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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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TORNADO WARNING

MDC029-035-191715-

/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.110519T1643Z-110519T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1243 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

NORTH CENTRAL QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MORGNEC...

OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CRUMPTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD FROM EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND PUBLIC.

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Looks like it probably had circulation on the surface, though we can't know for sure because of the trees in the way.

Also: landspout.

I thought landspout's were on the outflow boundary and usually formed from the ground up. This looks like a genuine tornado with the funnel at the base of the updraft, indicated by the lack of rain surrounding it.

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Whatever that storm is that is right now over Parkville (NE of Baltimore) it is a beaut. A few scattered reports of lowering with the clouds up that way. My wife and child driving home got a good view of it and said whatever it was with the clouds, it was well lowered, but they did not see any rotation. Not a warned storm, so I am guessing nothing to of interest, but pretty to look at as it passed downtown.

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I thought landspout's were on the outflow boundary and usually formed from the ground up. This looks like a genuine tornado with the funnel at the base of the updraft, indicated by the lack of rain surrounding it.

That would be a gustnado. On the rare occasion, more robust gustnadoes can actually get absorbed into the rotating updraft, attach to the cloud base and become a tornado.

Ellinwood, can you explain why that was a landspout?

I identified it as a landspout because the cell lacked a (distinguished) mesoscale rotation, most evident by the lack of a rotating wall cloud above the funnel. Since I do not see any wall cloud or any significant rotation within the clouds outside of the funnel, I'd say this was a landspout.

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Tomorrow could sneak up.. sorta subtle but the 500 pattern is not bad

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_030m.gif

prob iso storms or so if they happen, but the sim radar looks to have a supercell over central va at 0z mon

Well some severe would be better than almost getting stabbed or assaulted in Silver Spring :whistle: - Which did almost happen to be today.

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Slight Risk area for Monday extends over all of WV into parts of VA.

MORNING CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS

SHOULD BE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE FRONT AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION

SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN OH SWWD INTO CENTRAL

INDIANA AND SRN IL BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RENEWED

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE

OH/TN VALLEYS. THE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH A

TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE

MODELS HINT AT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF

THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS

REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORECAST OF DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY

LAYER...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

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Going to come down to nowcasting for both Monday and Tuesday... NAM and GFS are showing two VERY different solutions for both days. Throw in the ECM and the SREF models and you've got a lot of possibilities pertaining to what could happen. SREF seems to be more in line with the GFS than the NAM.

-----

SPC updates for Day 1+2 favoring Tuesday... 2% TOR risk throughout the region Day 1. I could see them bumping it to 5% on a nowcast basis.

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Going to come down to nowcasting for both Monday and Tuesday... NAM and GFS are showing two VERY different solutions for both days. Throw in the ECM and the SREF models and you've got a lot of possibilities pertaining to what could happen. SREF seems to be more in line with the GFS than the NAM.

-----

SPC updates for Day 1+2 favoring Tuesday... 2% TOR risk throughout the region Day 1. I could see them bumping it to 5% on a nowcast basis.

Wow - looks pretty bullish on probs for Tuesday.

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I have not done a full look, but I'm liking the build up in instability, plus good LIs, shear and a few other things. Have not looked much at the upper levels though. At the moment, looking at the timing....I'd probably head for Hagerstowns, turn up I-70 and get north-east of Hagerstown into PA and keep an eye out. Probably track storms north & east. PA road network works in our favor.

But I'm still not super crazy about chasing locally...since I really need to start focusing on hurricane season. I'll probably let Mark go solo on Friday (or if he want to chase Fri, solo tomorrow).

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