yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Monday into Monday night looks like it has potential based on the GFS and NAM. How good is this potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Monday into Monday night looks like it has potential based on the GFS and NAM. Just looked at the GFS - advertising a pretty decent vort at H5. TOR potential maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I dont think it looks quite as good today as it did yesterday but it's still in the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I dont think it looks quite as good today as it did yesterday but it's still in the general area. We'll have to wait and see if it's just general noise wavering back and forth or a trend to a more meh setup. As you've been saying, it's still way early but at this point it still looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 How good is this potential? Nice area of difluence aloft, the vortmax passing just to our NW, looks like probably some daytime heating warming things up during the daytime and a fair bit of moisture. Combine and shake liberally and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 How good is this potential? Better than today for sure if we see some similar trends in the models going towards more unstable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 19 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510- 252100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0019.110225T1720Z-110225T2100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S ST. MARYS TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 12z GFS for 8pm Monday gets 86kts of wind to 3500 feet at DCA 70kts down to around 1800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM reflectivity at 84 hours doesn't look to shabby for this stage in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM (18z) at 84 hours looks pretty nice. Maybe a little tighter would be nice. Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The next storm is a candidate for High Risk in a similar area that yesterday's Moderate Risk was. I would imagine we'd go under a slight risk with this one (5 Tor, 15 wind 5 hail?). Looking at the current models, LL dry layer could be an issue, with high cloud bases. Will keep an eye on the mesoscale stuff as tomorrow reveals a much clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Pending better modeling, I'd think that this next event would get some better thunderstorms into our area than today but without the trailing high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 NAM (18z) at 84 hours looks pretty nice. Maybe a little tighter would be nice. Ian? It's drifted into the overnight on the NAM which is probably a negative. We always have timing issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 It's drifted into the overnight on the NAM which is probably a negative. We always have timing issues here. Good thing it's the 84 hour NAM Maybe it can drift so far it goes to Tuesday. I'll wait and see the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Ian, the 18z GFS is much faster than the NAM but it also is not as tight with the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Ian, the 18z GFS is much faster than the NAM but it also is not as tight with the vort. the euro looks closer to the nam with timing right now. monday could be quite warm tho -- 70+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 the euro looks closer to the nam with timing right now. monday could be quite warm tho -- 70+? It better trend back. I'm willing it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Slowed a bit more on the NAM. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Slowed a bit more on the NAM. Oh well. timing sucks for now but it looks pretty intense http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_078m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 nam is pretty far se with the surface low this run.. similar track to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Seems like we're in one of these patterns now, Warm up, SevereWX, then the HHW to top it off. I could get used to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 timing sucks for now but it looks pretty intense http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_078m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084m.gif If it were later in the season I'd say nocturnal threat? But I think it's a bit early for it. I guess if we want severe we're going to have to hope the NAM and Euro have something wrong. But I'm not liking chances at this point. As we always say here - "It's always something" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Seems like we're in one of these patterns now, Warm up, SevereWX, then the HHW to top it off. I could get used to this Today was more about the synoptic wind. I don't think many places in our area at all got severe winds from the storms themselves. If the timing can speed up a bit or slow down more into Tuesday I like out shot at severe. Otherwise, breezy behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Today was more about the synoptic wind. I don't think many places in our area at all got severe winds from the storms themselves. If the timing can speed up a bit or slow down more into Tuesday I like out shot at severe. Otherwise, breezy behind the system. Both you and I were smacked with the 55-60mph gust on the back of the line,...I thought all you wanted was high winds to verify and nothing else in a severe outbreak? NAM is already hinting at another high wind event behind the next storm, but I'd rather see the SevereWX than the plain wind at this point, although today was freaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Both you and I were smacked with the 55-60mph gust on the back of the line,...I thought all you wanted was high winds to verify and nothing else in a severe outbreak? NAM is already hinting at another high wind event ehind the storm, but I'd rather see the SevereWX than the plain wind, although today was freaky. Oh don't get me wrong - today was extreme. I was very pleased. I'm just saying today didn't qualify as severe wx on the storm front. More synoptic winds. I'm just saying in terms of qualification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Both you and I were smacked with the 55-60mph gust on the back of the line,...I thought all you wanted was high winds to verify and nothing else in a severe outbreak? NAM is already hinting at another high wind event behind the next storm, but I'd rather see the SevereWX than the plain wind at this point, although today was freaky. it does not quite have the gradient yet but this run does look a little more intense right behind the low probably mainly because it's closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Oh don't get me wrong - today was extreme. I was very pleased. I'm just saying today didn't qualify as severe wx on the storm front. More synoptic winds. I'm just saying in terms of qualification. agreed, was just messin Today was as bad as I've ever seen it...(Not counting 7/25 of course!) Serious bizz! I can't believe I actually brought 7/25 up, that is untouchable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 the euro looks closer to the nam with timing right now. monday could be quite warm tho -- 70+? Too bad we cant get it to stay like this, these 65-70+ degree days are a major tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 BY 28/12Z...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD BE ELONGATED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN LOWER MI AND SERN MO...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD THROUGH ARKLATEX TO S TX. BY 29/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LOWER MS DELTA...CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AND ERN NY...MOVING OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH MID-ATLANTIC AT LEAST A FAR AS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 1/00Z. LESS-PREFERRED OPERATIONAL WRF IS STG OUTLIER WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OF SFC FEATURES...AND WHEN COMPARED TO MORE CLOSELY CLUSTERED SREF CONSENSUS...ECMWF...AND SPECTRAL PROGS. ...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... DAY-3 EVENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT VERY STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS...AS CONVECTIVE REGIME MOVES RAPIDLY EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF ERN CONUS. MORE FOCUSED/INTENSE SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA...DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS NOT YET APPARENT. QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SVR BOWS/LEWPS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...AS EWD CONTINUATION OF REGIME DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK. THIS COMPLEX MAY BACKBUILD SOMEWHAT INTO PORTIONS MS/AL/GA...OR A SEPARATE SW-NE LINE OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THAT AREA...INVOF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND INDICATED BY A FEW PROGS. BUOYANCY SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH NWD EXTENT...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS MCS MOVES UP OH VALLEY AND EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH SOME REJUVENATION POSSIBLE AS FOREGOING AIR MASS EXPERIENCES DIABATIC/DIURNAL SFC HEATING. MOIST ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...YIELDING SFC DEW POINTS RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 50S INLAND MID-ATLANTIC TO MID-UPR 60S OVER MUCH OF AL/GA. WITH TROUGH ALOFT BEING POSITIVELY-TILTED AND STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN CONUS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...EXPECT RATHER VEERED BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS OVER MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR. STILL...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAT CAN SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL MODES...AMIDST PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR FORCING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Day 3 slights are a bit hard to come by over this way...Especially this early in the season. I'm surprised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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