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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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SREF is on board with the NAM/Euro solution as well. Some really big differences from the different members, though.

persistence ideas say that we're not likely to get jackpotted with a low riding right next to us. i mean sure that'll burn at some point, but for now i have a hard time buying it.especially in a +NAO.

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SREF is on board with the NAM/Euro solution as well. Some really big differences from the different members, though.

SREF SPC parameters look better than the last few runs on the 09z run. That's encouraging I guess. Still would like to see it come in before nighttime. The slight risk is also encouraging.

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SREF SPC parameters look better than the last few runs on the 09z run. That's encouraging I guess. Still would like to see it come in before nighttime. The slight risk is also encouraging.

i wonder if there is a correlation between higher than avg slight risks early and the rest of the season

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i wonder if there is a correlation between higher than avg slight risks early and the rest of the season

Perhaps non scientifically lol. I have noticed that there have been years when SPC likes to hand out risks more easily than other years. I remember years when we'd always get SEE TEXTED only to have a decent line come through and vice versa with slights and nothing happening.

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Perhaps non scientifically lol. I have noticed that there have been years when SPC likes to hand out risks more easily than other years. I remember years when we'd always get SEE TEXTED only to have a decent line come through and vice versa with slights and nothing happening.

yeah i guess that's a valid point. probably would have to test against verified events.

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yeah i guess that's a valid point. probably would have to test against verified events.

In 2008 it seemed like they were really easy to give out a moderate. IIRC other than June 4, 2008 a few of the other ones underperformed locally. Not sure I have that correct, tho...2008 was good for severe in general but it seemed like after the first moderate they came frequently when we probably could have had a high end slight.

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HPC tends to do everything they can to get a storm to follow their forecast, same with the seasonals.

just imfo

wrong office but good try. i was happy to see you learned about the blue line at the end of the a qpf panel though. :)

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12z Euro Op coming in a bit flatter+faster with the Monday storm, but it's not a major difference for our region. It's starting to capture the mesoscale temperature advection along the cold front a bit better, bringing 70s a little further north. I'm still expecting DC to punch into the 70s Monday.

Timing would bring it through around 7pm Monday... seems pretty reasonable, and just about where I/we want it to max out the storm potential (if not an hour earlier).

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12z Euro Op coming in a bit flatter+faster with the Monday storm, but it's not a major difference for our region. It's starting to capture the mesoscale temperature advection along the cold front a bit better, bringing 70s a little further north. I'm still expecting DC to punch into the 70s Monday.

Timing would bring it through around 7pm Monday... seems pretty reasonable, and just about where I/we want it to max out the storm potential (if not an hour earlier).

Probably a good thing that the Euro sped up. Still want that vort to be intense though so hopefully it doesn't flatten out too much.

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Probably a good thing that the Euro sped up. Still want that vort to be intense though so hopefully it doesn't flatten out too much.

It would be great to amplify it more, but at this point I'm very confident that we'll warm sector and get into the upper 60s to mid 70s. The storm itself has trended further south and/or weaker, but the temps/instability have been relatively unwavering. Lately the southern systems have been getting sheared up pretty good by the northern stream, so I'm not that surprised by the trends at this point. The lack of major shifts by most of the models is certainly encouraging, and we still have to account for the fact that the instability and northern extent of the warm sector will be underplayed up until the day of.

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It would be great to amplify it more, but at this point I'm very confident that we'll warm sector and get into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lately the southern systems have been getting sheared up pretty good by the northern stream, so I'm not that surprised by the trends at this point. However, considering the lack of major shifts by most of the models is certainly encouraging, and we still have to account for the fact that the instability and northern extent of the warm sector will be underplayed up until the day of.

So in a sense of time wise this event if any severe line forms or rolls through it would be near or after 3pm and could be as late as dinner time?

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So in a sense of time wise this event if any severe line forms or rolls through it would be near or after 3pm and could be as late as dinner time?

I wouldn't get that specific at this point, but 5-6pm seems to be where it wants to set up. Of course, with the model spread still somewhat significant we're realistically looking at a +/- 6 hours centered around 5-6pm with this storm.

EDIT: Also, if you're interested in this storm beyond just what happens along the East Coast, there's some good discussion in the Central/Western forum as well. I've been doing some lurking there and some of the information is relevant for when it hits us downstream.

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