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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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Ohhhhhhhhh yeaaaaaaaaaah :D

Remember this?

Well... 2/3 of it is there (the warming period isn't as nice as I would like ahead of the storm).

At least it's not the GFS at 384 hours :lol:

And with 2/3 of the equation being there I'd have to assume that if that holds, one of the other factors that IS in place could compensate.

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it is a pretty track at 500/surface. verbatim we'd want it a bit quicker i think and these early season threats are difficult since you have trouble getting sun etc. it looks like a lotta rain on those maps!

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I haven't really looked - is that slight risk area and the features causing it supposed to move SE from there or E or NE?

Threat should move ENE, though CAPE will struggle on day 4. Intense LL jet SW-NE oriented through VA/Delmarva should bring in warmer temps than the models currently show. Looks like a low CAPE/high shear event with plenty of wind damage from southern PA into the Southeast. Tomorrow's day 3 will probably show a 15% in central VA through NC with 5% for DC up through southern PA.

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Threat should move ENE, though CAPE will struggle on day 4. Intense LL jet SW-NE oriented through VA/Delmarva should bring in warmer temps than the models currently show. Looks like a low CAPE/high shear event with plenty of wind damage from southern PA into the Southeast. Tomorrow's day 3 will probably show a 15% in central VA through NC with 5% for DC up through southern PA.

Those high shear/low cape events have a tendency to either be really nice for us or fail - highly variable.

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