Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 This system is quite the different beast compared to what we have been seeing, though... what plays out is up for grabs. I'm not exactly "charged and ready to go" chase-wise, but I'm keeping an eye on it for the time being. I know what you mean. Would you put any odds on it at this point? We're getting close to it being in day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 This system is quite the different beast compared to what we have been seeing, though... what plays out is up for grabs. I'm not exactly "charged and ready to go" chase-wise, but I'm keeping an eye on it for the time being. im not sure it's all that different than the other day at least with location of features etc--fairly optimal for svr chances around here. this one looks a bit better on paper for tomorrow though perhaps. i do like persistance to some degree, though with convection it's sort of random. we should have had as much storminess north of d.c. last go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I know what you mean. Would you put any odds on it at this point? We're getting close to it being in day 1. The morning and afternoon clouds/rain make it too difficult to say anything with even a meager amount of confidence... I imagine the outlook won't look too different until we see what the morning Vis Sat looks like. PA would be a nicer target if we can get the instability (see: ML lapse rates) to go up there... I'd much rather play closer to the UL support (which, in addition to the vort. maxm, also hints at PA possibly being near the left-exit region of a weak jet streak). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 The morning and afternoon clouds/rain make it too difficult to say anything with even a meager amount of confidence... I imagine the outlook won't look too different until we see what the morning Vis Sat looks like. PA would be a nicer target if we can get the instability (see: ML lapse rates) to go up there... I'd much rather play closer to the UL support (which, in addition to the vort. maxm, also hints at PA possibly being near the left-exit region of a weak jet streak). Sounds like a solid position to hold at this point. Generally when we have morning stuff around it does end up ruining our chance around here...we just have something against clearing out around these parts. I've seen it happen countless times. Either that or we break into sun with only like 30 minutes to go before show time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 im not sure it's all that different than the other day at least with location of features etc--fairly optimal for svr chances around here. this one looks a bit better on paper for tomorrow though perhaps. i do like persistance to some degree, though with convection it's sort of random. we should have had as much storminess north of d.c. last go around. We've got a mini closed-low dive-bombing the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, following a somewhat suppressed track partially induced by a -NAO/-AO. Not sure how about how similar this set-up is to the recent instability-induced pulse storms. Granted, I could be off in my perception... I haven't exactly been retaining the exact UL features of the recent systems, but it definitely seems like the overall track and components of the upper-levels with this system are better for severe in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 We've got a mini closed-low dive-bombing the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, following a somewhat suppressed track partially induced by a -NAO/-AO. Not sure how about how similar this set-up is to the recent instability-induced pulse storms. Granted, I could be off in my perception... I haven't exactly been retaining the exact UL features of the recent systems, but it definitely seems like the overall track and components of the upper-levels with this system are better for severe in our region. "It's always something" fits well here lol - First we've had several events with insane CAPE but other things lacking and now we have a decent dynamic situation but the CAPE will likely be lacking. Textbook DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 We've got a mini closed-low dive-bombing the Mid-Atlantic from the Great Lakes, following a somewhat suppressed track partially induced by a -NAO/-AO. Not sure how about how similar this set-up is to the recent instability-induced pulse storms. Granted, I could be off in my perception... I haven't exactly been retaining the exact UL features of the recent systems, but it definitely seems like the overall track and components of the upper-levels with this system are better for severe in our region. this 500 wave is more intense but the track is similar to saturday.. we just didnt have the cold front to play with one the same day and the cold pool kinda screwed us by running ahead of the mid-lvl trigger. there were some torn warns up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 "It's always something" fits well here lol - First we've had several events with insane CAPE but other things lacking and now we have a decent dynamic situation but the CAPE will likely be lacking. Textbook Anywhere, USA. FYP It's rare to get a great setup anywhere, but I do agree that it's exceptionally rare to get a great setup in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 "It's always something" fits well here lol - First we've had several events with insane CAPE but other things lacking and now we have a decent dynamic situation but the CAPE will likely be lacking. Textbook DC. Expect the worst, but hope for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 this 500 wave is more intense but the track is similar to saturday.. we just didnt have the cold front to play with one the same day and the cold pool kinda screwed us by running ahead of the mid-lvl trigger. there were some torn warns up north. The one thing that struck me with tomorrow's system is that the UL jet, instead of being well to our north, is actually located in the base of the shortwave UL trough (and much closer to the Mid-Atlantic), which would give the low a little extra umph in creating/sustaining storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Expect the worst, but hope for the best! This is a remarkably well balanced post for the grizzly in training. The one thing that struck me with tomorrow's system is that the UL jet, instead of being well to our north, is actually located in the base of the shortwave UL trough (and much closer to the Mid-Atlantic), which would give the low a little extra umph in creating/sustaining storms. Stop toying with us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 This is a remarkably well balanced post for the grizzly in training. I was able to expel some negativity elsewhere today, so I'm nice and level headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 nam still looks pretty nice for tomorrow tho not much more clarity if we're going to get as primed as we'd want to see--i think a step in the right direction. sref struggles to get great CAPE up into the D.C. area, but perhaps just enough. c-va to about the md border.. me in the middle? eh.. im due for another fringing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 nam still looks pretty nice for tomorrow tho not much more clarity if we're going to get as primed as we'd want to see--i think a step in the right direction. sref struggles to get great CAPE up into the D.C. area, but perhaps just enough. c-va to about the md border.. me in the middle? eh.. im due for another fringing. Nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Sorry to say...decided not to head out today...so DC/Mont.Co. is gonna get a split! But it seems the forecast really isn't calling for it much for points e. of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 The 03z SREF run on the SPC site was a decent amount better with instability. We'll see if that actually comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 6z LWX ARW has some light sprinkles/showers this morning and then widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon after 19z. 0z NMM has more organization, with a slow-moving line coming through 2-6z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Good clearing out west this morning... most of MD and DC stuck under overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 gimme some sun ellinwoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I am pretty sure that clearing will get here eventualy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 prediction: cloud deck stays until 1/2pm then clears just enough to get marginal parameters and storms to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 1300 SPC OTLK moved the eastern edge of the SLGT risk east over the Chesapeake Bay and now includes Baltimore. 0600 had the eastern edge right over DC and the Potomac Disco looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I am pretty sure that clearing will get here eventualy I'm holding you to this, Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I'm holding you this, Matthew Eventually being the key word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 gimme some sun ellinwoosh We have time!...............for now. I am pretty sure that clearing will get here eventualy It better or I will bargain with Randy to have you banned for life. 1300 SPC OTLK moved the eastern edge of the SLGT risk east over the Chesapeake Bay and now includes Baltimore. 0600 had the eastern edge right over DC and the Potomac Disco looks okay About to take a look myself right now. I'm holding you this, Matthew Hmm using formal names eh? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Eventually being the key word Well if I don't see some sun, eventually, you are are too blame. Hmm using formal names eh? lol He made me feel guilty yesterday for not realizing who he was on DBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Well if I don't see some sun, eventually, you are are too blame. He made me feel guilty yesterday for not realizing who he was on DBM. I did not Ok, maybe a lil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 09z locally run (LWX ARW) now has a decently organized cluster of storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I did not Ok, maybe a lil I knew it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 09z locally run (LWX ARW) now has a decently organized cluster of storms later. It looks like a conglomerate that comes off the mountains and slowly moves east... and does it take forever... by 0400z its finally clearing the DCA region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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