Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Mostly blackbirds or what I knew as a kid as "snow" birds. There are a few hundred Robins mixed in but mostly blackbirds. Good. You will get snow then. That is a Cold Rain guarantee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z NAM is a bit drier..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18z NAM looks slightly wetter to me for NC in general (not WNC though)@42...it's also getting more QPF in the eastern sections. As Phil alluded to this might be a good trend if it keeps it up won't allow for as much moisture being robbed by the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yep, Watches up for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 RAH has backed off even more though. Little to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 CAE..... .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST...ACROSS THE GA/FL BORDER AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT THE UPPER ENERGY AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NAM APPEARS AS THE OUTLIER AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF/NCEP ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN/ECMWF. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONGLY FORCED AND THE MAIN FORCING OCCURS ABOVE THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY INITIALLY. ANOTHER FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MAIN WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN AROUND 4 AM THROUGH 11 AM THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THROUGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS BACK TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING POPS EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF I-20 AND REMAIN MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF I-20. RELATIVELY WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS TO MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE METRO AREA. AGAIN THERE REMAINS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well this would suck for MBY-looks odd though and does match other guidance. Will ignore for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Add to this list- 15Z SREF 2.5-3" WSI RPM 3" Thanks, Cheez. ATL-AHN estimated snow for 12Z Tue runs (vs. yesterday at 12Z): CMC: 4" (vs. 1" ) JMA: 3.5" (vs.1.5") UKMET: 2.5" (vs. ~3") Euro: 2.5" (vs. 2.5") NAM: 2" (vs. 4") GFS: 1" (vs. 0") WSI RPM 3" (vs. ?) 15Z SREF 2.5-3" (vs. ?) Avg: 2.7" (vs. 2") So, the consensus is ~35% wetter than yesterday. The CMC, JMA, and GFS are wetter while the NAM is drier. UKMET is ~same. Based on this added Cheez data for the RPM and SREF, I've decided to raise my best guess for KATL and vicinity Wed. night up to 2.5" from the 2" of earlier this afternoon. If wetter trends continue, the next guess will be wetter. EDIT: The drier 18Z NAM will be ignored as it puts out only ~1" and the qpf pattern looks kind of funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Congrats Mills ACCUMULATION: ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow big coastal snows twice this winter...what are the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So, the consensus is ~35% wetter than yesterday. The CMC, JMA, and GFS are wetter while the NAM is drier. UKMET is ~same. Based on this added Cheez data for the RPM and SREF, I've decided to raise my best guess for KATL and vicinity Wed. night up to 2.5" from the 2" of earlier this afternoon. If wetter trends continue, the next guess will be wetter. New NAM and NWS FFC do not agree: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well this would suck for MBY-looks odd though and does match other guidance. Will ignore for now. jeesh - that would suck for a lot of the ga and carolina posters back yards. talk about an irritating event if we have to watch it literally snow all around us but not in oby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Watch/Warning criteria with specifics for Georgia http://www.daculaweather.com/spotter_criteria.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Thanks, Cheez. ATL-AHN estimated snow for 12Z Tue runs (vs. yesterday at 12Z): CMC: 4" (vs. 1" ) JMA: 3.5" (vs.1.5") UKMET: 2.5" (vs. ~3") Euro: 2.5" (vs. 2.5") NAM: 2" (vs. 4") GFS: 1" (vs. 0") WSI RPM 3" (vs. ?) 15Z SREF 2.5-3" (vs. ?) Avg: 2.7" (vs. 2") So, the consensus is ~35% wetter than yesterday. The CMC, JMA, and GFS are wetter while the NAM is drier. UKMET is ~same. Based on this added Cheez data for the RPM and SREF, I've decided to raise my best guess for KATL and vicinity Wed. night up to 2.5" from the 2" of earlier this afternoon. If wetter trends continue, the next guess will be wetter. EDIT: The drier 18Z NAM will be ignored as it puts out only ~1" and the qpf pattern looks kind of funky. If your going to include the Short Range ensembles (SREF), why exclude the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wow big coastal snows twice this winter...what are the odds? just in NC, SC coast is batting 0 for 3, will this break the streak?? yet to be seen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 If your going to include the Short Range ensembles (SREF), why exclude the GFS ensembles? Oh,shoot, I thought that was an operational model. SREF cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Oh,shoot, I thought that was an operational model. SREF cancel! Why not include the Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 ATL-AHN estimated snow for 12Z Tue runs (vs. yesterday at 12Z): CMC: 4" (vs. 1" ) JMA: 3.5" (vs.1.5") UKMET: 2.5" (vs. ~3") Euro: 2.5" (vs. 2.5") NAM: 2" (vs. 4") GFS: 1" (vs. 0") WSI RPM 3" (vs. ?) Avg: 2.6" (vs. 2") So, the consensus is ~30% wetter than yesterday. The CMC, JMA, and GFS are wetter while the NAM is drier. UKMET is ~same. Based on this added Cheez data for the RPM, I've decided not to raise my best guess for KATL and vicinity Wed. from the 2" of earlier this afternoon. If wetter trends continue, the next guess will be wetter. EDIT: The drier 18Z NAM will be ignored as it puts out only ~1" and the qpf pattern looks kind of funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Long time lurker first time poster. Just wanted to say I have learned a lot reading and watching all that is posted over the last few months. Thanks to all that post here and help us weather newbs learn! That being said it seems I am always smack in the middle of the bermuda snow triangle here in Cornelius, NC ( about 20 miles north of charlotte). Hopefully we can get a warm up here soon because I'm ready to hit the golf course in some good weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 304 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 ...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... .WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START AS RAIN...OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND ONLY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR CREATING DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... Think the NAM is a little south with that heavier axis which is shows in SE NC. Basing this mostly on other guidance, RGEM, GFS ens mean, Euro, etc, and the fact these systems tend to come north just a bit at this range. Best educated guess would be Lumberton-Kinston-Washington, areas south of that line may not be an all SN event, while areas to the north will likely stay all SN. Not sure on amounts yet, but a general 0.25-0.5" along that line seems reasonable at this stage. Not buying into a widespread >0.5" QPF event yet, as the overall setup does not look impressive, and as mentioned by others, there is a limit to how wet this can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Why not include the Ensembles? I chose not to include any ensemble means for short term snowfall forecasts. I don't feel comfy using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 just in NC, SC coast is batting 0 for 3, will this break the streak?? yet to be seen.... I have my fingers crossed you break the streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 KILM HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 310 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 NCZ100-101-SCZ032>034-092015- BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY- 310 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOTAL LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. SMALL CHANGES IN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE MAY MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL FORECASTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z WSI RPM backed off considerably has only an inch to 1.5 in ATL.OK, this is making me crazy- I'm out until after the 00Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 KILM HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 310 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 NCZ100-101-SCZ032>034-092015- BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY- 310 PM EST TUE FEB 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOTAL LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. SMALL CHANGES IN EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE MAY MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL FORECASTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ So you are saying there's a chance! All I can say is, here we ao again! Do I really want to get my hopes up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So you are saying there's a chance! All I can say is, here we ao again! Do I really want to get my hopes up? short answer, NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 18Z WSI RPM backed off considerably has only an inch to 1.5 in ATL.OK, this is making me crazy- I'm out until after the 00Z runs. lol, yep this is going to be a sit back and wait for it to be over. This freaking system went to hell in a hand-basket quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Afternoon discussion blurb KILM SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS A SURPRISINGLY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IN THE FACE OF GFS AND NAM AGREEING WITH EACH OTHER...BECAUSE THEY DO NOT AGREE AS MUCH WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. LARGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY...EVEN IF THE MODELS ARE ON THE MONEY...IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO TAP INTO. FGEN FORCING AT 850MB IS MAXIMIZED AROUND 06Z THU AND GENERATES DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME AFTER THAT TO FULLY OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. SFC TEMPS ARE ALSO MARGINAL FOR SNOW BUT MORE VIGOROUS LIFT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN MORE EFFICIENTLY. BEST SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW...OR SNOW AT ALL FOR THAT MATTER...IS 06-12Z THU AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 76. WITH SO MANY QUESTION MARKS...AM HESITANT TO TAKE POPS ABOVE HIGH CHANCE AT ANY POINT. THE CURRENT SNOW ACCUM GRIDS SHOW A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND WHILE THAT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MIXING AND TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...A GOOD BURST OF SNOW COULD EASILY SURPASS THAT IF THE FORCING AND THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY COINCIDE. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY NORTH AND EAST OF THE ILM CWA...BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED IN BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES. COASTAL COUNTIES COULD VERY WELL SEE A FEW FLAKES FLYING BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So, no accumulation expected, but one county over, the coast is under a Winter Storm Watch? If anything says "Who knows?" it's this tableau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Low is down to 1002mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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