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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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I dont think it looks quite as good today as it did yesterday but it's still in the general area.

We'll have to wait and see if it's just general noise wavering back and forth or a trend to a more meh setup. As you've been saying, it's still way early but at this point it still looks ok.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 19

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1220 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510-

252100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0019.110225T1720Z-110225T2100Z/

MD

. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT

CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES

HARFORD HOWARD KENT

MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S

ST. MARYS TALBOT

MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY

$$

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The next storm is a candidate for High Risk in a similar area that yesterday's Moderate Risk was. I would imagine we'd go under a slight risk with this one (5 Tor, 15 wind 5 hail?). Looking at the current models, LL dry layer could be an issue, with high cloud bases. Will keep an eye on the mesoscale stuff as tomorrow reveals a much clearer picture.

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NAM (18z) at 84 hours looks pretty nice. Maybe a little tighter would be nice.

Ian?

It's drifted into the overnight on the NAM which is probably a negative. We always have timing issues here.

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If it were later in the season I'd say nocturnal threat? But I think it's a bit early for it. I guess if we want severe we're going to have to hope the NAM and Euro have something wrong. But I'm not liking chances at this point. As we always say here - "It's always something"

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Seems like we're in one of these patterns now, Warm up, SevereWX, then the HHW to top it off.

I could get used to this

Today was more about the synoptic wind. I don't think many places in our area at all got severe winds from the storms themselves.

If the timing can speed up a bit or slow down more into Tuesday I like out shot at severe. Otherwise, breezy behind the system.

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Today was more about the synoptic wind. I don't think many places in our area at all got severe winds from the storms themselves.

If the timing can speed up a bit or slow down more into Tuesday I like out shot at severe. Otherwise, breezy behind the system.

Both you and I were smacked with the 55-60mph gust on the back of the line,...I thought all you wanted was high winds to verify and nothing else in a severe outbreak? :P

NAM is already hinting at another high wind event behind the next storm, but I'd rather see the SevereWX than the plain wind at this point, although today was freaky.

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Both you and I were smacked with the 55-60mph gust on the back of the line,...I thought all you wanted was high winds to verify and nothing else in a severe outbreak? :P

NAM is already hinting at another high wind event ehind the storm, but I'd rather see the SevereWX than the plain wind, although today was freaky.

Oh don't get me wrong - today was extreme. I was very pleased. I'm just saying today didn't qualify as severe wx on the storm front. More synoptic winds. I'm just saying in terms of qualification.

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Both you and I were smacked with the 55-60mph gust on the back of the line,...I thought all you wanted was high winds to verify and nothing else in a severe outbreak? :P

NAM is already hinting at another high wind event behind the next storm, but I'd rather see the SevereWX than the plain wind at this point, although today was freaky.

it does not quite have the gradient yet but this run does look a little more intense right behind the low probably mainly because it's closer

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Oh don't get me wrong - today was extreme. I was very pleased. I'm just saying today didn't qualify as severe wx on the storm front. More synoptic winds. I'm just saying in terms of qualification.

agreed, was just messin ;)

Today was as bad as I've ever seen it...(Not counting 7/25 of course!) Serious bizz!

I can't believe I actually brought 7/25 up, that is untouchable.

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day3prob_20110226_0830_prt.gif

BY 28/12Z...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD BE ELONGATED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE

BETWEEN LOWER MI AND SERN MO...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD THROUGH ARKLATEX

TO S TX. BY 29/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LOWER MS

DELTA...CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AND ERN NY...MOVING OFFSHORE

MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD

LIFT NWD THROUGH MID-ATLANTIC AT LEAST A FAR AS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY

1/00Z. LESS-PREFERRED OPERATIONAL WRF IS STG OUTLIER WITH SLOWER

PROGRESS OF SFC FEATURES...AND WHEN COMPARED TO MORE CLOSELY

CLUSTERED SREF CONSENSUS...ECMWF...AND SPECTRAL PROGS.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...

DAY-3 EVENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT

VERY STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS...AS CONVECTIVE REGIME MOVES RAPIDLY EWD

TO ENEWD ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF ERN CONUS. MORE FOCUSED/INTENSE SVR

THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA...DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE

DETAILS NOT YET APPARENT.

QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SVR BOWS/LEWPS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF

PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...AS EWD

CONTINUATION OF REGIME DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK.

THIS COMPLEX MAY BACKBUILD SOMEWHAT INTO PORTIONS MS/AL/GA...OR A

SEPARATE SW-NE LINE OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THAT AREA...INVOF

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND INDICATED BY A FEW PROGS. BUOYANCY

SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS MCS MOVES

UP OH VALLEY AND EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH SOME

REJUVENATION POSSIBLE AS FOREGOING AIR MASS EXPERIENCES

DIABATIC/DIURNAL SFC HEATING. MOIST ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING IN

THESE AREAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...YIELDING SFC DEW POINTS RANGING

FROM MID-UPPER 50S INLAND MID-ATLANTIC TO MID-UPR 60S OVER MUCH OF

AL/GA.

WITH TROUGH ALOFT BEING POSITIVELY-TILTED AND STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC

FORCING LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN CONUS AND ST. LAWRENCE

VALLEY...EXPECT RATHER VEERED BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS OVER MOST OF THIS

CORRIDOR. STILL...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS THAT CAN SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL MODES...AMIDST

PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR FORCING.

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