Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Alright...I have been looking at radar vs forecasts and I am starting with Dallas Tx: Here is their forecast for tonight: Tonight: Rain before 3am, then rain, snow, and sleet. Low around 27. East northeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible Here is the radar: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true I could be wrong, but I do not see, judging from the radar, how that is starting at 3:00am? This brings my next question...is the low tracking as forecasted by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 how much for havelock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The 00z started stronger and in 3 hours it really weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 how much for havelock? 12-18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here is my call for GA EmersonGA gets 1.5 putting him in to double digits for this year!! I get an inch and my wife gets mad because I spend so much time on the board. Dawsonwx listens to my stupid IMBY questions via PM Dixieblizzard gets almost three inches and he hosts a big americanwx.com party at his swanky pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here is my call for GA EmersonGA gets 1.5 putting him in to double digits for this year!! I get an inch and my wife hubby gets mad because I spend so much time on the board. Dixieblizzard gets almost three inches and he hosts a big americanwx.com party at his swanky pool Bump on the pool party!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 how much for havelock? Stop asking imby questions iso our you will be 5 posted, no more model output for you... mostly RN with maybe a changeover around 7am Thurs, and inch or two at best after that, don't pin the fail-boat on it though, keep the AC on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 00z NAM says, "all aboard the fail train!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here is my call for GA EmersonGA gets 1.5 putting him in to double digits for this year!! I get an inch and my wife gets mad because I spend so much time on the board. Dawsonwx listens to my stupid IMBY questions via PM Dixieblizzard gets almost three inches and he hosts a big americanwx.com party at his swanky pool That was a good one. Got me laughing on that one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Stop asking imby questions iso our you will be 5 posted, no more model output for you... mostly RN with maybe a changeover around 7am Thurs, and inch or two at best after that, don't pin the fail-boat on it though, keep the AC on. so i should expect 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Ill take that Canton. I wonder if Dixie's pool is heated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 00z NAM says, "all aboard the fail train!" Don't jump ship yet....its only out to 24 hours and has more Omega in TN and more 90%RH in TN at 0z Thursday. That is more than the 12z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 00z NAM says, "all aboard the fail train!" You are probably a ga-zillion hours ahead of the NCEP maps, but at hour 18, you can just tell (while waiting for the next frame) that hour 24 will be fizzle my dizzle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 lol jeez the 00z NAM looks even worse. Gotta love when it's the MA or NE depending on a NW trend to screw us it's like our low has rocket power...when the SE has a good setup and needs the NW trend it gets lead shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 At hr 27hr (3z Thursday) there is more 90%rh and Omega in N GA. I know...I'm grasping for straws here but I've got to eeek out 1.1" to get my double digits season total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Don't jump ship yet....its only out to 24 hours and has more Omega in TN and more 90%RH in TN at 0z Thursday. That is more than the 12z run.... Too scientific for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It's going to trend NW. That NW trend is due. Watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Too scientific for this LOL....but the QPF is looking pathetic though.....:gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 00z NAM looks pretty good aloft. Surface map is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NAM is horrible- barely .05 here, precip totally broken up by 09Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 This run isn't even good for eastern Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 giant gaping fail hole right over central and 2/3 or WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NAM is horrible- barely .05 here, precip totally broken up by 09Z Your not kidding.... At this point it's going to take a freak surprise to get more than 1" in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 We can get thunderstorms in the summer that dump over an inch but can't even get .10 from a whole system in winter. Hey, Gulf of Mexico don't just sit there boring me to death. Do something already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Reenactment of us vs. the models today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 This run isn't even good for eastern Carolinas. yep, flatter aloft through 24, which should translate east in the not so moist sense... Not a good shift, but given the ingest, would like to see more stations in for the GFS before jumping off of Iso's fail-boat, with rummer has it, eyewall is captaining tonight. NOUS42 KWNO 090121ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0117Z WED FEB 09 2011 00Z RAOB RECAP... DDC/72451 - 10142. GYX/74389 - 10150. MZT/76458 - 10159. MZL/76654 - 19159. KPP/78970 - 19159. PPG/91765 - 10159. YAK/70361 - 10142. YSA/71600 - MISSING PART B. CWD CONTS.. NCEP..NWSTG..NCF AND NWS SOUTHERN REGION WILL PARTICIPATE.. DUE TO WINTER STORM ACROSS SRN REGION.. THRU 10/13Z. $$ NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Mixed message, are those stations out, are only ingest up to a certain level? No RAOB recap, and am left wondering a big bag of mixed fail along with WTF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NAM snowfall map off of Wright Weather says the only county in GA to get 1" is the extreme northwestern two counties...just those two. LOL . It paints me at >.1" snow but less than .5" of snow. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeah, I've been noting the talk about the E half of GA/Upstate/WNC being skipped over due to the low transfer. I'd never begrudge others their snow, but I would be kinda irked if we got a dusting or so while to our west and well to our east they got well over that much. Dallas is progged to get another 1-3" by the way...they've been having an awesome pair of winters considering they avg about 2"/year. since that gap is in so many of the models its hard to ignore. sigh. but it is certainly hard to take lol. i just want one more inch this year and i will be happy. get some snow in each month and go out with a bang i got that icky feeling with that RPM, if it keeps widdling it away over night there wont be anything left tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NAM snowfall map off of Wright Weather says the only county in GA to get 1" is the extreme northwestern two counties...just those two. LOL . It paints me at >.1" snow but less than .5" of snow. LOL. It's gonna be a shame if you're the big winner out of all of this...not because everyone else looses but that you are forced to be happy with a half inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The 0z NAM snowfall map does not even paint any 1" of snow anywhere in eastern NC. Now I'll say what I usually say....its the NAM (Not Accurate Much).....next.... On to the GFS........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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