NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 POST # 384 Great post WeatherNC! Just got off the phone with the Chief about an hour ago, ... Nice Name: Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Anybody else watch Panovic on WCNC out of Charlotte? His in-house model futurecast produces snow over all of WNC from midnight Thursday AM until 6 AM. He's thinking all of the greater Charlotte area will see 1-2 inches. His model does show much heavier precip than any of these global models we consistently watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 998mb now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM at 48 Extrapolating you would think that's 1-2 inches...of course who knows...Phil I think had a link to the 6 hour panels but those come out later. Whoops forgot that was cumulative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 998mb now Nice gotta keep that baby going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z RGEM at 48 Are there any mets that get the in-between hrs between 36-48? Also can someone post the total qpf maps for the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well the 18z GFS actually did decent with initialization compared to the 18z RUC. Yea... but its been consistently too strong out to 18 hours... the key thing to watch is if the initializations are getting stronger, or if we see the 5400m heights at 500mb start appearing on the initlizations... this will tell us if we have a significantly stronger system than modeled since none of the global models have this. Looks like we have it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like we have it... Okay, call me stupid....but what do we have, can't figure that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 998mb now Indeed it is there: Great to finally get back onto the forum again. I've been keeping up with you folks through a friend of mine's computer that I've been using while waiting for UPS to deliver my at&t modem, which took them 3 weeks and failed to deliver it 3 times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Lol. No dice this time! I am with you frost nothing this time, winter is about over. I don't get excited over a flurry flying around. If its not deep enough for a plow then lets move on to spring. Wish-casting is all see going on with this one. If I am wrong GREAT but this one is a dud. Hopefully I am wrong but if not a winter storm then I rather see nothing. Pilot smoking that bad boy garage fumes!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Phil was looking for 5400 heights at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Oh man. H5 closed off? Holy cow. I never remember seeing sub 1000mb on any long or medium range models. Maybe the Euro many days ago. If I remember correctly, it brought the 999mb LP through the northern gulf weakening to 1012 near LA and going to 1004 near Pensacola. It was the run with 1" of QPF into northern GA and Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Oh man. H5 closed off? Holy cow. I never remember seeing sub 1000mb on any long or medium range models. Maybe the Euro many days ago. What could this mean to us or possibly mean to us in the next day or two? Stronger system? Just trying to learn guys, so take it easy on me with bashing and laughing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes, this storm currently looks stronger than the models were predicting. Where this leads is not my area of expertise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes, this storm currently looks stronger than the models were predicting. Where this leads is not my area of expertise! Thanks...was hoping you'd know the answer to the last part too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes, this storm currently looks stronger than the models were predicting. Where this leads is not my area of expertise! Appreciate the updates. Hoping for a good last storm if it is our last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It would really open up a lot of possibilities including more precip, warmer temps, different track... I see all these mets lurking around up here, come out, come out and give us good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 With H5 closed for the time being and a strong LP in MX, it *could* translate to a stronger surface low in the northern gulf as well as colder temperaures on the northern edge. Just amazing to see it stronger than any of the models we were looking at over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Look at how tightly packed the 850's are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What could this mean to us or possibly mean to us in the next day or two? Stronger system? Just trying to learn guys, so take it easy on me with bashing and laughing! Yep... the stronger our system is upstream, the more likely we can get higher precipitation amounts into the Carolinas and Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 With H5 closed for the time being and a strong LP in MX, it *could* translate to a stronger surface low in the northern gulf as well as colder temperaures on the northern edge. Just amazing to see it stronger than any of the models we were looking at over the weekend. You know it is exciting but we should all be careful. What we should be watching for over the next 6-18 hrs is where it goes from here both the nam and gfs have it going from a 1004mb low to a blob of LP at 1012 in the next 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Look at how tightly packed the 850's are! That is one of the tightest gradients I've seen on an SPC meso. Goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Look at how tightly packed the 850's are! I imagine Kansas is getting pretty decent ratio's right now...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Now that's what you call a temperature difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yep... the stronger our system is upstream, the more likely we can get higher precipitation amounts into the Carolinas and Georgia. Thanks ya'll...learning here very quickly and enjoying the "excitement" of possibly a stronger storm, but will also err on the side of caution too, just in case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Are there any mets that get the in-between hrs between 36-48? Also can someone post the total qpf maps for the RGEM? Not sure on the confusion with the RGEM maps. Yes, those maps are at 12 hr increments, but the precip totals are for the past 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is like the Christmas storm thread, 2nd edition. You guys that were watching the RUC and SPC mesos that night know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You know it is exciting but we should all be careful. What we should be watching for over the next 6-18 hrs is where it goes from here both the nam and gfs have it going from a 1004mb low to a blob of LP at 1012 in the next 12 hrs. Agreed, I swear this happens every storm where the storm comes in a little stronger than the modeled data. The models may be off, but they're not going to be WAY off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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