mappy Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lightning and thunder here in Cockeysville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Hard to tell which way its moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 2% TOR risk but no wind risk? Inconceivable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 TORNADO WARNING MDC029-035-191715- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.110519T1643Z-110519T1715Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1243 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NORTH CENTRAL QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND... * UNTIL 115 PM EDT * AT 1239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MORGNEC... OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CRUMPTON PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD FROM EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND PUBLIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Thanks Ed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Video of a funnel cloud in Church Hill MD posted on a weather site on Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Video of a funnel cloud in Church Hill MD posted on a weather site on Facebook: Looks like it probably had circulation on the surface, though we can't know for sure because of the trees in the way. Also: landspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like it probably had circulation on the surface, though we can't know for sure because of the trees in the way. Also: landspout. I thought landspout's were on the outflow boundary and usually formed from the ground up. This looks like a genuine tornado with the funnel at the base of the updraft, indicated by the lack of rain surrounding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Ellinwood, can you explain why that was a landspout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Whatever that storm is that is right now over Parkville (NE of Baltimore) it is a beaut. A few scattered reports of lowering with the clouds up that way. My wife and child driving home got a good view of it and said whatever it was with the clouds, it was well lowered, but they did not see any rotation. Not a warned storm, so I am guessing nothing to of interest, but pretty to look at as it passed downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like it probably had circulation on the surface, though we can't know for sure because of the trees in the way. Also: landspout. I was in the middle of a Hurricane Exercise when the call from Kent came in and they had reported damage with it. It started as a waterspout if I heard the report correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I thought landspout's were on the outflow boundary and usually formed from the ground up. This looks like a genuine tornado with the funnel at the base of the updraft, indicated by the lack of rain surrounding it. That would be a gustnado. On the rare occasion, more robust gustnadoes can actually get absorbed into the rotating updraft, attach to the cloud base and become a tornado. Ellinwood, can you explain why that was a landspout? I identified it as a landspout because the cell lacked a (distinguished) mesoscale rotation, most evident by the lack of a rotating wall cloud above the funnel. Since I do not see any wall cloud or any significant rotation within the clouds outside of the funnel, I'd say this was a landspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 OT but is anybody else hearing loud jets over the area the last 15 minutes? I've heard two passes that sounded awfully loud to be commercial jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 OT but is anybody else hearing loud jets over the area the last 15 minutes? I've heard two passes that sounded awfully loud to be commercial jets. Probably practicing for the Andrews Air Show this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Tomorrow could sneak up.. sorta subtle but the 500 pattern is not bad http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_030m.gif prob iso storms or so if they happen, but the sim radar looks to have a supercell over central va at 0z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Tomorrow could sneak up.. sorta subtle but the 500 pattern is not bad http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_030m.gif prob iso storms or so if they happen, but the sim radar looks to have a supercell over central va at 0z mon Well some severe would be better than almost getting stabbed or assaulted in Silver Spring - Which did almost happen to be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Slight Risk area for Monday extends over all of WV into parts of VA. MORNING CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE FRONT AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN OH SWWD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND SRN IL BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HINT AT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORECAST OF DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Going to come down to nowcasting for both Monday and Tuesday... NAM and GFS are showing two VERY different solutions for both days. Throw in the ECM and the SREF models and you've got a lot of possibilities pertaining to what could happen. SREF seems to be more in line with the GFS than the NAM. ----- SPC updates for Day 1+2 favoring Tuesday... 2% TOR risk throughout the region Day 1. I could see them bumping it to 5% on a nowcast basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Going to come down to nowcasting for both Monday and Tuesday... NAM and GFS are showing two VERY different solutions for both days. Throw in the ECM and the SREF models and you've got a lot of possibilities pertaining to what could happen. SREF seems to be more in line with the GFS than the NAM. ----- SPC updates for Day 1+2 favoring Tuesday... 2% TOR risk throughout the region Day 1. I could see them bumping it to 5% on a nowcast basis. Wow - looks pretty bullish on probs for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Posted on the other thread, but it belongs here.. This is Tuesday from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 North Carolina chase results: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 3 slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 3 slight risk. Day 3 Bust. We don't get severe weather around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 3 slight risk. I added Days 2 and 3 into the other thread I like PA/NY chances much better than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 3 Bust. We don't get severe weather around here. you're too young to pull off the crotchety thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 you're too young to pull off the crotchety thing. Unless you're BethesdaWx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 you're too young to pull off the crotchety thing. I'll try harder next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 3 slight risk. So.... you think we finally get some storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 So.... you think we finally get some storms? No. It will fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I have not done a full look, but I'm liking the build up in instability, plus good LIs, shear and a few other things. Have not looked much at the upper levels though. At the moment, looking at the timing....I'd probably head for Hagerstowns, turn up I-70 and get north-east of Hagerstown into PA and keep an eye out. Probably track storms north & east. PA road network works in our favor. But I'm still not super crazy about chasing locally...since I really need to start focusing on hurricane season. I'll probably let Mark go solo on Friday (or if he want to chase Fri, solo tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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