beanskip Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Can't get any worse than that last thread ..... 0z GFS initialized ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 From the other thread. I don't think you are... the RUC continues to be MUCH stronger than the other american model guidance. If the European models come in stronger than their 12z runs, then I'd still say game on. With the last few events, the RUC has been far superior to both the GFS and the NAM with at least depicting precipitation. Perhaps it might score another coop here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Can't get any worse than that last thread ..... 0z GFS initialized ..... The pressure is on you, Beanskip! Bring this baby home!!! Or shall I say reel it back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Can't get any worse than that last thread ..... 0z GFS initialized ..... Seems like a world war. EURO, UKMET vs. GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just so you all know, skip has the mojo, whether or not the storm produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just so you all know, skip has the mojo, whether or not the storm produces. I'm in his corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just so you all know, skip has the mojo, whether or not the storm produces. Can't argue with that. The guy is like freaking dynamite. BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Posted this is the other thread... but the RGEM says the NAM and the GFS are out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 We probably should have started this mojo thread after the 0z GFS as we know this run will be axxtastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Folks, this thing still has plenty of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Ok Major changes in just the first 12 hours on the GFS... s/w is much stronger and already more neutral tilt. This run will not be as suppressed IMO than the last three. EDIT: never-mind... the GFS loses its major changes about 6-12 hours later... It just reverts back to the old solution. If you see hours 12-24 though, there was a major shift stronger with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 GFS is already trotting down the road to failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just got done reading about 45 pages of thread VI of the X-MAS storm. Climo wise I know these two are totally different. There is a great lesson to be learned though...... never ever say no way. Things can change very quicly in the world of weather. Sometime when you are bored read that thread. It's a hope renewer. Most of the models don't look good but I am not ready to throw in the towel on this thing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just pushed 02Z run of my model, looking at the MS area, Tupelo region still showing about 2", with Jackson around 1", of snow. Like to see how this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just got done reading about 45 pages of thread VI of the X-MAS storm. Climo wise I know these two are totally different. There is a great lesson to be learned though...... never ever say no way. Things can change very quicly in the world of weather. Sometime when you are bored read that thread. It's a hope renewer. Most of the models don't look good but I am not ready to throw in the towel on this thing yet. Link to the hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 GFS is already trotting down the road to failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z GFS @ 54 is the driest run to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Guys I hate to say it as it disappoints me greatly also, but as it appeared 2 weeks back, more than the core of winter has been done for our area. Even in the mountains, the majority of the snow cover is long way gone and the current pattern hold little confidence that we get it back other than a stray dusting or two. At least we had a good 45 days of solid winter from early December through mid-January. I'm afraid we have a false spring then dip back to a cold late March to April. We have 5 months or so of torrid heat out in the Piedmont each year, so winter is a very welcome reprieve. Thanks to the good Lord for the cooler higher elevation temperatures in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to the hope? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5462-christmas-storm-v/ This thread occurred when the models pretty much lost the storm for about 24 hours. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5730-christmas-storm-vi/ This thread brought it back at the last moment... weenies rejoiced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 GFS is still rapidly losing the moisture once its east ofthe Mississippi. The cold advection is almost continuous starting around 48 hours east of the Apps, and it generally can't snow here unless there's neutral or warm advection, we have cold advection and downslope and a very weak, and weakening 5H system that never taps the Gulf well. Atleast not progged to. I do think its too dry in Ark, Miss, Al and most of Tenn. however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Link to the hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z GFS @ 54 is the driest run to date. Not true... notice how the axis of precipitation is further north and west of 18z... this run is slighly more amplified, but the way the trends were the first 18-24 hours, it should have been a much bigger trend towards additional amplification. Baby steps. If the GGEM, UKMET, and EURO hold serve or trend stronger at 00z, I still think there is a good chance the gfs and nam are just lost in the woods waiting to be rescued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What a waste of cold air! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Guys I hate to say it as it disappoints me greatly also, but as it appeared 2 weeks back, more than the core of winter has been done for our area. Even in the mountains, the majority of the snow cover is long way gone and the current pattern hold little confidence that we get it back other than a stray dusting or two. At least we had a good 45 days of solid winter from early December through mid-January. I'm afraid we have a false spring then dip back to a cold late March to April. We have 5 months or so of torrid heat out in the Piedmont each year, so winter is a very welcome reprieve. Thanks to the good Lord for the cooler higher elevation temperatures in the summer. Keep in mind cold in late March and April would be highs in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The GFS has that Saturday system brushing the Outer Banks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Been out- now the trends are bad again I see- I am over this "storm". Bring on spring. Maybe we get an inch or so, maybe not. After this good winter, it is no biggie either way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Are we actually going to believe the American models over the foreign ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Been out- now the trends are bad again I see- I am over this "storm". Bring on spring. Maybe we get an inch or so, maybe not. After this good winter, it is no biggie either way, +1 Let the warm up begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 While we're waiting on Dr. Yes, I'm curious. Compare the 500mb vorticity 06z panel to the current water vapor loop. Does that potent looking spin now diving southeastward through western Wyoming look like what would be expected given the rather strung out look on the vorticity map? Not saying it means anything necessarily down the road. Also, just how well sampled is this region of the country. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_006l.gif Zoom in on Wyoming here. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 FWIW, UKMET is showing a 1011mb LP west of Tampa and another one off the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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