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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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yep, flatter aloft through 24, which should translate east in the not so moist sense... Not a good shift, but given the ingest, would like to see more stations in for the GFS before jumping off of Iso's fail-boat, with rummer has it, eyewall is captaining tonight.

Mixed message, are those stations out, are only ingest up to a certain level? No RAOB recap, and am left wondering a big bag of mixed fail along with WTF... :huh:

Maybe they took the night off :lmao: Wild message.

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This storm is going to be epic! The GFS starts to slowly come around with more QPF, then the wet NAM decides to take the GFS's old place. This storm is really beginning to be a waste of everyone's time. Should I even call it a storm? lol, cold fronts give more moisture than this piece of ...

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Before everyone cliff dives- the 00Z WSI RPM got much better, at least for north GA, and the 21Z SREF also is a lot wetter than the new NAM. The fat lady has not sung- yet.

Well that's good to hear. I'm done for the night. Hopefully I am in for a surprise in the morning. Thanks for you and Dawson doing some play by play.

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This storm is going to be epic! The GFS starts to slowly come around with more QPF, then the wet NAM decides to take the GFS's old place. This storm is really beginning to be a waste of everyone's time. Should I even call it a storm? lol, cold fronts give more moisture than this piece of ...

Yeah, tracking this system (LOL...more like a clipper) is becoming much more stressful than it's worth. One model will turn dryer than another one at the same time will turn wetter. I might as well look at the birds in my backyard to figure out what's going to happen instead.

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Before everyone cliff dives- the 00Z WSI RPM got much better, at least for north GA, and the 21Z SREF also is a lot wetter than the new NAM. The fat lady has not sung- yet.

I feel the same way Cheez. There is still time. However., (halfway being comical) The fat lady (all 800pds worth) is standing on top of Burgers triangle of snowless hell (my county sits almost in the middle of that) and ready to jump on top and squash me and Burger and Foothills to death...

LMAO. :lightning:

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Latest model guidance has really backed off of QPF amounts in the FEB. 9-10 time frame. Weakened low pressure getting sheared has caused dramatic changes in mid term forecast. Temps look to be less favorable for major accumulating snow as well as the lighter QPF. Currently going with updated models to show the updated map. Any necessary adjustments in future runs will be based on 24hr. increments.

MIDSOUTHWX

feb9-10weathermap-1.jpg

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At hr 27hr (3z Thursday) there is more 90%rh and Omega in N GA.

I know...I'm grasping for straws here but I've got to eeek out 1.1" to get my double digits season total.

NAM snowfall map off of Wright Weather says the only county in GA to get 1" is the extreme northwestern two counties...just those two. LOL .

It paints me at >.1" snow but less than .5" of snow. LOL.

Before everyone cliff dives- the 00Z WSI RPM got much better, at least for north GA, and the 21Z SREF also is a lot wetter than the new NAM. The fat lady has not sung- yet.

aauugghh - quite messing with my head lol

At this point I'm looking for anything positive. I'm finding it difficult to stay optimistic that I'll even get 1".

yeah, its not looking too good for that last inch (i am assuming we are going to start running out of chances soon as mid feb approaches)

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Well being new here and not very knowledgeable about models I can't say much about whats going to happen. I can say that I live in the dreaded bermuda triangle of snow and I doubt I see anything from it. I say bring on the spring!

Welcome!! I am a longstanding slave to the Triangle. I always think of the "Glory days of 2000-2004" before the walls of the Triangle were constructed. If you can, put up your location and also enter your airport code on your profile (helps with obs). Thanks and welcome again!

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I think at this point we can abandon the GFS and NAM- the SREF, GGEM, SREF and other high resolution models will be the way to go. The reason there is still flip-flopping is that the strung out shear vorticity in the West is forecast to consolidate into a more coherent vort max in the OK area, then shear out as it comes east. Any little change in this delicate scenario will have effects on qpf-I do not think big changes to very wet or totally dry are very likely, but we will probably fluctuate between T-1" and 2-3" for a while yet.

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Welcome!! I am a longstanding slave to the Triangle. I always think of the "Glory days of 2000-2004" before the walls of the Triangle were constructed. If you can, put up your location and also enter your airport code on your profile (helps with obs). Thanks and welcome again!

Thanks! I put my location in my profile as well as the airport code. Hopefully it shows up here pretty soon.

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Argh...I had hopes for this system at 5 PM when it was looking wetter and wetter...now I'm bitter that Oklahoma is sucking up all the storm and we're going to miss out....and I really don't believe that there is anything after that...I love spring and all, but our winter is so short down here as it is, I was hoping for one more

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can someone explain to me why is it that when a storm goes north or is a lakes cutter or apps runner north of here the storm explodes. you never hear about the storm being sheared and all that jaze. what is it with these southern storms or i should say a cold front brings more snow or a northwest event at the tenn. line than this so called storm. it just seems easier for the storm to blow up going north of here with hardly ever anything bothering it.:banned:

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I think at this point we can abandon the GFS and NAM- the SREF, GGEM, SREF and other high resolution models will be the way to go. The reason there is still flip-flopping is that the strung out shear vorticity in the West is forecast to consolidate into a more coherent vort max in the OK area, then shear out as it comes east. Any little change in this delicate scenario will have effects on qpf-I do not think big changes to very wet or totally dry are very likely, but we will probably fluctuate between T-1" and 2-3" for a while yet.

Great post nado, going to depend on how much it consolidates over central OK, and noted in the above...

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Aww maayyaan...to rub salt in the wounds, GSP has changed my forecast to:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Before, it was all snow. I will not say "next" until tomorrow though...

:lightning:

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Aww maayyaan...to rub salt in the wounds, GSP has changed my forecast to:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Before, it was all snow. I will not say "next" until tomorrow though...

:lightning:

Same for me too! I'd like to know how rain and snow if it's cold enough...I don't get it.

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hey bro andy said don't pay attention to other sources tonight saying anything about rain its going to be either dry or snow, to cold in upper atmosphere for rain.

Aww maayyaan...to rub salt in the wounds, GSP has changed my forecast to:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Before, it was all snow. I will not say "next" until tomorrow though...

:lightning:

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Fixed. :P

Aww maayyaan...to rub salt in the wounds, GSP has changed my forecast to:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow fail before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Before, it was all snow. I will not say "next" until tomorrow though...

:lightning:

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Rankin local met here Brad Panovich says the biggest problem for us is the transfer of energy to the coastal low. I am in cornelius and I see you are in belmont. He is really the only loca met I trust around here.

Thanks Cornsnow. Thats awesome (where you live). Maybe this thing can form in a better location to limit that transfer. So many things can go wrong right now (for better or for worse).

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Here is my call for GA

EmersonGA gets 1.5 putting him in to double digits for this year!!

I get an inch and my wife gets mad because I spend so much time on the board.

Dawsonwx listens to my stupid IMBY questions via PM

Dixieblizzard gets almost three inches and he hosts a big americanwx.com party at his swanky pool :thumbsup:

LOL! You know, we may have to do just that! Name the weekend......after the water gets into, at least, the 70's anyway!

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