Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 it's not even that good.. one of those thin wimpy things with a quick hard gust. if we get a low to pass like this in another 4-6 weeks we could be rockin'. Perhaps we can hang onto this pattern for a bit. These things like to repeat themselves until a major shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 ~ What time is that? I'd like to be home when the line comes through...f**k work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 What time is that? I'd like to be home when the line comes through...f**k work. See bottom of map - 16z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 See bottom of map - 16z ouch waste of a click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 From the LWX 9:30 PM AFD update THERE ARE A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS CONCERNING THE PASSAGE OFTHE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST CONCERN IS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE. IF THE SHOWERS BECOME ORGANIZED THEN DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 gfs looks nice for next week.. 850 low takes a classic tornado track for this area and we have a lot more frontrunning mild air. timing is great right now.. would probably get near 70 in this scenario. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_090m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 bob ryan didnt even mention storms for tomorrow. to me it looks like the main wind core comes in along and behind the front. so i guess there is a bit of a risk something mixes into a shower before then but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 gfs looks nice for next week.. 850 low takes a classic tornado track for this area and we have a lot more frontrunning mild air. timing is great right now.. would probably get near 70 in this scenario. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_090m.gif At least it's not 160+ hours. 90 hours is certainly within range to possibly be somewhat close to reality. Still, slippage in either direction would turn it to less favorable timing. I like the look for now though and am glad to see you optimistic...usually you're a negative nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 bob ryan didnt even mention storms for tomorrow. to me it looks like the main wind core comes in along and behind the front. so i guess there is a bit of a risk something mixes into a shower before then but we'll see. I'm more into the synoptic wind tomorrow. I think SPC still MIGHT bump a tiny area to slight simply for showers mixing down wind but probably not. See my post above re: Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Ian, H5 is pretty sharp too. A nice piece of energy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 At least it's not 160+ hours. 90 hours is certainly within range to possibly be somewhat close to reality. Still, slippage in either direction would turn it to less favorable timing. I like the look for now though and am glad to see you optimistic...usually you're a negative nancy. there's some room for drift but it seems like a more or less reasonable track. it's still probably too early to get anything crazy around here but it looks nice for now. the 500 vort is quite a bit better. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 there's some room for drift but it seems like a more or less reasonable track. it's still probably too early to get anything crazy around here but it looks nice for now. the 500 vort is quite a bit better. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090m.gif If everything holds - due to the still early timing of the season in general I'd see it as being an event like tomorrow but beefed up slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 If everything holds - due to the still early timing of the season in general I'd see it as being an event like tomorrow but beefed up slightly. dc split? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_700_090m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 dc split? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_700_090m.gif Oh lord. Of course it's going to. I need to go back and look into the one or two slight risk dates I found that were in February that I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 500mb 12z Analysis from 2/4/2006 (slight risk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 2/11/2009 (slight risk wind event (mainly west)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 3/4/2008 (decent event with a couple good reports in our area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 3/8/2008 (WTF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 um Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 0600 SPC Day 1 OTLK ...MID-ATLANTIC... SFC CYCLONE ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER OH VLY AT DAYBREAK TO COASTAL MA BY 21Z. TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS BY MID-AFTERNOON WHILE SINKING SLOWLY SWD INTO SE GA/FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS ADVECTING NWD E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST 50-55F READINGS SHOULD ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON. CLOUDS/PCPN MAY INHIBIT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...BUT IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN MATERIALIZE...EVEN WEAK AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TSTMS ALONG/E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE MORNING. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ENE ACROSS ERN VA/EXTREME SERN PA NEWD THROUGH SRN NJ AND PERHAPS BACKBUILD INTO NERN NC. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SMALL AS MAJORITY OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PASSES NE OF THE REGION BY 21Z. SHOULD A STORM BECOME SUSTAINED...BRIEF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS /ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO/ OWING TO VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN DESTABILIZATION/TIMING/EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE...SUB-CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK SVR PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 mapgirl wins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 The SPC discussion is actually quite bullish. And congrats Mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I'll switch over to the obs thread now but there's actually some decent activity starting to show up in WV headng our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The SPC discussion is actually quite bullish. And congrats Mapgirl WOOHOO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 BTW, I can see breaks in the clouds here... I don't see the sun per se, but the grey lower deck of clouds is breaking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 YODA, TT values, STAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LWX will be launching a SPL 1600z BALLOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LWX will be launching a SPL 1600z BALLOON Woo Hoo! We are in BIZ NESS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Guess the WF must be moving through... went from cloudy to blue sky with clouds in about 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Monday into Monday night looks like it has potential based on the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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