Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yea, thought I saw that too that the NAO and AO are progged to go to at least neutral after a short run at positive next week Who knows, maybe there's more fun times ahead before winter is over. We have seen some big snows in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The NW trend id happening. You knew we were just due for it. Watch out Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW, The GFS ensemble mean is much wetter than the 0z run, especially for GA and eastern NC. It's the first time I've seen .75 showing up in extreme eastern NC. However, we are at the point where the short term, higher resolution models are better. Maybe we can get Robert and Phil to give us some RUC analysis. I'm looking forward to the nowcasting where folks start saying the radar doesn't match the models, and it's coming in faster. Last day folks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow, .25 or more for Atlanta and North Georgia ? I'm thinking the 1/2-1" FFC is forecasting could be a little conservative. Maybe we'll get a nice 1-3" surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Some places in Arkansas are getting 12-16" of snow. Radar shows a deformation band that's nearly stationary. Dump. http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_arkansas_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 From BMX : I wonder if this could extend into Georgia ? LOOKING AT MORE OF THE MESOSCALE DYNAMICS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED FORCING CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF INCREASED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFTING WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHERE THIS FORCING MEETS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT...2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Okay, well then why are you so concerned about an advisory or watch being issued? They will see more to your west and it will begin earlier than in GA thats why your not under one yet. Note FFC already said they were issuing an advisory tomorrow...Whats the confusion from? And FFC has indeed hoisted a WWA. Interesting they're including places south of the metro where they're forecasting less than .25" of accum. Methinks they're covering their behinds seeing as how the possibility exists for the heavier snow to fall a bit further south. I'll be happy with a coating here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Some places in Arkansas are getting 12-16" of snow. Radar shows a deformation band that's nearly stationary. Dump. http://www.daculawea...nsas_master.php Yep the NAM and a few others said that all along that them and parts of OK would be the sweetspot! Got a good link to the RUC, better than NCEP i think http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like a Winter Storm Warning will go into effect for the western portions of the Atlanta tv viewing area ( in East Central AL) at 7am. Looks like FFC is being their typical conservative selves. Wouldnt be at all surprised if a Warning is issued for much of GA this afternoon. Even the normally conservative Fox 5 says 1-2 inches for metro Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW, The GFS ensemble mean is much wetter than the 0z run, especially for GA and eastern NC. It's the first time I've seen .75 showing up in extreme eastern NC. However, we are at the point where the short term, higher resolution models are better. Maybe we can get Robert and Phil to give us some RUC analysis. I'm looking forward to the nowcasting where folks start saying the radar doesn't match the models, and it's coming in faster. Last day folks!!!! I'm still holding hope for 2-4" for NGA and NeGA and NW SC. Looking for our typical over performance from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Lurking in the Central States forum, it seems like the heaviest snow is north of what it once thought it would be. For example, Oklahoma City was gonna get 8-10", but they may be lucky to get 6". But places north of the city said they are going to get close to a foot. Something to note, nonetheless. Also my current temperature is 16.1 degress.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Lurking in the Central States forum, it seems like the heaviest snow is north of what it once thought it would be. For example, Oklahoma City was gonna get 8-10", but they may be lucky to get 6". But places north of the city said they are going to get close to a foot. Something to note, nonetheless. Also my current temperature is 16.1 degress.. And I believe Dallas was forecast to get 3-6 and they may get much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not at the office yet, so I'm on the blackberry. Have not looked at any thing form overnight. But I agree and hope your statement comes true I'm still holding hope for 2-4" for NGA and NeGA and NW SC. Looking for our typical over performance from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm still holding hope for 2-4" for NGA and NeGA and NW SC. Looking for our typical over performance from this. I'm with you. I'm still holding on to 2-4" here until something makes me change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Lurking in the Central States forum, it seems like the heaviest snow is north of what it once thought it would be. For example, Oklahoma City was gonna get 8-10", but they may be lucky to get 6". But places north of the city said they are going to get close to a foot. Something to note, nonetheless. Also my current temperature is 16.1 degress.. Noticed that as well. The temps with and behind this system are extremely cold. I'd place money that GFS temps for mby verify 5-10 degrees colder Thursday- Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm with you. I'm still holding on to 2-4" here until something makes me change my mind. That would be awesome if we got that much, and the good thing this time is that we wouldn't have to be worried about being stranded at home for days since it will melt prety quickly on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 From BMX : I wonder if this could extend into Georgia ? LOOKING AT MORE OF THE MESOSCALE DYNAMICS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED FORCING CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOWFALL. AN AREA OF INCREASED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFTING WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHERE THIS FORCING MEETS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT...2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE Here is the whole thing....they are looking at higher amounts south of I20 and north of I85. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1138 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... A FEW CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY REGARDING THE SNOW AS WE BEGIN TO CHASE THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. REALLY LIKED THE LOOK AND FEEL OF THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM 850 TO 700MB...ALONG WITH THE PROSPECTS OF SOME SLANTWISE INSTABILITY FROM 700 TO 500MB NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE 24 HOUR window. BOTH PRODUCTS REALLY INCREASE FROM 00 TO 06Z BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TO THE MGM/AUB AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THE BEST INCREASES SHOWN ON THE NAM40 AND 80 ARE BETWEEN A SUMTER...CHILTON...RANDOLPH LINE DOWN TO INTERSTATE 85 FROM 03 TO 06Z. THE 18 AND 00Z GFS ROLLED IN WITH SIMILAR RESULTS...AND BUYING INTO THE FACT THAT THE QUOTE HEAVIER SNOW IS MOVING FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN THE SREF...IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO EXTEND THE WATCH SEVERAL COUNTIES SOUTHEAST. I AM LIKING THE HEAVIEST BAND TO BE BETWEEN I20 AND I85...OR MAINLY SUMTER TO CHILTON TO ELMORE TO LOWNDES. JUST AN SEMI EDUCATED GUESS IF ONE BELIEVES THAT WE CAN TURN SYNOPTIC INTO MESOSCALE MAGIC. UPDATES OUT. 17/KLAWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Psalm, I'm beginning to think there could be an area of heavier snow in GA too, maybe from around Carrollton southward to La Grange, if temps are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm with you. I'm still holding on to 2-4" here until something makes me change my mind. The models and mets' discussion on here haven't done that yet? Lol. I'm holding out for an inch. Even with a last minute N trend with the QPF we'll be lucky to see 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here is my first call for the CLT area........ South CLT 2-5 flakes North CLT including MBY 1-3 flakes with a high potential to need vasoline to help with the pain. I'll probably update my forecast later today as trends develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The models and mets' discussion on here haven't done that yet? Lol. I'm holding out for an inch. Even with a last minute N trend with the QPF we'll be lucky to see 2". I think this is the kind of storm that could bring a lot of last minute surprises (hopefully for the good). But 1-2" would still be a great storm for GA standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think this is the kind of storm that could bring a lot of last minute surprises (hopefully for the good). But 1-2" would still be a great storm for GA standards. I would love a good surprise, because I'm only pronged to get 1/2-1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 And I believe Dallas was forecast to get 3-6 and they may get much less. It doesn't look like they will get anything more than a dusting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It doesn't look like they will get anything more than a dusting.. Major bust for them, but i'm sure after last week most people don't mind a bust there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow, .25 or more for Atlanta and North Georgia ? I'm thinking the 1/2-1" FFC is forecasting could be a little conservative. Maybe we'll get a nice 1-3" surprise. I suspect they see what BMX is mentioning in their AFD, but are afraid do something so bold as to mention the possibility of more snow further south. Even Mellish this moring said 1/4" - 2" without any mention of location. He was very generalized and broadbrushing even for him. Maybe this is going to be one where those of us south of ATL. do better than thos to our north. My hope is that the moisture holds together and we all do well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I suspect they see what BMX is mentioning in their AFD, but are afraid do something so bold as to mention the possibility of more snow further south. Even Mellish this moring said 1/4" - 2" without any mention of location. He was very generalized and broadbrushing even for him. Maybe this is going to be one where those of us south of ATL. do better than thos to our north. My hope is that the moisture holds together and we all do well! How much snow have you guys had this winter ? It seems like south of Atlanta has gotten the screwjob this year. I'm rooting for the south metro for this storm. I've had around 10 inches this winter so if I don't get much snow I won't be too upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It's pretty interesting that there's a Winter Storm Warning in the northwest part of the Columbus metro in East Alabama. Meanwhile, FFC is saying all rain in counties that are adjacent to areas under a Winter Storm Warning. You would think in situations like these the 2 offices would collaborate with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 One thing about the snow setting up farther to the south is the temperatures... I have a feeling those from La Grange to the north could do quite well with this system with maybe an inch... I'm not seeing too much for me to up the potential totals. Of course, I could be wrong, but the heavier snows to the north are keeping me conservative for my viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 One thing about the snow setting up farther to the south is the temperatures... I have a feeling those from La Grange to the north could do quite well with this system with maybe an inch... I'm not seeing too much for me to up the potential totals. Of course, I could be wrong, but the heavier snows to the north are keeping me conservative for my viewing area. BMX is saying 2 inches not far from La Grange in Chambers County, AL and close to 1/2 inch for Phenix City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 James Spann posted a map that, if you extend it into GA, would mean 2-3 inches for Atlanta and south/west Metro Atlanta, with 1-2 for Northwest Metro Atlanta. Sounds like the folks in AL are thinking completely differently than FFC, with heaviest snow along and south of I-20 in AL and FFC saying the highest amounts in extreme North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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