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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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can someone explain to me why is it that when a storm goes north or is a lakes cutter or apps runner north of here the storm explodes. you never hear about the storm being sheared and all that jaze. what is it with these southern storms or i should say a cold front brings more snow or a northwest event at the tenn. line than this so called storm. it just seems easier for the storm to blow up going north of here with hardly ever anything bothering it.:banned:

For storms to go north like you gave examples of would mean there would not be an overpowering polar vortex in the NE to get in the way and squish the storm into oblivion....like our current deal.

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Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM?

The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks?

The RPM has up to an inch down towards FFC or south - an inch is not impossible south of ATL....

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Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM?

The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks?

Just checked the soundings for Columbus from the 0z NAM and 18z GFS and despite the cold 850's the warm layer above it might be too much to overcome. The NAM freezing level never gets below 1,400ft while the GFS freezing level never gets below 2,000 ft. Of course if the QPF is heavier than depicted by either of those models then it could turn them over.

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My fork has been stuck in this "cold" front for 3 days now, I can't believe you guys are still holding out hope for this thing. I said flurries and sprinkles for NC 3 days ago, you guys used up all your wishes on suppression and they all came true...on to next winter!!!

Well aren't you the master forecaster! Can't wait for airnelson39wx.com to open. :rolleyes:

I will say one thing...I have seen NWS mention (in past afd's before-most notably the Christmas storm) that when it is snowing in SE KS and SW MO then watch out for our area. I do not know what that means though or how this correlates. Guess I am grasping at straws (:weenie: )

Well, the RUC says yes...

U4hCX.gif

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Dawson or Cheeze, correct me if I am wrong, but would not the snow fly rather far south as currently modeled by the NAM?

The 850's are rather south and I noticed the qpf is more down that way... say MCN or Warner Robbins. Any thoughts for those S. GA folks?

My question too, 316. Nam looks to give us Fall Line folks(Columbus to Macon to Augusta) a chance at something more than a few flurries, as 850s look well south of us, but at .10", not much more, but surface temps look iffy.( yes, I know, it snows above 32deg, and in fact it never got below 36 the whole 3/1/09 storm and I got 3 inches here).

Cheez, Dawson, et al, thoughts?

EDIT: Thanks Dawson, Cheez.

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Someone else may have already said this but the storm looks like it's going due east or maybe i'm missing something.I'm praying everyone in the southeast gets the storm they want .AMAN.

I know...right? It seems that there will be some places from Tx to OK and on that will see bust potential with their forecasts. It does appear to be moving more easterly. We shall see in a few hours.

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21z SREF not looking so hot... But one has to consider it is weighted roughly 20% on the ETA. Actually prefer the ARW as it is a newer model, better than the NMM (think NAM higher res in the short term WRF type), and continues with that heavier axis through the southern Coastal Plain of NC. Granted, 0z NAM sucks with a sharp cutoff, which would fit the bill of a weak transfer further offshore, and has support. But if anything, we have seen our southern stream come in stronger than initially progged, and the EC, yes the mother of all deterministic forecasting in the 5-7 day range, loose yet another solution only to see all the guidance converge on a less extreme solution within 48hrs, pretty much game time folks, Winter Storm Watch Up, not sure a warning will verify though! :popcorn:

f60.gif

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Part of the latest HPC Storm Summary Message:

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...THEN

SOUTH INTO MEXICO. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD

SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NEW MEXICO INTO

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME ONE

FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL

CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY DANGEROUS AND LOW WIND CHILL

TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DRIFTS TO

FIVE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. WHITE OUT OR NEAR BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS...IF NOT

IMPOSSIBLE.

:popcorn:

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WOW

Part of the latest HPC Storm Summary Message:

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...THEN

SOUTH INTO MEXICO. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD

SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NEW MEXICO INTO

OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME ONE

FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL

CONTINUE TO CREATE VERY DANGEROUS AND LOW WIND CHILL

TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DRIFTS TO

FIVE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. WHITE OUT OR NEAR BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS...IF NOT

IMPOSSIBLE.

:popcorn:

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The hardest part for me to comprehend in all of this is the gfs was right. Every storm this year has gone the same way. The euro shows one thing and the gfs something else. After a day or two the gfs starts moving towards the euro solution. Of course, this is the time the gfs is going to be right. Kudos to the gfs this round! Hopefully someone in the SE can get a surprise but I'm not holding my breath...Good luck everyone!

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0z RGEM p-type graphic is up, this map pretty much exemplifies it, no real handoff and a non-existent transfer... Better than most guidance, but seems a little bullish atm, and that is saying a lot, in the negative sense. :thumbsdown:

I_nw_r1_EST_2011020900_030.png

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

SE NC looks to be the big winner, Clinton NC ftw, towards Richlands

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