Jon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 FWIW, UKMET is showing a 1011mb LP west of Tampa and another one off the Carolinas Reminds me of the 00z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Been out- now the trends are bad again I see- I am over this "storm". Bring on spring. Maybe we get an inch or so, maybe not. After this good winter, it is no biggie either way, I don't know, Cheeze. We've got a long hot summer to sweat through. I'm not ready for the cold to go away. I'm not ready for winter to be over. 35 to 40 for a low and 65 for a high would be nice, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't know, Cheeze. We've got a long hot summer to sweat through. I'm not ready for the cold to go away. I'm not ready for winter to be over. 35 to 40 for a low and 65 for a high would be nice, though. I am definitely ready for spring weather, but I want to see SOMETHING to close this winter out on...ending it in the month of Feb without winterwx...no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't know, Cheeze. We've got a long hot summer to sweat through. I'm not ready for the cold to go away. I'm not ready for winter to be over. 35 to 40 for a low and 65 for a high would be nice, though. Yeah, seriously. If this coming summer is anything like last summer i'm packing my stuff and moving to the highest mountain in North Carolina. I hope we have an extended spring, lasting into June. I'll take cold any day over 95 degrees with 75 dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 UKMET Precip @ 48 http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/images/2011020800.f048.500.p06inonehghttmpcnone.uslcc.ukmet.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Post pertains to areas in and around Asheville, ~0Z NAM ~Bufkit data for KAVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z Canadian coming in with the wettest solution it's had yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z Canadian coming in with the wettest solution it's had yet It lost the storm after this time frame. Keep in mind this is in millimeters not inches. 1 millimeter = 0.0393700787 in .......With ratios probably being 1 inch of snow for every .1inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 its the 12 hr interval... we need the 6 hours in between... looks MUCH improved from 12z thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 its the 12 hr interval... we need the 6 hours in between... looks MUCH improved from 12z thats for sure It is a 12hr interval, but that's precip over the last 12 hrs on the 72 frame. It's not like the UKMet where we are only able to see the previous 6 hr of precip on the 12 hr frame (60-72). That's extremely light precip in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ok I've attempted to do some analysis here on what I think has been going on with the RUC. The model for the last 5-6 hours has been consistently stronger than both the NAM and GFS. Why? Well it seems to be phasing two pieces of energy that none of the other models are doing. Just check out this snapshot at first 12z this morning, and then again at 18z and 21z. This is clearly unlike what any other solution is showing at this time. While the amount of added energy might seem insignificant, its these types of phases that don't get accounted for in the modeling that can cause drastically different solutions. Since we are still in the 48-72 hour range for our system, major shifts can still happen, but they require a catalysis that allows a drastically different solution to occur. We saw this happen with the Christmas Storm, where there was an added piece of northern stream energy that the models didn't account for. When that merged with the strong southern stream shortwave to the south, we saw the models quickly shift to a far more amplified solution. Now look what the RUC seems to be indicating here... once again a northern stream piece of energy, one that seems to be under-modeled thus far, is merging with our main shortwave and causing a much deeper solution. The good news is that we only have about 6-12 hours to find out if the RUC is on crack or actually showing a legitimate solution with these shortwaves. If this phase does occur like the RUC is modeling, the GFS and NAM will be dead wrong with their limited precipitation further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ok I've attempted to do some analysis here on what I think has been going on with the RUC. The model for the last 5-6 hours has been consistently stronger than both the NAM and GFS. Why? Well it seems to be phasing two pieces of energy that none of the other models are doing. Just check out this snapshot at first 12z this morning, and then again at 18z and 21z. This is clearly unlike what any other solution is showing at this time. While the amount of added energy might seem insignificant, its these types of phases that don't get accounted for in the modeling that can cause drastically different solutions. Since we are still in the 48-72 hour range for our system, major shifts can still happen, but they require a catalysis that allows a drastically different solution to occur. We saw this happen with the Christmas Storm, where there was an added piece of northern stream energy that the models didn't account for. When that merged with the strong southern stream shortwave to the south, we saw the models quickly shift to a far more amplified solution. Now look what the RUC seems to be indicating here... once again a northern stream piece of energy, one that seems to be under-modeled thus far, is merging with our main shortwave and causing a much deeper solution. The good news is that we only have about 6-12 hours to find out if the RUC is on crack or actually showing a legitimate solution with these shortwaves. If this phase does occur like the RUC is modeling, the GFS and NAM will be dead wrong with their limited precipitation further east. That is true, but didn't the other models kinda hint at that as well? I mean, they are all showing a lot of energy over Oklahoma/Arkansas for a decent snow there. However, once that energy moves east, it kinda phases out and weakens. Maybe I am missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Folks, For ATL-AHN: 0Z Euro gives ~1" of snow. 2nd wave forms later off FL coast, but likely too warm most coastal areas. Also, the 0Z NAM gives ~1" of snow. 0Z gfs gives nada. So major storm cancel However, 0Z GGEM as well as 0Z JMA give 1.5-2". Also, 0Z UKMET is very roughly estimated (since six hours of qpf N/A) to give 3". I've decided to drop my prediction for ATL from 2" back to the 1" I had early yesterday. Night night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Folks, For ATL-AHN: 0Z Euro gives ~1" of snow. 2nd wave forms later off FL coast, but likely too warm most coastal areas. Also, the 0Z NAM gives ~1" of snow. 0Z gfs gives nada. So major storm cancel However, 0Z GGEM does give 1.5-2". An inch sounds good. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That is true, but didn't the other models kinda hint at that as well? I mean, they are all showing a lot of energy over Oklahoma/Arkansas for a decent snow there. However, once that energy moves east, it kinda phases out and weakens. Maybe I am missing something? Yes, the wave is weakening as it progresses eastward, but if we can get enough amplification out west, we will still end up with a stronger shortwave even if it dampens out somewhat in the east. In addition, a stronger shortwave out west also likely induces height rises too the east, which causes warm air advection, when then enhances the baroclinic boundary... this temperature gradient provides more energy to the system and forces it to intensity or amplify further. The process is a positive feedback loop, so if you just get a minor adjustment in the shortwave intensity, it can have quite a large impact on the overall cyclone. Thats why you sometimes see some pretty major changes, even as we get into short range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 An inch sounds good. Better than nothing. Agreed 100%. This winter rocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Agreed 100%. This winter rocks! The good thing is that we've had so much snow this winter that even if we get nothing I won't consider suicide. If we had no snow up to this point, then I would be very depressed right now. Whether this system gives us anything or not, this was still a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks for the tidbit on the RUC, Phil! Let's hope it's right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I am holding on to a small glimmer of hope. It will be interesting to see if the GFS resurrects this storm in the next 24 to 36 hours as it is apt to do. The GFS sometimes has a tendency to be out to lunch sometimes. I wonder if models have a harder time handling split flow regimes during a La Nina as opposed to El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Agreed 100%. This winter rocks! I honestly cant complain about this winter, even if I dont see another flake. It's been an incredible run. Now, let's get some mojo going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just posted projected snowfall outputs based on SmartModel output for midwest and southern states, under the link Feb 9-11 Smart SnowFall. http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 FFC says 1/2-1 inch for most of N GA, with 1-2 for Far North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 0z model runs have pretty much killed this storm other than a flizzard for anyone really. The GFS and GGEM seem to be leading the way.. even the GFS esembles are coming in a tad warmer and with much less qpf than yesterday's. The NOGAPS even kills this weak system quickly. Euro keeps getting drier along with the NAM after it's .25 run for the CAE area which was still pathetic. .20 looks to be the most that happens through here and honestly, with the cold air mass in place.. I doubt we'll even see much of that on the surface. The storm keeps getting weaker the closer we get to the event, and I am not optimistic about it being anything significant at all. Phil was speaking of a possible phase with some energy on the RUC, and that could strengthen the storm to an extent.. but I don't think it's gonna be enough to make this hold on as it approaches the SE since it has no other support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 0z model runs have pretty much killed this storm other than a flizzard for anyone really. The GFS and GGEM seem to be leading the way.. even the GFS esembles are coming in a tad warmer and with much less qpf than yesterday's. The NOGAPS even kills this weak system quickly. Euro keeps getting drier along with the NAM after it's .25 run for the CAE area which was still pathetic. .20 looks to be the most that happens through here and honestly, with the cold air mass in place.. I doubt we'll even see much of that on the surface. The storm keeps getting weaker the closer we get to the event, and I am not optimistic about it being anything significant at all. Phil was speaking of a possible phase with some energy on the RUC, and that could strengthen the storm to an extent.. but I don't think it's gonna be enough to make this hold on as it approaches the SE since it has no other support. *cough cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 *cough cough* I hope the RGEM is onto something for GA at least. The 06z NAM was terrible once again and the GFS just began. I want to see the low stay stronger for longer like the RGEM is wanting to do. Does anyone have good graphics and more data of the RGEM that can look and see if the phase that is shown on the RUC occurs on it also and that's why the precip shield stays intact longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Good post Phil. I animated it and later on the s/w that attempts to phase just pulls out into the Plains and doesn't. So the trends still are for the drying to occur esp. on the leeward side of the Apps chain. Its something to still watch though, but this is kind of like a clipper for NC and SC....where the dynamics are weak, and continue to weaken, but what little moisture there is gets wrung out west of the Apps and a dry slot shows over the I-85 corridor in SC and NC, then some re-development this time further east toward the Coastal Plain. If the surface low can get stronger or the 850 low hold together (currently progged to fade quickly after southern Arkansas) then there may be enough dynamics to break through and bring snow to the ground around the central/western Piedmont to foothills region of the Apps, otherwise it probably will be flurries to 1/2" at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 BMX sounds more optimistic than FFC. Winter Storm Watch issued for much of Central Alabama for Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Those are some tight gradients over CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I guess the Euro was bad? I didn't see one post on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ok I've attempted to do some analysis here on what I think has been going on with the RUC. The model for the last 5-6 hours has been consistently stronger than both the NAM and GFS. Why? Well it seems to be phasing two pieces of energy that none of the other models are doing. Just check out this snapshot at first 12z this morning, and then again at 18z and 21z. This is clearly unlike what any other solution is showing at this time. While the amount of added energy might seem insignificant, its these types of phases that don't get accounted for in the modeling that can cause drastically different solutions. Since we are still in the 48-72 hour range for our system, major shifts can still happen, but they require a catalysis that allows a drastically different solution to occur. We saw this happen with the Christmas Storm, where there was an added piece of northern stream energy that the models didn't account for. When that merged with the strong southern stream shortwave to the south, we saw the models quickly shift to a far more amplified solution. Now look what the RUC seems to be indicating here... once again a northern stream piece of energy, one that seems to be under-modeled thus far, is merging with our main shortwave and causing a much deeper solution. The good news is that we only have about 6-12 hours to find out if the RUC is on crack or actually showing a legitimate solution with these shortwaves. If this phase does occur like the RUC is modeling, the GFS and NAM will be dead wrong with their limited precipitation further east. I hope you're right Phil cause I'm almost ready: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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