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Feb. 8-12 Model Discussion Part III


beanskip

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Its also a good idea to take a peak at water vapor and see if the cloud motions seems to be doing what the models are showing. The 18z showed the current s/w basically shifting eastward by this point and not digging down further until around 24 hours... water vapor argues otherwise.

http://climate.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html

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Its also a good idea to take a peak at water vapor and see if the cloud motions seems to be doing what the models are showing. The 18z showed the current s/w basically shifting eastward by this point and not digging down further until around 24 hours... water vapor argues otherwise.

http://climate.cod.e...-WV24.loop.html

Thx for the link Phil! And all the good disco today and where is your RED TAG??Can't believe you still don't have one.

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One trend I'm noticing with the RUC is to back off on the CAA out in front of the "storm."

For example, compare the 19z RUC at 11 hoursto the 22 RUC at 8 hours.

Look at the 850 temps in the Carolinas.

ON the 19z run, the -12C line straddled the Va/NC line. On the 22z RUN, it's the -9C line that is in the about the same spot.

If this trend continues, one would think it would be easier for moisture to overcome the cold air. (of course, this might NOT be a good trend for our friends down east).

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According to the GFS (which never had the LP lower than 1004mb) it suppose to become just a blob of LP at 1012 in about 12-16 hrs

Well, I"ll be wating to see if that model is right...although, I'll have to read it through you guys, because for the life of me cannot figure out some of the maps ya'll use!

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ha! Thanks. I have learned so much over the past two winters. This is what makes a southern snow fun!

Great post WeatherNC!

Thanks, update your profile with location, it helps immensely considering this is a wx board and we are all separated somewhat. :) Top left under "The American Weather Forums" click the first down hatch, then click "My Settings" then "Profile" and then "Change Profile Information" edit under the location header.

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Around 2pm, the NWS had only a 20% chance of snow for us on Wed Night. I see they've upped it to 30% and added 20% for Thursday morning.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow, mainly between 9pm and 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday: A slight chance of snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 39. North wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I wonder if this will change:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-091200-

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-

DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-

MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-

328 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT

NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND DRY AIR NEAR THE GROUND... LITTLE

TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS

NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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Its also a good idea to take a peak at water vapor and see if the cloud motions seems to be doing what the models are showing. The 18z showed the current s/w basically shifting eastward by this point and not digging down further until around 24 hours... water vapor argues otherwise.

http://climate.cod.e...-WV24.loop.html

This system seems to be materializing stronger than thought? Hopefully that bad boy can stay closed a lot farther than progged (was it ever shown to close off?) and nail the SE. Time will tell. This has been a fun, unique storm to track. It will be interesting to see how the models verify... :popcorn:

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18z GFS ensemble mean is drier than the 12z, but still much better than other prior runs.

One thing to remember when looking at the ens mean, is that it is based on an avg of the lower res op, with initial conditions slightly varied to account for small scale changes in the atmosphere at initialization. As time is stepped, the members can offer wildly different solutions, but given the short term, and the fact all have been wetter than the op, with run-to-run continuity tells us something is askew. Just based on this mean, and the one previous, axis of heavier SN dominant type QPF is coming into focus, likely along the northern one-third of AL, then into NW GA, then a second axis through the southern coastal plain of NC. This has support from other guidance, and may be a case where areas to the NW of ATL see more than areas to the NE. Similar in E NC too, although we are dependent on the Atlantic coastal, whereas areas in AL and GA have a Gulf tap. The general agreement atm is for the Gulf low that forms around the southern tip of LA to weaken as it moves towards Tampa Bay. And another low forming SE of ILM that should exit stage right to the ENE. Different players in question and each will have a particular impact on the mentioned areas, with the upstate of SC and W NC likely being the area of most question given the transfer, if any, between the two.

post-382-0-72669300-1297209877.png

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Hey y'all - Been following along all winter but just now got around to actually signing up. Not a met, but I do provide that service to my immediate neighbors, who trust me more than the local guys on 2, 5, 11 & 46.

I'm thinking 2.5-3" for Atlanta for this storm (I'm in the City)...intrigued by the discussion coming out of Birmingham and carefully watching those observations out of Okla & my old home state, TX.

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Yea the RUC has come off its high horse and is now much more in line with the current model guidance. Not the best of trends if you wanted to see a much more amplified solution. sad.gif

yep - so far the last gasp at a turnaround for a lot of us seems to be unlikely. that simulation is painful to watch how the snow just dwindles away as it heads east. nowcast wont really work until the very end since it should look robust into al before it starts to weaken so it will look 'good' til the very end :banned:

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Yea the RUC has come off its high horse and is now much more in line with the current model guidance. Not the best of trends if you wanted to see a much more amplified solution. sad.gif

Wait till 0z ingest before jumping ship Phil, as the changes in fresh initialization parameters could swing it either way comparing the 0z Tues vs 12z Tues american runs. And yeah, I see that trend too over the past 3-4 RUC runs in its long range 15-18hrs, not good... :yikes:

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Yea the RUC has come off its high horse and is now much more in line with the current model guidance. Not the best of trends if you wanted to see a much more amplified solution. sad.gif

I saw that Phil. Doesn't look good as far as trends go. Still have a bit of time left but that is decreasing with every passing hour.

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Wait till 0z ingest before jumping ship Phil, as the changes in fresh initialization parameters could swing it either way comparing the 0z Tues vs 12z Tues american runs. And yeah, I see that trend too over the past 3-4 RUC runs in its long range 15-18hrs, not good... :yikes:

Yep I'm waiting to see if the 00z RUC tries to trend back... keeping those fingers crossed weight_lift.gif

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