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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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it's not even that good.. one of those thin wimpy things with a quick hard gust. :P

if we get a low to pass like this in another 4-6 weeks we could be rockin'.

Perhaps we can hang onto this pattern for a bit. These things like to repeat themselves until a major shift.

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From the LWX 9:30 PM AFD update

THERE ARE A COUPLE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS CONCERNING THE PASSAGE OF

THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST CONCERN IS FOR SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER-LEVEL

DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WELL

AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY

THEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. DESPITE A LACK OF

INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE STRONG

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE

SURFACE. IF THE SHOWERS BECOME ORGANIZED THEN DAMAGING WINDS ARE

POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS

IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

INSTABILITY IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING

DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

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bob ryan didnt even mention storms for tomorrow. to me it looks like the main wind core comes in along and behind the front. so i guess there is a bit of a risk something mixes into a shower before then but we'll see.

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gfs looks nice for next week.. 850 low takes a classic tornado track for this area and we have a lot more frontrunning mild air. timing is great right now.. would probably get near 70 in this scenario.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_090m.gif

At least it's not 160+ hours. 90 hours is certainly within range to possibly be somewhat close to reality. Still, slippage in either direction would turn it to less favorable timing. I like the look for now though and am glad to see you optimistic...usually you're a negative nancy.

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bob ryan didnt even mention storms for tomorrow. to me it looks like the main wind core comes in along and behind the front. so i guess there is a bit of a risk something mixes into a shower before then but we'll see.

I'm more into the synoptic wind tomorrow. I think SPC still MIGHT bump a tiny area to slight simply for showers mixing down wind but probably not. See my post above re: Monday.

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At least it's not 160+ hours. 90 hours is certainly within range to possibly be somewhat close to reality. Still, slippage in either direction would turn it to less favorable timing. I like the look for now though and am glad to see you optimistic...usually you're a negative nancy.

there's some room for drift but it seems like a more or less reasonable track. it's still probably too early to get anything crazy around here but it looks nice for now. the 500 vort is quite a bit better.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090m.gif

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there's some room for drift but it seems like a more or less reasonable track. it's still probably too early to get anything crazy around here but it looks nice for now. the 500 vort is quite a bit better.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090m.gif

If everything holds - due to the still early timing of the season in general I'd see it as being an event like tomorrow but beefed up slightly.

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0600 SPC Day 1 OTLK

...MID-ATLANTIC...

SFC CYCLONE ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK

FROM THE UPPER OH VLY AT DAYBREAK TO COASTAL MA BY 21Z. TRAILING

THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN

APPALACHIANS...MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS BY

MID-AFTERNOON WHILE SINKING SLOWLY SWD INTO SE GA/FL PANHANDLE

TONIGHT.

SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS

ADVECTING NWD E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.

NONETHELESS...AT LEAST 50-55F READINGS SHOULD ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON. CLOUDS/PCPN MAY

INHIBIT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...BUT IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN

MATERIALIZE...EVEN WEAK AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A

CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TSTMS ALONG/E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE

MORNING. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ENE ACROSS ERN VA/EXTREME SERN PA

NEWD THROUGH SRN NJ AND PERHAPS BACKBUILD INTO NERN NC. WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SMALL AS MAJORITY OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PASSES

NE OF THE REGION BY 21Z. SHOULD A STORM BECOME SUSTAINED...BRIEF

LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BOWING LINE

SEGMENTS /ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO/ OWING TO VERY

STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN

DESTABILIZATION/TIMING/EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE...SUB-CATEGORICAL

SLIGHT RISK SVR PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME.

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