Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Probably garden variety ones too right? Too hard to tell the N/S cut-off from non-severe to severe storms... right now I'm thinking DC can get stronger gusts of 40-50 mph since any sort of convection will lead to an easy push of the strong LL winds to the surface (with winds of ~60 mph at 900mb to work with). If the convection stays to the south... gusts of 30-40 mph with a shot of heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Too hard to tell the N/S cut-off from non-severe to severe storms... right now I'm thinking DC can get stronger gusts of 40-50 mph since any sort of convection will lead to an easy push of the strong LL winds to the surface (with winds of ~60 mph at 900mb to work with). If the convection stays to the south... gusts of 30-40 mph with a shot of heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Yeah sounds reasonable. I just took a look at last nights GFS - still seems to like the idea for 2/28-3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeah sounds reasonable. I just took a look at last nights GFS - still seems to like the idea for 2/28-3/1 Timing may be an issue with the 28th as well... still far enough out to gain a little more favor, though. It's looking pretty solid, and we might actually be able to get some surface heating before the storms roll in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Timing may be an issue with the 28th as well... still far enough out to gain a little more favor, though. It's looking pretty solid, and we might actually be able to get some surface heating before the storms roll in! Lets do this! We can't get the magic with snow so maybe we can get the magic here for a decent severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 The 09z SREF run from SPC looks a tad more favorable for the Friday potential. Not much but at least a hair better. 12z NAM looks a bit better on the dewpoint side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The 09z SREF run from SPC looks a tad more favorable for the Friday potential. Not much but at least a hair better. 12z NAM looks a bit better on the dewpoint side of things. there wont be severe weather around here on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 there wont be severe weather around here on friday. Thanks for the heads-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 there wont be severe weather around here on friday. Likely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Thanks for the heads-up! lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 there wont be severe weather around here on friday. Looking at the WRF, it does bring a line of thunderstorms through DC on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 lolz Perhaps you can give us your analysis? I'm not saying that severe WILL happen... but to discount it completely at this point is a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Perhaps you can give us your analysis? I'm not saying that severe WILL happen... but to discount it completely at this point is a little well, I doubt SEVERE weather will happen for our area, but Tshowers and rumbles of thunder arent out of the question. The monday/tues system maybe better chance?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Perhaps you can give us your analysis? I'm not saying that severe WILL happen... but to discount it completely at this point is a little morning.. february.. stabilizing rain beforehand. booya. it's not a little fwiw, i dont count some random gusty shower hitting criteria as severe weather. i can tell it's going to be a long season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 morning.. february.. stabilizing rain beforehand. booya. it's not a little fwiw, i dont count some random gusty shower hitting criteria as severe weather. i can tell it's going to be a long season... How about the NOV17 storm? You know, the one that f**ked baltimore in their sleep... had rain ahead of it, lower sun angle, temps near 65... I'm over-simplifying this, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How about the NOV17 storm? You know, the one that f**ked baltimore in their sleep... had rain ahead of it, lower sun angle, temps near 65... I'm over-simplifying this, but still... I wasn't going to use that date necessarily as an analog, but it is definitely as an example of how much potential there is in a low CAPE/high shear environment, regardless of a "stabilizing rain" beforehand and time of the year/day. If the upper-levels and LL temp profile support it, there's no reason to throw out a day 3 threat. And Ian, I always use the NWS' definition of severe when discussing the chances for severe weather... I'm not sure why you had to make the point about not qualifying a gusty shower as severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Afternoon AFD from LWX SFC FRONT LIFTS NWD THRU RGN THRU NGT...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTGTO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RN ACRS RGN. INTENSIFYING LLVL SLY JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS NWD INTO MID-ATLC AHEAD OF WAVE OF SFC LOPRES RIDING NWD ALONG FRNT. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR N SFC FEATURE WILL GET...AS HVY RN LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG AND JUST N OF BOUNDARY. SEE HYDROLOGIC SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD PTNL. BY 12Z FRI...CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM W. MOST OF CWA SHUD BE WARM SECTOR...BENEATH A 50+ KT LLVL JET FRI MRNG AS CDFNT MOVES ACRS AREA. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR CNVTCN...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY INHIBIT DVLPMNT. GRIDS DEPICT LOW TSTM CHCS SE OF CHO-DCA-BWI LINE...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY DECENT DOWNDRAFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How about the NOV17 storm? You know, the one that f**ked baltimore in their sleep... had rain ahead of it, lower sun angle, temps near 65... I'm over-simplifying this, but still... im aware... i love when people go to the events that are not common at all to make a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I wasn't going to use that date necessarily as an analog, but it is definitely as an example of how much potential there is in a low CAPE/high shear environment, regardless of a "stabilizing rain" beforehand and time of the year/day. If the upper-levels and LL temp profile support it, there's no reason to throw out a day 3 threat. And Ian, I always use the NWS' definition of severe when discussing the chances for severe weather... I'm not sure why you had to make the point about not qualifying a gusty shower as severe. i know you think i have no clue what im talking about.. which is why you generally talk down to me on this subject. fine.. there is a CHANCE but a very small one. i dont have my own definition either.. im just saying. i dont get all worked up over some random gusty shower that hits severe criteria in one location while everyone else just gets some rain. as you know we have a big mtn chain to our west and it's still the cold season. it's a lot easier to get "early" severe weather west of the apps or well south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oh boy this thread is full of fun right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just to support the gusty shower argument here - 12z GFS BUFKIT at 11am Friday shows 60kts at 2000ft and 75kts at 3000ft. So one gust shower could bring down quite a bit of wind. CAPE virtually non existent but had been showing zero and now shows at least a sliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i know you think i have no clue what im talking about.. which is why you generally talk down to me on this subject. fine.. there is a CHANCE but a very small one. i dont have my own definition either.. im just saying. i dont get all worked up over some random gusty shower that hits severe criteria in one location while everyone else just gets some rain. as you know we have a big mtn chain to our west and it's still the cold season. it's a lot easier to get "early" severe weather west of the apps or well south of here. FWIW, I don't think we'll get severe here, either. I was simply pointing out the potential and I described the setup, which included a chance for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just to support the gusty shower argument here - 12z GFS BUFKIT at 11am Friday shows 60kts at 2000ft and 75kts at 3000ft. So one gust shower could bring down quite a bit of wind. CAPE virtually non existent but had been showing zero and now shows at least a sliver. we occasionally get early season lines of showers with no thunder that produce severe reports. i dont personally consider it to be anything to write home about, but i suppose that's possible. it's REALLY early though. those are usually march/april events. im far more interested in seeing a favorable track start to set up this time of year compared to anything of note. ellinwood and i look at things differently when it comes to severe -- he's always looking at it from a max potential way where i look for what's wrong with the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FWIW, I don't think we'll get severe here, either. I was simply pointing out the potential and I described the setup, which included a chance for severe. that's cool.. i just dont appreciate the tone of your last comment. we butted heads last svr season for stupid reasons but i thought we were past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 that's cool.. i just dont appreciate the tone of your last comment. we butted heads last svr season for stupid reasons but i thought we were past that. Apologies for the tone... I wasn't a fan of how bluntly you said "no severe" at first even though some potential exists. What I point out as potential and what I think is likely are two different things... perhaps I should make that clearer for others as to not get their hopes up. Keeping in mind what's likely to happen is what prevents me from going on weenie rampages every time the maximum potential doesn't occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Apologies for the tone... I wasn't a fan of how bluntly you said "no severe" at first even though some potential exists. What I point out as potential and what I think is likely are two different things... perhaps I should make that clearer for others as to not get their hopes up. Keeping in mind what's likely to happen is what prevents me from going on weenie rampages every time the maximum potential doesn't occur I just don't always have time to go into great depth on my reasoning -- but you should know that I've been around long enough that there is some. In an instance like this perhaps I am quicker to fully dismiss because of climo. The setup is OK but it's not that striking to me. I do like the next week chance better thus far as it has a nice 500mb signature. But alas that's too far off to think much about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I just don't always have time to go into great depth on my reasoning -- but you should know that I've been around long enough that there is some. In an instance like this perhaps I am quicker to fully dismiss because of climo. The setup is OK but it's not that striking to me. I do like the next week chance better thus far as it has a nice 500mb signature. But alas that's too far off to think much about. That's why I asked for your analysis Thanks for sharing it... while I do know you have your reasoning, I like to see what it is just in case I was wrong or there was something that I missed. While I'm not the biggest fan of weighing climo. into the shorter term, you certainly do know more about the local area than me, and it's helpful to me to hear your thoughts as it brings more information to the table with each event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Low-topped, non-convective squall line. Gusts to 31 mph. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Low-topped, non-convective squall line. Gusts to 31 mph. Next. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That's why I asked for your analysis Thanks for sharing it... while I do know you have your reasoning, I like to see what it is just in case I was wrong or there was something that I missed. While I'm not the biggest fan of weighing climo. into the shorter term, you certainly do know more about the local area than me, and it's helpful to me to hear your thoughts as it brings more information to the table with each event. well climo is not a good argument in the face of overwhelming data that goes against it, but for svr i'd side with climo saying we rarely get it in feb more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 When Wes is reading the severe thread it does not bode well for our winter weather chances from here on out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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