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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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Another thing I want to point out is the chance for rain/storms in the early/mid afternoon after the main batch of rain goes through and the ULL moves in from the west. A dry slot between the main area of rain/storms and the ULL will help clear the skies and boost temps to the point where there's enough instability to bring storms to the region (garden variety/strong/severe not known yet). NOTE: This is just a potential. Likely scenario would be additional showers and maybe some thunder, depending on available moisture and organization.

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I certainly don't think severe is likely, I hope I didn't come off as contrary to that. A bit early to declare this one a dud though

not really ... we've had like 10+ days with sunshine and gusts past 40-45 mph the last 3 mo.

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it is unfortunate that it's feb.. no doubt a low like this later in the season would have a decent shot at giving us a legit tornado threat. hopefully ill end up eating my words. :arrowhead:

We gotta be patient! - I think if we keep getting tracks like this (maybe we can keep this type of setup happening again and again) then we could end up with better and better shots the farther we get towards/into spring.

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00z NAM also adds a tiny bit of hope. Brings dews into the mid 50s and temps to around or just over 60. Also, develops a pocket of around 500 j/kg MUCAPE DC east. Little pocket of neutral to slightly negative LI's as well.

NAM likes Ellinwoods idea of a little something after the rain ends with the ULL perhaps.

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day2probotlk_20110224_0700_any_prt.gif

...ERN NC...VA...MD...DE...

A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO

INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...AS BOTH LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES STEEPEN DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AS WELL AS RAPID COOLING ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT...BUT

PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SHALLOW FORCED CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION WILL

BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN FORECAST 50+ KT MEAN WINDS

JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE

WIND AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF VA...MD...AND DE COULD REQUIRE A

SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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SREF and hi-res models showing the ULL convection as mostly showers for us... developing into some storms in E PA and NJ... maybe NE MD. Storms might miss us to the south AND north :arrowhead:

I'd laugh if they issued a slight risk for us, and then we get the good ol split.

Though at least I'd win the contest :D

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Well the new SREF again makes things just a very tad bit more interesting. Brings supercell composite numbers of 3 into the area and sigtor parameter of 1 close to and SE of DC.

Also brings a bit better LI swatch of 0- -1

SREF's also made it more interesting for mon night snow too and we how that turned out, lol.

This is a non event

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I'd laugh if they issued a slight risk for us, and then we get the good ol split.

Though at least I'd win the contest :D

I think you have a decent shot. SPC generally gives a marginal slight after wording like the day 2 outlook from this morning. It'll be a BFD slight but you'll still win.

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problem is behind the front we're going to downslope and dry quickly. there's not a lot of juice left for the ull. i guess some mid-lvl dyring could promote wind making it to the surface in any showers, but i think if you want any severe gusts with rain you're looknig at the main line.

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SREF's also made it more interesting for mon night snow too and we how that turned out, lol.

This is a non event

It's really hard to effectively compare snow to severe when trying to fault the SREFs... the reason why the parameters are improving in this case is because the models struggle to show the full effect of LL advection with a strong LL jet. Models seem to also struggle with showing the ULL convection until the short term.

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It's really hard to effectively compare snow to severe when trying to fault the SREFs... the reason why the parameters are improving in this case is because the models struggle to show the full effect of LL advection with a strong LL jet.

The way my untrained mind sees this is that we get a little forced line of low topped convection (maybe not even with thunder) that brings a decent gust of wind through maybe causes some damage.

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Predict how many times the locally run ARW will give us a line like that before August 31st.

it's not even that good.. one of those thin wimpy things with a quick hard gust. :P

if we get a low to pass like this in another 4-6 weeks we could be rockin'.

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