stormitecture Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Chase is on. Departure is ASAP (but that means around noon) from Germantown. Target is E. of I-81, west of I-70. We'll likely start south...work our way north. Hoping we'll be in the prime target by 3pm and be able to do some sit-n-wait for initiation. Today is gonna be an uber-challenge because of the mountain ridges. But the dynamics (per the RUC) are good enough today to justify the fuel expense. A little more organized today I think...and better Sprint coverage....so the stream should be up longer, better, etc. I may even try a different camera for better video quality (the 3CCD Panosonic I got). You know the link...it's in my sig. Probably have things rolling on the stream ~2pm to 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 May the gods favor you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Thursday seems to have some potential but it's obviously too far out for now. LWX afternoon discussion - .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIPRES MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WED NGT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY APPROACHES THU INTO FRI. THU HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. THIS MODEL RUN DEPICTS SFC LOPRES CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE A WARM FRONT IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND VARIABLES THIS FAR OUT TO JUMP ON A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRI. ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS...WEAK HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SFC SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THRUOUT THE PERIOD AND NO BIG HEAT WAVE IS IN SIGHT. && With a warm front near the area wouldn't that suggest a potential for an elevated tornado threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 Thursday seems to have some potential but it's obviously too far out for now. LWX afternoon discussion - With a warm front near the area wouldn't that suggest a potential for an elevated tornado threat? Yes probably. GFS does look good... I'd maybe want the low a bit more w but can't be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2011 Author Share Posted June 11, 2011 Yes probably. GFS does look good... I'd maybe want the low a bit more w but can't be picky. Something to keep us busy watching this week - and a week with less heat too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 thurs potential seems to have gone downhill... euro maybe gives us a little warm front action (prob not exciting) late wed then tries to torch us again.. gfs holds off the torch a little longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 thurs potential seems to have gone downhill... euro maybe gives us a little warm front action (prob not exciting) late wed then tries to torch us again.. gfs holds off the torch a little longer I guess given that it's still several days out we still have time - but those are definitely not good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 thurs potential seems to have gone downhill... euro maybe gives us a little warm front action (prob not exciting) late wed then tries to torch us again.. gfs holds off the torch a little longer Doesn't look like it gets hot again until next week on the GFS. Pretty nice all this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Doesn't look like it gets hot again until next week on the GFS. Pretty nice all this week. Yeah it holds the upper ridge at bay longer. Its a question of when not if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Yeah it holds the upper ridge at bay longer. Its a question of when not if. It would be nice if we could say that around here about something other than big heat:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Day 3 Slight Risk area in the southern parts of the region up through DC... decent shear, okay CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Day 3 Slight Risk area in the southern parts of the region up through DC... decent shear, okay CAPE. Maybe we can squeak out another DC split! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 this is a pretty map thurs has some real potential--looks pretty messy throughout much of the day though, so not sure we can totally realize it. would like the 500 wave to be a bit stronger too, might get a more defined surface reflection going etc. some time to fine tune though... talk of morning action then evening action. those are the big days. weekend ridge riders? i dunno if we get those anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 this is a pretty map thurs has some real potential--looks pretty messy throughout much of the day though, so not sure we can totally realize it. would like the 500 wave to be a bit stronger too, might get a more defined surface reflection going etc. some time to fine tune though... talk of morning action then evening action. those are the big days. weekend ridge riders? i dunno if we get those anymore. Well we still have time :\ Are we talking Tor potential or damaging winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Well we still have time :\ Are we talking Tor potential or damaging winds? Prob lean more latter for now tho some torn threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Prob lean more latter for now tho some torn threat too. Well they always say that some activity in the morning is good as long as there's spacing between waves of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I guarantee if we split the Thur event into its own thread it'll bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I think the Thursday threat will depend on how fast we can destabilize... though i did read in the LWX morning disco that both the GFS/NAM have a MCS dropping southward through our area... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I think the Thursday threat will depend on how fast we can destabilize... though i did read in the LWX morning disco that both the GFS/NAM have a MCS dropping southward through our area... we'll see Agreed - heard the same thing about the destabilization from the morning weather guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 NAM brings a weak line through tomorrow evening and then scattered showers/tstms Friday afternoon. Doesn't amount to much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 NAM brings a weak line through tomorrow evening and then scattered showers/tstms Friday afternoon. Doesn't amount to much though. [ctblizz] toss it [/ctblizz] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 drug addicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Slight risk is nearby for Friday as well. Meh we'll see I guess - that H5 map Ian posted earlier was pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 drug addicts We suffer withdrawl symptoms if we don't get severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 So given that we are crawling closer and closer to 1000 posts - do we just let this one keep running or do I have to start a new one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 So given that we are crawling closer and closer to 1000 posts - do we just let this one keep running or do I have to start a new one? i dont think it really matters especially in a relatively quiet thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 i dont think it really matters especially in a relatively quiet thread Agree - I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 both the 12z hi res ncep models look decent.. details to be worked out. how far north we get things might be a question... if we can get some sun/warmth a few supercells might be wandering for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 both the 12z hi res ncep models look decent.. details to be worked out. how far north we get things might be a question... if we can get some sun/warmth a few supercells might be wandering for a while. You are also a big persistence forecaster - and since we have been getting the DC shaft lately I think it would be prudent to believe there will be nothing in or north of DC. Would be very fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 You are also a big persistence forecaster - and since we have been getting the DC shaft lately I think it would be prudent to believe there will be nothing in or north of DC. Would be very fitting. This system is quite the different beast compared to what we have been seeing, though... what plays out is up for grabs. I'm not exactly "charged and ready to go" chase-wise, but I'm keeping an eye on it for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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