Cornsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Off topic but does anyone know why my location would not show up in my profile. I have it set. Does it refresh every so often or something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 can someone explain to me why is it that when a storm goes north or is a lakes cutter or apps runner north of here the storm explodes. you never hear about the storm being sheared and all that jaze. what is it with these southern storms or i should say a cold front brings more snow or a northwest event at the tenn. line than this so called storm. it just seems easier for the storm to blow up going north of here with hardly ever anything bothering it. For storms to go north like you gave examples of would mean there would not be an overpowering polar vortex in the NE to get in the way and squish the storm into oblivion....like our current deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wheres your red tag AirNelson? So you can nail or forecast for a storm that hasn't even happened yet? Some of us still stand a chance even in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ill take that Canton. I wonder if Dixie's pool is heated? The pool CAN be heated but would put me in the poor house doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wheres your red tag AirNelson? So you can nail or forecast for a storm that hasn't even happened yet? Some of us still stand a chance even in NC. I agree. Self conceded comments like that aren't appreciated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM? The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wheres your red tag AirNelson? So you can nail or forecast for a storm that hasn't even happened yet? Some of us still stand a chance even in NC. Kirk Mellish's alter ego? Widre in drag? You make the call...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Thats a small sacrifice for you AmWx buds Dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM? The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks? The RPM has up to an inch down towards FFC or south - an inch is not impossible south of ATL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Weather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The RPM has up to an inch down towards FFC or south - an inch is not impossible south of ATL.... Hey Cheez, do you have access to post the RPM? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM? The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks? Just checked the soundings for Columbus from the 0z NAM and 18z GFS and despite the cold 850's the warm layer above it might be too much to overcome. The NAM freezing level never gets below 1,400ft while the GFS freezing level never gets below 2,000 ft. Of course if the QPF is heavier than depicted by either of those models then it could turn them over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 My fork has been stuck in this "cold" front for 3 days now, I can't believe you guys are still holding out hope for this thing. I said flurries and sprinkles for NC 3 days ago, you guys used up all your wishes on suppression and they all came true...on to next winter!!! Well aren't you the master forecaster! Can't wait for airnelson39wx.com to open. I will say one thing...I have seen NWS mention (in past afd's before-most notably the Christmas storm) that when it is snowing in SE KS and SW MO then watch out for our area. I do not know what that means though or how this correlates. Guess I am grasping at straws ( ) Well, the RUC says yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Someone else may have already said this but the storm looks like it's going due east or maybe i'm missing something.I'm praying everyone in the southeast gets the storm they want .AMAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey Cheez, do you have access to post the RPM? Thanks! No, sorry. I get it through work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM? The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks? My question too, 316. Nam looks to give us Fall Line folks(Columbus to Macon to Augusta) a chance at something more than a few flurries, as 850s look well south of us, but at .10", not much more, but surface temps look iffy.( yes, I know, it snows above 32deg, and in fact it never got below 36 the whole 3/1/09 storm and I got 3 inches here). Cheez, Dawson, et al, thoughts? EDIT: Thanks Dawson, Cheez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Someone else may have already said this but the storm looks like it's going due east or maybe i'm missing something.I'm praying everyone in the southeast gets the storm they want .AMAN. I know...right? It seems that there will be some places from Tx to OK and on that will see bust potential with their forecasts. It does appear to be moving more easterly. We shall see in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Weather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 No, sorry. I get it through work. Thanks!! is the new RPM close to the 12z output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Thanks!! is the new RPM close to the 12z output? It comes out every 3 hours- it is better than the 21Z run.. BTW the 00Z RGEM has 1-2" for ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 21z SREF not looking so hot... But one has to consider it is weighted roughly 20% on the ETA. Actually prefer the ARW as it is a newer model, better than the NMM (think NAM higher res in the short term WRF type), and continues with that heavier axis through the southern Coastal Plain of NC. Granted, 0z NAM sucks with a sharp cutoff, which would fit the bill of a weak transfer further offshore, and has support. But if anything, we have seen our southern stream come in stronger than initially progged, and the EC, yes the mother of all deterministic forecasting in the 5-7 day range, loose yet another solution only to see all the guidance converge on a less extreme solution within 48hrs, pretty much game time folks, Winter Storm Watch Up, not sure a warning will verify though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It comes out every 3 hours- it is better than the 21Z run.. BTW the 00Z RGEM has 1-2" for ATL Cheez, Does it still have the same gaping hole over W/Central NC? Thanks for any input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Part of the latest HPC Storm Summary Message: BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...THEN SOUTH INTO MEXICO. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NEW MEXICO INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME ONE FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY DANGEROUS AND LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DRIFTS TO FIVE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. WHITE OUT OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 RGEM. Arkansas is going to rack up and someone along I-20 might get 3" if they are lucky. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_024.jpg http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_036.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 WOW Part of the latest HPC Storm Summary Message: BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...THEN SOUTH INTO MEXICO. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NEW MEXICO INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME ONE FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY DANGEROUS AND LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DRIFTS TO FIVE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. WHITE OUT OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Birmingham FOX affiliate model: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well going to bed have to be up at 5 am so i will hope for better trends overnight and tomorrow, who knows, have seen it happen before even as the storm is happening. good night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS maybe a hair wetter, but at this range I do not trust its qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 WOW Some place between DDC and ICT had 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Cheez, according to James Spann the NWS is considering extending watches even further south to include areas near LaGrange, GA in East Central AL. Does this surprise you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The hardest part for me to comprehend in all of this is the gfs was right. Every storm this year has gone the same way. The euro shows one thing and the gfs something else. After a day or two the gfs starts moving towards the euro solution. Of course, this is the time the gfs is going to be right. Kudos to the gfs this round! Hopefully someone in the SE can get a surprise but I'm not holding my breath...Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 0z RGEM p-type graphic is up, this map pretty much exemplifies it, no real handoff and a non-existent transfer... Better than most guidance, but seems a little bullish atm, and that is saying a lot, in the negative sense. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html SE NC looks to be the big winner, Clinton NC ftw, towards Richlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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