ams30721us Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW my first call...Thought about tweaking these up some in some places but will await the 00z data set first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sending my bit of good mojo for the SE crew! It helped when I changed my avatar before the Christmas Storm was progged to come back with Cold Rain's beginning of the next thread talking about it. Here's to seeing good trends on the 0z. Btw, I will put out a call map of my own sometime tomorrow. It will either be on this thread or one set aside for call maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Anyone notice on the last couple or three runs of the Gfs it is trying to spin a low near the favored blocking regions for a bit next week around the 14th and 15th, and the gfs nao mean spagetti map has one member, at least, heading due south near the 14th, while a preponderance of the others are at least going neutral by the 16th. Larry says climo likes the 15th, and goofy had a storm a few days ago. It is a stuttering sputter at best but may be something to watch.... maybe. I just don't see a winter like this come to a deadend blowtorch in mid Feb....at least I don't want to see it... and I want blocking, dam'it! Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS ensembles look really good! Huge change over the past 24 hours. total precip Snowfall for the fun of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 at this point in the game i'll take the 1-3 and go home why couldn't this thing hold together all the way to the carolina coast FWIW my first call...Thought about tweaking these up some in some places but will await the 00z data set first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Having flashbacks to Dec 2000 when the coastal transfer screwed interior NC and the QPF setup shop over I-95 and points east. I know, different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 packfan i can't get any of the precip totals to come up or snowfall for the fun of it GFS ensembles look really good! Huge change over the past 24 hours or snowfall for the fun of it total precip Snowfall for the fun of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 packfan i can't get any of the precip totals to come up or snowfall for the fun of it Sorry, it's working for me. Here it is again: http://raleighwx.ame...18zp72f078.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf042.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Having flashbacks to Dec 2000 when the coastal transfer screwed interior NC and the QPF setup shop over I-95 and points east. I know, different setup. Yeah, they were calling for a foot of snow and we got partly cloudy. Van Denton on ch 8 still talks about that as being one of his worst moments as a weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 the RPM on james spann's site just zapped the snow totals in n ga on the last run it had been showing a solid 2" across almost all of n ga into the upstate until his late evening update. now its spotty and a lot less in the eastern part of the state into the upstate. starting to get that unwarm fuzzy feeling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW my first call...Thought about tweaking these up some in some places but will await the 00z data set first... [/quot looks good Cedric! I told my wife she has about a 50/50 chance of working Thursday. (she teaches in Cherokee county). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeah, they were calling for a foot of snow and we got partly cloudy. Van Denton on ch 8 still talks about that as being one of his worst moments as a weatherman. They were calling for 6-8" here in CLT. We ended up with zilch. Jim Cantore even reported from Panthers Stadium (Damn Cantore curse). I recall the models showing a lot of qpf, awesome temps, the whole nine for this area, and we still got screwed. I do remember driving to Greenville that Monday and seeing 5" on the ground. I had just become a member with the Wright Weather board a couple of months earlier. Good times (except for that storm) with some AWESOME WINTERS in the early 2000's!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Well good luck to the eastern sections, looks like this one just isn't our storm. I'll be hoping for a miracle tonight and probably dreaming of the snow that wasn't meant to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS ensembles look really good! Huge change over the past 24 hours. total precip Snowfall for the fun of it What is a HUGE change? Last friday we were talking 12-15 inches and now a dusting from a flurry? That's a HUGE LETDOWN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like the GFS has clobbered the Euro in the 5 day range for this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like the GFS has clobbered the Euro in the 5 day range for this event.. Yep kudos to the GFS it sniffed it out and really nailed it barring some miraculous turn around at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 What is a HUGE change? Last friday we were talking 12-15 inches and now a dusting from a flurry? That's a HUGE LETDOWN!!! I guess I'm a cup half full kind of person because I thought they looked good. Yesterday they were showing nothing to a couple hundredths (for my backyard) and now they show .10-.25. I would be happy with an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 They were calling for 6-8" here in CLT. We ended up with zilch. Jim Cantore even reported from Panthers Stadium (Damn Cantore curse). I recall the models showing a lot of qpf, awesome temps, the whole nine for this area, and we still got screwed. I do remember driving to Greenville that Monday and seeing 5" on the ground. I had just become a member with the Wright Weather board a couple of months earlier. Good times (except for that storm) with some AWESOME WINTERS in the early 2000's!! The memories of the early 2000 winters will be something that stays in my mind for the longest time. Just didn't like our crippling Dec. 2002 ice storm that we had along with our fantastic snow events. Always seems like here in the CLT region we were able to get snow when the opportunity was there and now it's hard-pressed to get even an inch here. Still, one can't complain about this winter though and I'm pretty much content with what I have for total accumulations this year. Anything extra is merely a bonus and nothing more. Still feel as though based on long range, we may (keyword may) get back into a cold and stormy pattern from late February into early March. For now, I will gladly take a warm period to get outside and get some bike rides in. EDIT: Fixed packfan. Got caught up with my train of thought while typing haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The memories of the early 2000 winters will be something that stays in my mind for the longest time. Just didn't like our crippling Dec. 2002 ice storm that we had along with our fantastic snow events. Always seems like here in the CLT region we were able to get snow when the opportunity was there and now it's hard-pressed to get even an inch here. Still, one can't complain about this winter though and I'm pretty much contempt with what I have for total accumulations this year. Anything extra is merely a bonus and nothing more. Still feel as though based on long range, we may (keyword may) get back into a cold and stormy pattern from late February into early March. For now, I will gladly take a warm period to get outside and get some bike rides in. Did you mean content or contempt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I guess I'm a cup half full kind of person because I thought they looked good. Yesterday they were showing nothing to a couple hundredths and now they show .10-.25. I would be happy with an inch of snow. Don't get me wrong I love Snow but I am also in the business of plowing when it comes. Now that it is a minor event I am ready to move on toward spring. I would love to see another big one but a dusting just doesn't do nothing for me. Hopefully your area will get it!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 folks, stop looking at the models. Watch the radar returns. Models have sucked this winter. Most folks in NC should see a few inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 the RPM on james spann's site just zapped the snow totals in n ga on the last run it had been showing a solid 2" across almost all of n ga into the upstate until his late evening update. now its spotty and a lot less in the eastern part of the state into the upstate. starting to get that unwarm fuzzy feeling lol Yeah, I've been noting the talk about the E half of GA/Upstate/WNC being skipped over due to the low transfer. I'd never begrudge others their snow, but I would be kinda irked if we got a dusting or so while to our west and well to our east they got well over that much. Dallas is progged to get another 1-3" by the way...they've been having an awesome pair of winters considering they avg about 2"/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like the GFS has clobbered the Euro in the 5 day range for this event.. I would not say that just yet. We still will not REALLY know until lunch time tomorrow. For all we know, this may trend more in our favor overnight. However, I DO see the writing on the wall and the coffin is closed, but not nailed yet. Lets hope for the best and expect the worst at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 folks, stop looking at the models. Watch the radar returns. Models have sucked this winter. Most folks in NC should see a few inches out of this. lol I wish I had your optimism. I won't deny we might pull some rabbit out of hat, but this is a different setup. We aren't going to get a really big low riding along then up. Just doesn't look like it's in the cards for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 The RUC runs have been fairly interesting from 20z to 00z. Each run it initializes stronger than the previous run only to continue weakening which is expected. I think we may have flattened out our upward progression throughout the day. I think the RGEM might be best case and the latest RPM worst case at this point and I would take a blend of the two. It's fair to note that both the SREF's and RUC have both ranged from pretty good to terrible this season even during events where they are dry yet snow is falling. Cliff diving is premature. The evening is young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 folks, stop looking at the models. Watch the radar returns. Models have sucked this winter. Most folks in NC should see a few inches out of this. Most NC folks know how often we get a huge dry slot. In the past, radar returns have shown a wall of water heading towards us only to have it suddenly disappear. Bring on spring and 70 degree temps! BTW...is there a thread for spring and summer predictions yet? The Farmer's Almanac is calling for a hurricane in June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yeah, I've been noting the talk about the E half of GA/Upstate/WNC being skipped over due to the low transfer. I'd never begrudge others their snow, but I would be kinda irked if we got a dusting or so while to our west and well to our east they got well over that much. Dallas is progged to get another 1-3" by the way...they've been having an awesome pair of winters considering they avg about 2"/year. Man this was last year for from about me to Robert. So used to it now my cognitive dissonance just kicks in and I pretend there was never a storm to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I would not say that just yet. We still will not REALLY know until lunch time tomorrow. For all we know, this may trend more in our favor overnight. However, I DO see the writing on the wall and the coffin is closed, but not nailed yet. Lets hope for the best and expect the worst at this point. don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for the best. But the GFS could verify much better than what the euro was showing 5 days out. In a 12 round fight I would take the Euro all day. In my opinion it lost this round. I'm just talking 5 day verification, nothing closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 folks, stop looking at the models. Watch the radar returns. Models have sucked this winter. Most folks in NC should see a few inches out of this. I am not trying to dampen your spirits but I doubt very seriously we going to get a few inches, maybe the mountains but not in the piedmont. I hope you are right but I have seen this way too many times if it not there its not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Man this was last year for from about me to Robert. So used to it now my cognitive dissonance just kicks in and I pretend there was never a storm to begin with. Haha I remember the March 09 storm, heavy accum to my west, south, and east and a short lived dusting IMBY. Interesting fact-Birmingham officially has only gotten 2" of snow this winter (obviously just north of the city has had far more). If we had as many weenies from that area as we do in GA/SC/NC there would be some major breakdowns! Back on topic, the 0Z runs should hopefully cluster in on a solution. At this point I'd expect FFC to issue advisories from just south of ATL-AHN north tomorrow morning (not that I agree with this, it's just what I think they'll do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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