Riptide Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Monday is looking pretty toasty eh? Hopefully the clouds will stay away and that 15% from SPC will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 The NAM is still awfully slow with that 500 feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 The GFS is not as wound up with the NAM with the 500 feature. Looks pretty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 i think the gfs is wrong.. the nam and euro look fairly similar to eachother still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 i think the gfs is wrong.. the nam and euro look fairly similar to eachother still SREF is on board with the NAM/Euro solution as well. Some really big differences from the different members, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 SREF is on board with the NAM/Euro solution as well. Some really big differences from the different members, though. persistence ideas say that we're not likely to get jackpotted with a low riding right next to us. i mean sure that'll burn at some point, but for now i have a hard time buying it.especially in a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 SREF is on board with the NAM/Euro solution as well. Some really big differences from the different members, though. SREF SPC parameters look better than the last few runs on the 09z run. That's encouraging I guess. Still would like to see it come in before nighttime. The slight risk is also encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 SREF SPC parameters look better than the last few runs on the 09z run. That's encouraging I guess. Still would like to see it come in before nighttime. The slight risk is also encouraging. i wonder if there is a correlation between higher than avg slight risks early and the rest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I still like the storm, but I'm not a fan of how the UL vort track has flattened considerably. Push that thing north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 i wonder if there is a correlation between higher than avg slight risks early and the rest of the season Perhaps non scientifically lol. I have noticed that there have been years when SPC likes to hand out risks more easily than other years. I remember years when we'd always get SEE TEXTED only to have a decent line come through and vice versa with slights and nothing happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Perhaps non scientifically lol. I have noticed that there have been years when SPC likes to hand out risks more easily than other years. I remember years when we'd always get SEE TEXTED only to have a decent line come through and vice versa with slights and nothing happening. yeah i guess that's a valid point. probably would have to test against verified events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 yeah i guess that's a valid point. probably would have to test against verified events. In 2008 it seemed like they were really easy to give out a moderate. IIRC other than June 4, 2008 a few of the other ones underperformed locally. Not sure I have that correct, tho...2008 was good for severe in general but it seemed like after the first moderate they came frequently when we probably could have had a high end slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 I think it's similar to how the hurricane center seems to have the same approach or trend. Some years they declare every little disturbance and others we are hard pressed to see a well defined swirl with convection get defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 HPC tends to do everything they can to get a storm to follow their forecast, same with the seasonals. just imfo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 HPC tends to do everything they can to get a storm to follow their forecast, same with the seasonals. just imfo wrong office but good try. i was happy to see you learned about the blue line at the end of the a qpf panel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The upgrade to Moderate Risk out west in Day 2 showing more confidence in the overall timing of the storms... we'll see if they upgrade if as Day 1 approaches. I'm still going with 5 TOR, 15 wind 5 hail at this point as timing and track are still an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 wrong office but good try. i was happy to see you learned about the blue line at the end of the a qpf panel though. I'm Not talking about SPC, I was responding to Kenny's comment about the HPC (hurricane prediction center) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm Not talking about SPC, I was responding to Kenny's comment about the HPC (hurricane prediction center) HPC is Hydromet center. NHC is national hurricane center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm Not talking about SPC, I was responding to Kenny's comment about the HPC (hurricane prediction center) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm Not talking about SPC, I was responding to Kenny's comment about the HPC (hurricane prediction center) Oops lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 bleh I'm not sober.....no joke actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 bleh I'm not sober.....no joke actually 102 fever to raging drunk eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 102 fever to raging drunk eh? I couldn't drink when I was sick. Had a great night tho! I actually had both Mono and the Flu for a time, took me 3 weeks to recover from Mono, Flu hit me at the end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z Euro Op coming in a bit flatter+faster with the Monday storm, but it's not a major difference for our region. It's starting to capture the mesoscale temperature advection along the cold front a bit better, bringing 70s a little further north. I'm still expecting DC to punch into the 70s Monday. Timing would bring it through around 7pm Monday... seems pretty reasonable, and just about where I/we want it to max out the storm potential (if not an hour earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 12z Euro Op coming in a bit flatter+faster with the Monday storm, but it's not a major difference for our region. It's starting to capture the mesoscale temperature advection along the cold front a bit better, bringing 70s a little further north. I'm still expecting DC to punch into the 70s Monday. Timing would bring it through around 7pm Monday... seems pretty reasonable, and just about where I/we want it to max out the storm potential (if not an hour earlier). Probably a good thing that the Euro sped up. Still want that vort to be intense though so hopefully it doesn't flatten out too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I will be floating between the Philadelphia Sub-Forum and this Sub-Forum for all the coverage I can get for monday's event and future events also, as its good to have information from as many sources as I can. Good discussion for this event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Probably a good thing that the Euro sped up. Still want that vort to be intense though so hopefully it doesn't flatten out too much. It would be great to amplify it more, but at this point I'm very confident that we'll warm sector and get into the upper 60s to mid 70s. The storm itself has trended further south and/or weaker, but the temps/instability have been relatively unwavering. Lately the southern systems have been getting sheared up pretty good by the northern stream, so I'm not that surprised by the trends at this point. The lack of major shifts by most of the models is certainly encouraging, and we still have to account for the fact that the instability and northern extent of the warm sector will be underplayed up until the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 It would be great to amplify it more, but at this point I'm very confident that we'll warm sector and get into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lately the southern systems have been getting sheared up pretty good by the northern stream, so I'm not that surprised by the trends at this point. However, considering the lack of major shifts by most of the models is certainly encouraging, and we still have to account for the fact that the instability and northern extent of the warm sector will be underplayed up until the day of. So in a sense of time wise this event if any severe line forms or rolls through it would be near or after 3pm and could be as late as dinner time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 So in a sense of time wise this event if any severe line forms or rolls through it would be near or after 3pm and could be as late as dinner time? I wouldn't get that specific at this point, but 5-6pm seems to be where it wants to set up. Of course, with the model spread still somewhat significant we're realistically looking at a +/- 6 hours centered around 5-6pm with this storm. EDIT: Also, if you're interested in this storm beyond just what happens along the East Coast, there's some good discussion in the Central/Western forum as well. I've been doing some lurking there and some of the information is relevant for when it hits us downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Timing will definitely be key here. We want this thing a tad bit earlier or at the time it's progged right now. We don't want it delaying much more if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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