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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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This system is quite the different beast compared to what we have been seeing, though... what plays out is up for grabs. I'm not exactly "charged and ready to go" chase-wise, but I'm keeping an eye on it for the time being.

I know what you mean. Would you put any odds on it at this point? We're getting close to it being in day 1.

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This system is quite the different beast compared to what we have been seeing, though... what plays out is up for grabs. I'm not exactly "charged and ready to go" chase-wise, but I'm keeping an eye on it for the time being.

im not sure it's all that different than the other day at least with location of features etc--fairly optimal for svr chances around here. this one looks a bit better on paper for tomorrow though perhaps. i do like persistance to some degree, though with convection it's sort of random. we should have had as much storminess north of d.c. last go around.

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I know what you mean. Would you put any odds on it at this point? We're getting close to it being in day 1.

The morning and afternoon clouds/rain make it too difficult to say anything with even a meager amount of confidence... I imagine the outlook won't look too different until we see what the morning Vis Sat looks like.

PA would be a nicer target if we can get the instability (see: ML lapse rates) to go up there... I'd much rather play closer to the UL support (which, in addition to the vort. maxm, also hints at PA possibly being near the left-exit region of a weak jet streak).

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The morning and afternoon clouds/rain make it too difficult to say anything with even a meager amount of confidence... I imagine the outlook won't look too different until we see what the morning Vis Sat looks like.

PA would be a nicer target if we can get the instability (see: ML lapse rates) to go up there... I'd much rather play closer to the UL support (which, in addition to the vort. maxm, also hints at PA possibly being near the left-exit region of a weak jet streak).

Sounds like a solid position to hold at this point. Generally when we have morning stuff around it does end up ruining our chance around here...we just have something against clearing out around these parts. I've seen it happen countless times. Either that or we break into sun with only like 30 minutes to go before show time.

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im not sure it's all that different than the other day at least with location of features etc--fairly optimal for svr chances around here. this one looks a bit better on paper for tomorrow though perhaps. i do like persistance to some degree, though with convection it's sort of random. we should have had as much storminess north of d.c. last go around.

We've got a mini closed-low dive-bombing the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, following a somewhat suppressed track partially induced by a -NAO/-AO. Not sure how about how similar this set-up is to the recent instability-induced pulse storms. Granted, I could be off in my perception... I haven't exactly been retaining the exact UL features of the recent systems, but it definitely seems like the overall track and components of the upper-levels with this system are better for severe in our region.

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We've got a mini closed-low dive-bombing the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, following a somewhat suppressed track partially induced by a -NAO/-AO. Not sure how about how similar this set-up is to the recent instability-induced pulse storms. Granted, I could be off in my perception... I haven't exactly been retaining the exact UL features of the recent systems, but it definitely seems like the overall track and components of the upper-levels with this system are better for severe in our region.

"It's always something" fits well here lol - First we've had several events with insane CAPE but other things lacking and now we have a decent dynamic situation but the CAPE will likely be lacking. Textbook DC.

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We've got a mini closed-low dive-bombing the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, following a somewhat suppressed track partially induced by a -NAO/-AO. Not sure how about how similar this set-up is to the recent instability-induced pulse storms. Granted, I could be off in my perception... I haven't exactly been retaining the exact UL features of the recent systems, but it definitely seems like the overall track and components of the upper-levels with this system are better for severe in our region.

this 500 wave is more intense but the track is similar to saturday.. we just didnt have the cold front to play with one the same day and the cold pool kinda screwed us by running ahead of the mid-lvl trigger. there were some torn warns up north.

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"It's always something" fits well here lol - First we've had several events with insane CAPE but other things lacking and now we have a decent dynamic situation but the CAPE will likely be lacking. Textbook Anywhere, USA.

FYP :P

It's rare to get a great setup anywhere, but I do agree that it's exceptionally rare to get a great setup in the Mid-Atlantic.

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"It's always something" fits well here lol - First we've had several events with insane CAPE but other things lacking and now we have a decent dynamic situation but the CAPE will likely be lacking. Textbook DC.

Expect the worst, but hope for the best! :)

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this 500 wave is more intense but the track is similar to saturday.. we just didnt have the cold front to play with one the same day and the cold pool kinda screwed us by running ahead of the mid-lvl trigger. there were some torn warns up north.

The one thing that struck me with tomorrow's system is that the UL jet, instead of being well to our north, is actually located in the base of the shortwave UL trough (and much closer to the Mid-Atlantic), which would give the low a little extra umph in creating/sustaining storms.

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Expect the worst, but hope for the best! :)

This is a remarkably well balanced post for the grizzly in training. :P:wub:

The one thing that struck me with tomorrow's system is that the UL jet, instead of being well to our north, is actually located in the base of the shortwave UL trough (and much closer to the Mid-Atlantic), which would give the low a little extra umph in creating/sustaining storms.

Stop toying with us! ;)

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nam still looks pretty nice for tomorrow tho not much more clarity if we're going to get as primed as we'd want to see--i think a step in the right direction. sref struggles to get great CAPE up into the D.C. area, but perhaps just enough. c-va to about the md border.. me in the middle? eh.. im due for another fringing.

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nam still looks pretty nice for tomorrow tho not much more clarity if we're going to get as primed as we'd want to see--i think a step in the right direction. sref struggles to get great CAPE up into the D.C. area, but perhaps just enough. c-va to about the md border.. me in the middle? eh.. im due for another fringing.

Nailbiter.

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gimme some sun ellinwoosh

We have time!...............for now.

I am pretty sure that clearing will get here eventualy

It better or I will bargain with Randy to have you banned for life. :P

1300 SPC OTLK moved the eastern edge of the SLGT risk east over the Chesapeake Bay and now includes Baltimore. 0600 had the eastern edge right over DC and the Potomac

Disco looks okay

About to take a look myself right now.

I'm holding you this, Matthew

Hmm using formal names eh? lol

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