Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Another thing I want to point out is the chance for rain/storms in the early/mid afternoon after the main batch of rain goes through and the ULL moves in from the west. A dry slot between the main area of rain/storms and the ULL will help clear the skies and boost temps to the point where there's enough instability to bring storms to the region (garden variety/strong/severe not known yet). NOTE: This is just a potential. Likely scenario would be additional showers and maybe some thunder, depending on available moisture and organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 im aware... i love when people go to the events that are not common at all to make a point I certainly don't think severe is likely, I hope I didn't come off as contrary to that. A bit early to declare this one a dud though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I certainly don't think severe is likely, I hope I didn't come off as contrary to that. A bit early to declare this one a dud though not really ... we've had like 10+ days with sunshine and gusts past 40-45 mph the last 3 mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 When Wes is reading the severe thread it does not bode well for our winter weather chances from here on out . I sure don't see any snowstorms on the horizon. the pattern for the next 10 days is not a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I sure don't see any snowstorms on the horizon. the pattern for the next 10 days is not a good one. Time to head here Wes and do a little of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 it is unfortunate that it's feb.. no doubt a low like this later in the season would have a decent shot at giving us a legit tornado threat. hopefully ill end up eating my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 it is unfortunate that it's feb.. no doubt a low like this later in the season would have a decent shot at giving us a legit tornado threat. hopefully ill end up eating my words. We gotta be patient! - I think if we keep getting tracks like this (maybe we can keep this type of setup happening again and again) then we could end up with better and better shots the farther we get towards/into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 21z SREF graphics on SPC again look a tad better. We can always hope for a little excitement I guess. At the very most we will be on the extreme northern fringe. A little tongue of higher moisture and temps gets just about to DC and gets shunted off to the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 00z NAM also adds a tiny bit of hope. Brings dews into the mid 50s and temps to around or just over 60. Also, develops a pocket of around 500 j/kg MUCAPE DC east. Little pocket of neutral to slightly negative LI's as well. NAM likes Ellinwoods idea of a little something after the rain ends with the ULL perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ...ERN NC...VA...MD...DE... A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...AS BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AS WELL AS RAPID COOLING ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SHALLOW FORCED CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN FORECAST 50+ KT MEAN WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF VA...MD...AND DE COULD REQUIRE A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 If all else fails we have yet another HWW. Two within the course of a week is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 well a HWW makes it more likely I'll eat my words somewhere. we'll have to be careful to make sure the damage occurs during the random shower tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well the new SREF again makes things just a very tad bit more interesting. Brings supercell composite numbers of 3 into the area and sigtor parameter of 1 close to and SE of DC. Also brings a bit better LI swatch of 0- -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well the new SREF again makes things just a very tad bit more interesting. Brings supercell composite numbers of 3 into the area and sigtor parameter of 1 close to and SE of DC. Also brings a bit better LI swatch of 0- -1 Whats the link to that again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SREF and hi-res models showing the ULL convection as mostly showers for us... developing into some storms in E PA and NJ... maybe NE MD. Storms might miss us to the south AND north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SREF and hi-res models showing the ULL convection as mostly showers for us... developing into some storms in E PA and NJ... maybe NE MD. Storms might miss us to the south AND north I'd laugh if they issued a slight risk for us, and then we get the good ol split. Though at least I'd win the contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well the new SREF again makes things just a very tad bit more interesting. Brings supercell composite numbers of 3 into the area and sigtor parameter of 1 close to and SE of DC. Also brings a bit better LI swatch of 0- -1 SREF's also made it more interesting for mon night snow too and we how that turned out, lol. This is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 SREF's also made it more interesting for mon night snow too and we how that turned out, lol. This is a non event This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'd laugh if they issued a slight risk for us, and then we get the good ol split. Though at least I'd win the contest I think you have a decent shot. SPC generally gives a marginal slight after wording like the day 2 outlook from this morning. It'll be a BFD slight but you'll still win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 problem is behind the front we're going to downslope and dry quickly. there's not a lot of juice left for the ull. i guess some mid-lvl dyring could promote wind making it to the surface in any showers, but i think if you want any severe gusts with rain you're looknig at the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 SREF's also made it more interesting for mon night snow too and we how that turned out, lol. This is a non event It's really hard to effectively compare snow to severe when trying to fault the SREFs... the reason why the parameters are improving in this case is because the models struggle to show the full effect of LL advection with a strong LL jet. Models seem to also struggle with showing the ULL convection until the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's really hard to effectively compare snow to severe when trying to fault the SREFs... the reason why the parameters are improving in this case is because the models struggle to show the full effect of LL advection with a strong LL jet. The way my untrained mind sees this is that we get a little forced line of low topped convection (maybe not even with thunder) that brings a decent gust of wind through maybe causes some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Where is Yoda? We need some parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z GFS BUFKIT gets 62kts wind to 2000ft and has 81kts of wind at 4000ft. Windy times be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z GFS BUFKIT gets 62kts wind to 2000ft and has 81kts of wind at 4000ft. Windy times be coming. But not that windy since we just got downgraded, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 But not that windy since we just got downgraded, right? Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 ~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 at least we're seeing oranges and reds on sim radar again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 at least we're seeing oranges and reds on sim radar again Predict how many times the locally run ARW will give us a line like that before August 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Predict how many times the locally run ARW will give us a line like that before August 31st. it's not even that good.. one of those thin wimpy things with a quick hard gust. if we get a low to pass like this in another 4-6 weeks we could be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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