FFC already said they were issuing an advisory tomorrow...Whats the confusion from?

And FFC has indeed hoisted a WWA. Interesting they're including places south of the metro where they're forecasting less than .25" of accum. Methinks they're covering their behinds seeing as how the possibility exists for the heavier snow to fall a bit further south. I'll be happy with a coating here.

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Some places in Arkansas are getting 12-16" of snow. Radar shows a deformation band that's nearly stationary. Dump.

http://www.daculawea...nsas_master.php

Yep the NAM and a few others said that all along that them and parts of OK would be the sweetspot!

Got a good link to the RUC, better than NCEP i think

http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/

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Looks like a Winter Storm Warning will go into effect for the western portions of the Atlanta tv viewing area ( in East Central AL) at 7am. Looks like FFC is being their typical conservative selves. Wouldnt be at all surprised if a Warning is issued for much of GA this afternoon. Even the normally conservative Fox 5 says 1-2 inches for metro Atlanta.

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FWIW, The GFS ensemble mean is much wetter than the 0z run, especially for GA and eastern NC. It's the first time I've seen .75 showing up in extreme eastern NC. However, we are at the point where the short term, higher resolution models are better. Maybe we can get Robert and Phil to give us some RUC analysis. I'm looking forward to the nowcasting where folks start saying the radar doesn't match the models, and it's coming in faster. Last day folks!!!!

I'm still holding hope for 2-4" for NGA and NeGA and NW SC. Looking for our typical over performance from this.

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Lurking in the Central States forum, it seems like the heaviest snow is north of what it once thought it would be. For example, Oklahoma City was gonna get 8-10", but they may be lucky to get 6". But places north of the city said they are going to get close to a foot. Something to note, nonetheless. Also my current temperature is 16.1 degress..:snowman:

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Lurking in the Central States forum, it seems like the heaviest snow is north of what it once thought it would be. For example, Oklahoma City was gonna get 8-10", but they may be lucky to get 6". But places north of the city said they are going to get close to a foot. Something to note, nonetheless. Also my current temperature is 16.1 degress..:snowman:

And I believe Dallas was forecast to get 3-6 and they may get much less.

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Lurking in the Central States forum, it seems like the heaviest snow is north of what it once thought it would be. For example, Oklahoma City was gonna get 8-10", but they may be lucky to get 6". But places north of the city said they are going to get close to a foot. Something to note, nonetheless. Also my current temperature is 16.1 degress..:snowman:

Noticed that as well. The temps with and behind this system are extremely cold. I'd place money that GFS temps for mby verify 5-10 degrees colder Thursday- Friday.

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From BMX : I wonder if this could extend into Georgia ?

LOOKING AT MORE OF THE MESOSCALE DYNAMICS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED FORCING CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING

IN A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF INCREASED FRONTOGENETICAL

FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFTING WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM

NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHERE THIS FORCING MEETS DEEPER MOISTURE

CONTENT...2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE

Here is the whole thing....they are looking at higher amounts south of I20 and north of I85.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1138 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY REGARDING THE SNOW AS

WE BEGIN TO CHASE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. REALLY LIKED THE LOOK AND

FEEL OF THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM 850 TO 700MB...ALONG

WITH THE PROSPECTS OF SOME SLANTWISE INSTABILITY FROM 700 TO

500MB NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE 24 HOUR window. BOTH PRODUCTS REALLY

INCREASE FROM 00 TO 06Z BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TO THE

MGM/AUB AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THE BEST INCREASES SHOWN ON THE NAM40

AND 80 ARE BETWEEN A SUMTER...CHILTON...RANDOLPH LINE DOWN TO

INTERSTATE 85 FROM 03 TO 06Z. THE 18 AND 00Z GFS ROLLED IN WITH

SIMILAR RESULTS...AND BUYING INTO THE FACT THAT THE QUOTE HEAVIER

SNOW IS MOVING FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN THE SREF...IT SEEMED

REASONABLE TO EXTEND THE WATCH SEVERAL COUNTIES SOUTHEAST. I AM

LIKING THE HEAVIEST BAND TO BE BETWEEN I20 AND I85...OR MAINLY

SUMTER TO CHILTON TO ELMORE TO LOWNDES. JUST AN SEMI EDUCATED

GUESS IF ONE BELIEVES THAT WE CAN TURN SYNOPTIC INTO MESOSCALE

MAGIC. UPDATES OUT.

17/KLAWS

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The models and mets' discussion on here haven't done that yet? Lol. I'm holding out for an inch. Even with a last minute N trend with the QPF we'll be lucky to see 2".

I think this is the kind of storm that could bring a lot of last minute surprises (hopefully for the good). But 1-2" would still be a great storm for GA standards.

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Wow, .25 or more for Atlanta and North Georgia ? I'm thinking the 1/2-1" FFC is forecasting could be a little conservative. Maybe we'll get a nice 1-3" surprise.

I suspect they see what BMX is mentioning in their AFD, but are afraid do something so bold as to mention the possibility of more snow further south. Even Mellish this moring said 1/4" - 2" without any mention of location. He was very generalized and broadbrushing even for him. Maybe this is going to be one where those of us south of ATL. do better than thos to our north. My hope is that the moisture holds together and we all do well!

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I suspect they see what BMX is mentioning in their AFD, but are afraid do something so bold as to mention the possibility of more snow further south. Even Mellish this moring said 1/4" - 2" without any mention of location. He was very generalized and broadbrushing even for him. Maybe this is going to be one where those of us south of ATL. do better than thos to our north. My hope is that the moisture holds together and we all do well!

How much snow have you guys had this winter ? It seems like south of Atlanta has gotten the screwjob this year. I'm rooting for the south metro for this storm. I've had around 10 inches this winter so if I don't get much snow I won't be too upset.

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It's pretty interesting that there's a Winter Storm Warning in the northwest part of the Columbus metro in East Alabama. Meanwhile, FFC is saying all rain in counties that are adjacent to areas under a Winter Storm Warning. You would think in situations like these the 2 offices would collaborate with each other.

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One thing about the snow setting up farther to the south is the temperatures... I have a feeling those from La Grange to the north could do quite well with this system with maybe an inch... I'm not seeing too much for me to up the potential totals. Of course, I could be wrong, but the heavier snows to the north are keeping me conservative for my viewing area.

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One thing about the snow setting up farther to the south is the temperatures... I have a feeling those from La Grange to the north could do quite well with this system with maybe an inch... I'm not seeing too much for me to up the potential totals. Of course, I could be wrong, but the heavier snows to the north are keeping me conservative for my viewing area.

BMX is saying 2 inches not far from La Grange in Chambers County, AL and close to 1/2 inch for Phenix City.

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James Spann posted a map that, if you extend it into GA, would mean 2-3 inches for Atlanta and south/west Metro Atlanta, with 1-2 for Northwest Metro Atlanta. Sounds like the folks in AL are thinking completely differently than FFC, with heaviest snow along and south of I-20 in AL and FFC saying the highest amounts in extreme North GA.

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